The 1984 election as Anthony downs and Stanley Kelley might interpret it

This paper is an analysis of two rational choice theories of elections. Anthony Downs and Stanley Kelley's theories yield complementary interpretations of the 1984 U. S. election. Reagan's victory was based on both prospective and retrospective judgments as well as on candidate and policy considerations. Reagan won that element of an incumbent's reelection that is a referendum on his performance as president. However, people also voted on the basis of domestic and foreign policy preferences for the second term. On these issues voters preferred Mondale as much as Reagan. Reagan's victory owed remarkably little to his conservative agenda and to a warm regard for his personal qualities as a leader. His landslide was deceptive. The two Reagan victories were among the weakest of the six landslides of the postwar period by Kelley's test of decisiveness. The Reagan elections have not set the United States on the course of a long-term conservative agenda in either domestic or foreign affairs.     

Voting for ‘Sin’ in Kansas

We would like to thank our colleagues Nancy Snyder and William Terrell for comments and suggestions. The assistance of Ron Farha and Michael Webb is gratefully acknowledged, as is the patience of the staff in the Elections Office of the Office of the Secretary of State, Topeka, Kansas. Any errors or omissions are, of course, the responsibility of the authors.     

A. Reviews: general

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARI (TA'RIKH AL‐RUSUL WA ‘L‐MULÜK). [An annotated translation] (Bibliotheca Persica) (SUNY Series in Near Eastern Studies):

VOLUME XXVII: THE ‘ABBASID REVOLUTION [A.D. 743–750/A.H. 126–132]. Translated and annotated by JOHN ALDEN WILLIAMS. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1985. xiv, 233pp.

VOLUME XXXV: THE CRISIS OF THE ‘ABBASID CALIPHATE: [THE CALIPHATES OF AL‐MUSTA'IN AND AL‐MUTAZZ A.D. 862–869/A.H. 248–255]. Translated and annotated by GEORGE SALIBA. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1985. xii, 187pp.

VOLUME XXXVIII: THE RETURN OF THE CALIPHATE TO BAGHDAD: [THE CALIPHATES OF AL‐MUTADID, AL‐MUKTAFI AND AL‐MUQTADIR A.D. 892–915/A.H. 279–302]. Translated and annotated by FRANZ ROSENTHAL. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1985. xxii, [2], 239pp.

VOLUME XVIII: BETWEEN CIVIL WARS: THE CALIPHATE OF MU'AWIYAH [A.D. 661–680/A.H. 40–60]. Translated and annotated by MICHAEL G. MORONY. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1987. xi, 261pp.

AN INTRODUCTION TO SHI'I ISLAM: THE HISTORY AND DOCTRINES OF TWELVER SHI'ISM. By MOOJAN MOMEN. New Haven & London, Yale University Press, xxii, 397pp.

JEWISH LIFE UNDER ISLAM: JERUSALEM IN THE SIXTEENTH CENTURY. By AMNON COHEN. London, Harvard University Press, 1984.

ISLAMIC ART AND ARCHAEOLOGY: Collected Papers. By RICHARD ETTINGHAUSEN. Prepared and edited by MIRIAM ROSEN AYALON. Berlin, Gebr. Mann Verlag, 1984. 1318pp.

THEMES FROM NORTHERN SUDAN. By AHMED AL‐SHAHI. (Brismes Series No 1.) London, Ithaca Press, 1986 152pp. £15.00.

SYRIA UNDER ASSAD: DOMESTIC CONSTRAINTS AND REGIONAL RISKS. Edited by MOSHE MAOZ and AVNER YASIV. London, Croom Helm, 1986. 273pp., maps, notes. £25.00

THE STRUGGLE FOR THE ARAB WORLD: EGYPT'S NASSER AND THE ARAB LEAGUE. By TAWFIG Y. HASOU. London, Kegan Paul International, 1985. 228pp., appendices, notes, bibliography. £25.00

DESPATCHES FROM DAMASCUS: GILBERT MACKERETH AND BRITISH POLICY IN THE LEVANT, 1933–1939. By MICHAEL G. FRY and ITAMAR RABINOVICH. Jerusalem, University of Southern California and Tel Aviv University, 1985. 225pp.

THE MAKING OF MODERN LEBANON. By HELENA COBBAN. London, Hutchinson, 1985, 248pp., illus., maps, bibliography. £6.95.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN EDUCATION IN THE GULF. By SHEIKHA AL‐MISNAD. London, Ithaca Press, 1986. 386pp., tables, appendices, bibliography. £24.95.

