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AbstractDespite intense scrutiny and promised fixes resulting from intelligence ‘transformation’ efforts, erroneous analytic assessments persist and continue to dominate news coverage of the US intelligence community. Existing analytic training teaches analysts about common cognitive biases and then aims to correct them with structured analytic techniques. On its face, this approach is eminently reasonable; on close inspection, incomplete and imbalanced. Current training is anchored in a mid-twentieth century understanding of psychology that focuses on checking over-confidence and rigidity but ignores the problems of under-confidence and excessive volatility. Moreover it has never been validated against objective benchmarks of good judgment. We propose a new approach: (a) adopting scientifically validated content and regularly testing training to avoid institutionalizing new dogmas; (b) incentivizing analysts to view training guidelines as means to the end of improved accuracy, not an end in itself. 相似文献
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George Potter 《British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies》2016,43(1):21-39
A questioning of national narratives, internal economic struggles and external existential threats have all worked to characterize the current moment in Jordan as one of tension and instability, marked by price hikes, protests and refugee crises. Over the past decade, an emergent cinema industry has served as one means by which these struggles have been chronicled, centring national attention on the diverse communities and economic struggles within Amman in films such as When Monaliza Smiled. Conversely, 50 years earlier, the first Jordanian film, Struggle in Jerash, responded to another period of crisis in Jordanian history by attempting to assert a nationalist narrative in defence of the Hashemite Kingdom’s East Bank identity under King Hussein. By comparing Struggle in Jerash and When Monaliza Smiled, this article will demonstrate how films from two periods of crisis responded to challenges to national narratives in opposite ways, with Struggle in Jerash working to help construct East Bank Jordanian nationalism, and When Monaliza Smiled attempting to deconstruct the narrative. These two films will also be shown to be microcosms of the struggle over national narratives from their respective eras. 相似文献