The Indefinable Concept of Terrorism

As the concept of terrorism fulfils multiple functions, thebetter way to think of terrorism is not as a crime but as adifferent dimension of crime, a higher, more dangerous versionof crime, a kind of super-crime incorporating some of the characteristicsof warfare. There are at least eight primary factors that bearon terrorism: the factor of violence; the required intention;the nature of the victims; the connection of the offender tothe state; the justice and motive of their cause; the levelof organization; the element of theatre; and the absence ofguilt. However, one cannot draw from these variables a simple(or indeed even a complex) definition of terrorism. The reasonis that not all the factors apply all the time. Any proposeddefinition produces counterexamples. The way to think aboutterrorism is, therefore, to become aware of all the relevantfactors but not to expect that they will all be fulfilled inany particular case. The specific cases of terrorism are relatedthe way the members of a family are related. Most, but not all,might have the same eye shape. Others might have hair colouror the shape of their nose in common; still others might betall or short. One should try to picture a series of overlappingsets in which no set intersects with all the others. That isthe way our intuitions of terrorism operate.     

The evolution of health-policy making in Italy

An analysis of the dynamics of health care policy in Italy suggests that in recent years the pace of change in the health care system has accelerated. Although the basic features of universalism, comprehensiveness, and funding from general taxation have remained remarkably constant, the capacity to innovate policy tools and their settings and to take account of domestic and international experience seems to have increased. The political will and capacity to combat entrenched interests may also have increased, although implementation is still weak. The imperative to contain public expenditure has heavily conditioned health policy and will continue to do so. This has occurred mainly at the national level, but as the principal locus of health-policy making progressively shifts to the regions, so too will the constraining effect of this imperative move downward. If the decentralization process continues, problems could arise due to interregional differences in capacities to formulate and implement appropriate policies and to tackle special interest groups.     

Dynamic Tempered Transitions for Exploring Multimodal Posterior Distributions

George Casella Department of Statistics, University of Florida, Griffin-Floyd Hall, P.O. Box 118545, Gainesville, FL 32611 e-mail: casella{at}stat.ufl.edu Multimodal, high-dimension posterior distributions are wellknown to cause mixing problems for standard Markov chain MonteCarlo (MCMC) procedures; unfortunately such functional formsreadily occur in empirical political science. This is a particularlyimportant problem in applied Bayesian work because inferencesare made from finite intervals of the Markov chain path. Toaddress this issue, we develop and apply a new MCMC algorithmbased on tempered transitions of simulated annealing, addinga dynamic element that allows the chain to self-tune its annealingschedule in response to current posterior features. This importantfeature prevents the Markov chain from getting trapped in minormodal areas for long periods of time. The algorithm is appliedto a probabilistic spatial model of voting in which the objectivefunction of interest is the candidate's expected return. Wefirst show that such models can lead to complex target formsand then demonstrate that the dynamic algorithm easily handleseven large problems of this kind.     

Searching for new markers of endogenous steroid administration in athletes: "looking outside the metabolic box"

A simple means of detecting the abuse of steroids that also occur naturally is a problem facing doping control laboratories. Specific markers are required to allow the detection of the administration of these steroids. These markers are commonly measured using a set of data obtained from the screening of samples by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Doping control laboratories further need to confirm identified abuse using techniques such as gas chromatography-combustion-isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-C-IRMS). An interesting urinary species was found while following the pharmacokinetics and changes to the steroid profile from single and multiple oral doses of the International Olympic Committee/World Anti Doping Agency (IOC/WADA) prohibited substance, dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA). The urine samples collected from the administration studies were subject to GC-MS and GC-C-IRMS steroid analysis following cleanup by solid phase extraction techniques. A useful urinary product of DHEA administration was detected in the urine samples from each of the administration studies and was identified by GC-MS experiments to be 3alpha,5-cyclo-5alpha-androstan-6beta-ol-17-one (3alpha,5-cyclo). This compound occurs naturally but the concentrations of 3alpha,5-cyclo were elevated following both the single DHEA administration (up to 385 ng/mL) and multiple DHEA administrations (up to 1240 ng/mL), in relation to those observed prior to these administrations (70 and 80 ng/mL, respectively). A reference distribution of urine samples collected from elite athletes (n = 632) enabled the natural concentration range of 3alpha,5-cyclo to be established (0-280 ng/mL), with a mean concentration of 22 ng/mL. Based on this an upper 3alpha,5-cyclo concentration limit of 140 ng/mL is proposed as a GC-MS screening marker of DHEA abuse in athletes. GC-C-IRMS analysis revealed significant 13C depletion of 3alpha,5-cyclo following DHEA administration. In the single administration study, the delta13C value of 3alpha,5-cyclo changed from -24.3 per thousand to a minimum value of -31.1 per thousand at 9 h post-administration, before returning to its original value after 48 h. The multiple administration study had a minimum delta13C 3alpha,5-cyclo of -33.9 per thousand during the administration phase in contrast to the initial value of -24.2 per thousand. Preliminary studies have shown 3alpha,5-cyclo to most likely be produced from DHEA sulfate found at high levels in urine. The complementary use of GC-MS and GC-C-IRMS to identify new markers of steroid abuse and the application of screening criteria incorporating such markers could also be adapted by doping control laboratories to detect metabolites of androstenedione, testosterone and dihydrotestosterone abuse.     