SAUDI ARABIA: THE CEASELESS QUEST FOR SECURITY. By NADAV SAFRAN. London, Harvard University Press, 1985. 542pp., map, tables, notes, appendices, bibliography. £21.25.

THE MANPOWER IN KUWAIT. By SHAMLAN Y. ALESSA. London, Kegan Paul International, 1981. 140pp., tables, notes, bibliography. £30.00.

OMAN AND MUSCAT: AN EARLY MODERN HISTORY. By PATRICIA RISSO. London, Croom Helm, 1986. 258pp., glossary, maps, notes, bibliography. £19.95.

TUYUR ‘UMAN (Birds of Oman). By MICHAEL GALLAGHER and MARTIN W. WOODCOCK. London, Quartet, 1985. 308pp., coloured illustrations, maps, bibliography. £35.00.     

B. Reviews: general

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARl (TA'RIKH AL‐RUSUL WA ‘L‐MULÜK). (An annotated translation] (Bibliotheca Persica) (SUNY Series in Near Eastern Studies):

VOLUME II: PROPHETS AND PATRIARCHS. Translated and annotated by WILLIAM M. BRINNER. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1987. xii, 207pp.

VOLUME IV: THE ANCIENT KINGDOMS. Translated and annotated by MOSHE PERLMANN. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1987. xii, 205pp.

THE FIRST DYNASTY OF ISLAM: THE UMAYYAD CALIPHATE ad 661–750. By G.R. HAWTTNG. London and Sydney, Croom Helm, 1986. xx, 141pp., 4 genealogical tables, 2 maps. £19.95.

THE ADVENTURES OF IBN BATTUTA, A MUSLIM TRAVELLER OF THE 14TH CENTURY. By ROSS E. DUNN. London, Croom Helm, 1986. xvi, 357 pages, 12 maps. £22.50

TRADE AND CIVILISATION IN THE INDIAN OCEAN. AN ECONOMIC HISTORY FROM THE RISE OF ISLAM TO 1750. By K..N. CHAUDHURI. Cambridge, C.U.P., 1985. xiv + 269 pp. £25.00 Hardback, £8.95 Paperback.

MAMLUK JERUSALEM: AN ARCHITECTURAL STUDY. By MICHAEL HAMILTON BURGOYNE and DONALD S. RICHARDS. London, World of Islam Festival Trust for the British School of Archaeology in Jerusalem, 1987. xii, 623pp. £115.00

ISLAMIC TECHNOLOGY: AN ILLUSTRATED HISTORY. By AHMAD Y. AL‐HASSAN and DONALD R. HILL. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press/Paris, Unesco, 1986. xiv, [ii], 304pp. 165 illustrations, 1 map. £25.00.

OIL, INDUSTRIALISATION AND DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARAB GULF STATES. By ATIF A. KUBURSI, London, Croom Helm, 1984. 144 pp. Paperback.

BRITAIN'S INFORMAL EMPIRE IN THE MIDDLE EAST: A CASE STUDY OF IRAQ 1929–1941. By DANIEL SILVERFARB. New York: Oxford University Press, 1986. xii + 200 pp. $24.95 cloth.

IRAQ BETWEEN THE TWO WORLD WARS: THE CREATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF A NATIONALIST IDEOLOGY. By REEVA S. SIMON. New York: Columbia University Press, 1986. xviii + 233 pp. $30.00 cloth.

SADDAM'S IRAQ: REVOLUTION OR REACTION? London, Zed Press, 1986, for CARDRI (Committee against repression and for democratic rights in Iraq). 254pp. Paper.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHATT AL‐ARAB BOUNDARY DISPUTE. By RICHARD SCHOFIELD, London, MENAS Press, 1986. 111 pp. Paper.

JORDAN IN THE 1967 WAR. By SAMIR A. MUTAWI. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1987. 228pp. £22.50.

UNDER SIEGE: P.L.O. DECISIONMAKING DURING THE 1982 WAR. By RASHID KHALIDI. New York, Columbia University Press, 1986. 241 pp.

EMPIRE ON THE NILE. THE ANGLO‐EGYPTIAN SUDAN, 1898–1934. By M.W. DALY. Cambridge University Press, 1986. xv + 524 pp. + Map and 21 illustrations. £40.00.

ISLAM AND THE THIRD UNIVERSAL THEORY: THE RELIGIOUS THOUGHT OF MU'AMMAR AL‐QADHDHAFI. By MAHMOUD MUSTAFA AYOUB. London, KPI Ltd., 1987. 155pp.

APPROACHES TO ISLAM. (World Religions in Education Series.) By RICHARD TAMES. London, John Murray, 1982. 264pp. P/B £4.95

MORALS AND MANNERS IN ISLAM. By MARWAN IBRAHIM AL‐KAYSI. Leicester, The Islamic Foundation, 1986. 200pp. H/B £9.50 P/B £4.50

REMEMBRANCE AND PRAYER. By MUHAMMAD AL‐GHAZAALI. Translated by Yusuf Talal de Lorenzo. Leicester, The Islamic Foundation, 1986. 232pp. H/B £10.00 P/B £4.95

THE ISLAMIC WAY OF LIFE. By SAYYID ABUL A'LA MAWDUDI. Edited by Khurshid Ahmad and Khurram Murad. Leicester, The Islamic Foundation, 1986. 80pp. H/B £6.50 P/B £2.00

ADMINISTRATIVE DEVELOPMENT: AN ISLAMIC PERSPECTIVE. By A. AL‐BURAEY. London, KPI Ltd., 1985.470pp.

ARAB SOCIETY. Edited by SAMIH K. FARSOUN. London, Croom Helm, 1985. 125pp.

WOMEN OF SAUDI ARABIA. By SORAYA ALTO'RKI. New York, Columbia University Press, 1986. 183pp. $30.00

THE DEVELOPMENT OF EARLY ARABIC DRAMA 1847–1900. By MOHAMED A. AL‐KHOZAI. London, Longman, 1984. ix, 245pp. £7.95.

FROM NATIONALISM TO REVOLUTIONARY ISLAM. Edited by SAID AMIR ARJOMAND. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1984. 256pp.

OCCIDENTOSIS: A PLAGUE FROM THE WEST. By JALAL AL‐I AHMAD (translated by R. CAMPBELL, edited by HAMID ALGAR). Berkeley, Ca, Mizan Press, 1984. 160pp. $5.95.

THE RISING OF AL‐HUSAYN: ITS IMPACT ON THE CONSCIOUSNESS OF MUSLIM SOCIETY. By SHAYKH MUHAMMAD MAHDI SHAMS AL‐DIN (translated by I.K.A. HOWARD). London, Muhammadi Trust (distributed by Routledge and Kegan Paul), 1985. 218pp.

IRAN SINCE THE REVOLUTION: INTERNAL DYNAMICS, REGIONAL CONFLICTS AND THE SUPERPOWERS. Edited by BARRY ROSEN. (Brooklyn College Studies on Societies in Change, No. 47.) New York, Columbia University Press, 1985. 187pp., 27 plates, 4 maps.

IN IRAN: STUDIES IN BÁBÍ AND BAHÁ'Í HISTORY. Volume 3. Edited by PETER SMITH. Los Angeles, Kalimat Press, 1986. 237pp. HC $19.95.     

Does agency competition improve the quality of policy analysis? Evidence from OMB and CBO fiscal projections

Public management scholars often claim that agency competition provides an effective institutional check on monopoly authority, and hence, leads to improvement of administrative performance in public sector agencies. This logic was central for creating the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) in 1975 to challenge the policy information provided by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). We challenge this conventional wisdom by demonstrating that CBO has failed to enhance the quality of U.S. fiscal policy analysis on its own terms; nor has it spurred improvements in OMB's performance. Our empirical results indicate that the quality of OMB's fiscal projections has often deteriorated since the establishment of CBO as a rival bureau. We also show that both public and private information is being shared by these agencies to produce a similar caliber of task outputs. The broader implications of our study indicate that although politicians face incentives to employ agency competition in governmental settings, this type of bureaucratic strategy does not necessarily enhance the quality of administrative performance. © 2006 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management     

Particularism versus Universalism in the Brazilian Public Administration Literature

The author draws on the Brazilian public administration literature to discuss the conflict between the need to remain open to lessons from elsewhere, while at the same time remaining grounded in a particular local context. The article begins by presenting calls by a number of Brazilian public administration scholars for what might be termed an "administrative particularism," or an assertion that universal lessons do not apply in the discipline. This is followed by a discussion of the challenges that these and other Brazilian public administration scholars identify. Further discussion will suggest these challenges, and many of the solutions most commonly offered for them, imply that, far from a uniquely Brazilian public administration, the country seeks to move closer to the model of public administration practiced elsewhere, especially in the developed world.