Survey of methods for the rating of psychiatric impairment in Australia

One of the enduring clinical issues in the assessment of plaintiffs in personal injury and workers' compensation claims, as well as applicants for social security and disablement benefits, is that of the evaluation of impairment and work incapacity. Many writers on this topic confuse the concepts of impairment and disability, and similar confusion is reflected in a number of the rating methods that purport to evaluate impairment but in reality assess disability. In Australia there are 20 distinct statutory schemes for workers' compensation, motor accident compensation, and social security and other benefits, which utilise a variety of methods for the rating of psychiatric impairment. Recent legislative changes designed to restrict access to personal injury compensation at common law, which in two Australian State jurisdictions require the use of impairment rating scales, also specify the rating methods to be used in the assessment of psychiatric impairment. This article discusses the concepts of impairment and disability as defined by the World Health Organisation, and reviews the various methods for the rating of psychiatric impairment that are specified by statute in the federal and State jurisdictions in Australia.     

Public management reform and organizational performance: An empirical assessment of the U.K. Labour government's public service improvement strategy

We present the first empirical assessment of the U.K. Labour government's program of public management reform. This reform program is based on rational planning, devolution and delegation, flexibility and incentives, and enhanced choice. Measures of these variables are tested against external and internal indicators of organizational performance. The setting for the study is upper tier English local governments, and data are drawn from a multiple informant survey of 117 authorities. The statistical results indicate that planning, organizational flexibility, and user choice are associated with higher performance. Conclusions are drawn for the theory and practice of public management reform. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Organizational downsizing and age discrimination litigation: the influence of personnel practices and statistical evidence on litigation outcomes

The present study examined relationships between reduction-in-force (RIF) personnel practices, presentation of statistical evidence, and litigation outcomes. Policy capturing methods were utilized to analyze the components of 115 federal district court opinions involving age discrimination disparate treatment allegations and organizational downsizing. Univariate analyses revealed meaningful links between RIF personnel practices, use of statistical evidence, and judicial verdict. The defendant organization was awarded summary judgment in 73% of the claims included in the study. Judicial decisions in favor of the defendant organization were found to be significantly related to such variables as formal performance appraisal systems, termination decision review within the organization, methods of employee assessment and selection for termination, and the presence of a concrete layoff policy. The use of statistical evidence in ADEA disparate treatment litigation was investigated and found to be a potentially persuasive type of indirect evidence. Legal, personnel, and evidentiary ramifications are reviewed, and a framework of downsizing mechanics emphasizing legal defensibility is presented.     

Protective Orders and Domestic Violence: Risk Factors for Re-Abuse

One of the few legal tools for protecting victims of domestic violence is the civil Protection Order (PO). How effective they were in preventing re-abuse was analyzed by examining court and police records from 210 couples in which female victims (or applicants) filed POs against their violent partners. Police records for 2 years prior and two years following the issuance of a PO were reviewed. Results indicated a significant decline in the probability of abuse following a PO. Prior to filing a PO, 68% of the women reported physical violence. After filing, only 23% reported physical violence. Several risk factors were assessed and it was found that very low SES women were more likely to report re-abuse as were African-Americans.