Die Prognosegüte von Wahlbörsen und Meinungsumfragen zur Bundestagswahl 2005

In the aftermath of an election it has become customary to systematically compare the predictive accuracy of polls and political stock exchanges. However, most of these analyses do not emerge from real predictions. In this research note, we compare the predictive performance of a time-series model to the accuracy of polls and a political stock market in the 2005 german Bundestag (general) election. Our analysis shows that Wahl$treet, the most significant german political stock exchange, was again closest to the actual results leaving commercial polling institutes behind. Due to the exceptionally large errors of most institutes we briefly discuss how such inaccurate forecasts might affect voting behaviour in the light of social choice theory.     

Death during theft from electric utilities

Utilities that supply power are subject to theft of service and theft of hardware used to provide service. Individuals who try to steal from a power utility risk electrocution. We conducted a retrospective study of all individuals examined by the Jefferson County Coroner Medical Examiner Office from January 1981 through December 2001 and found that 8 individuals died trying to steal from a power utility. All decedents were men, with an average age of 33 years. Seven decedents were stealing copper, and 1 was stealing electricity. Only 1 decedent survived long enough to be admitted to a hospital. Five decedents were intoxicated, 3 with ethanol, 1 with cocaine, and 1 with both cocaine and ethanol. Seven decedents sustained electrical burns in keeping with the high voltage to which they were subjected. The unburned decedent died of laceration of the aorta at its origin from the heart, an injury sustained when the decedent fell from the power pole. All 8 decedents attempted their theft during daylight. Items found in the decedent's pockets, the presence of a ladder nearby, or the presence of electrical tools around the body may help to establish the attempted act of theft.     

Criminal law and behavioral law and economics: observations on the neglected role of uncertainty in deterring crime

Criminal sanctions are usually public, stable and predictable.In contrast, the practices governing the determination of theprobability of detection and conviction reinforce uncertainty.We invoke psychological insights to illustrate that criminalsprefer a scheme in which the size of the sentence is uncertainwhile the probability of detection and conviction is certain.Consequently, the choice to increase certainty with respectto the size of the sentence and to decrease certainty with respectto the probability of detection and conviction can be justifiedon the grounds that such a scheme is disfavored by criminalsand consequently has better deterrent effects.     

‘Three Chinas’ and international organizations after 1997

This article analyzes the effects of the transfer of Hong Kong's sovereignty to China in 1997 on the participation of Hong Kong and Taiwan in international organizations. It identifies the conditions under which China tolerates co‐existence with Taiwan as members of eleven intergovernmental organizations as of 1996. It concludes with two observations: one, international organizations are not monolithic entities; two, although China has overwhelming influence over Hong Kong's participation in these organizations, it depends also on how the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is going to manage its relations with China.     

Debt and the Local Economy: Problems in Benchmarking Local Government Debt Affordability

Debt creation imposes an obligation to repay borrowed funds from a wealth base that for most local governments is capitalized in property values. Therefore, the ability to afford debt is tied to the local economy, a factor often overlooked by localities in the analyses of their own position. However, debt levels are also relative, as the many debt affordability studies among governments and by bond rating agencies suggest. We argue here that economic concentration and interjurisdictional coordination fundamentally provide a broader analytical approach to the question a locality asks: can we afford more debt?     

Institutional technology and economic growth

An endogenous model of constitutional changes and economic growth links the temporal decline in private market returns when technology is constant with the returns to rule changes realized in a political market. There is a steady state constitutional setting in which all rule changes have been incorporated that is analytically equivalent to the neoclassical steady state. As in the neoclassical model, private-sector technological progress postpones the steady state. To the extent the original constitutional setting promotes innovation, the evolutionary process toward the steady state is delayed. The model yields a theory of revolution based on forces leading to the adoption of inefficient changes in the constitutional setting.     

The intergenerational transmission of running away: Childhood experiences of the parents of runaways

Research into the etiology of running away has long provided evidence for the influence of family factors such as abuse, parent-child conflict, and child stress on an adolescent's decision to leave home. This paper offers evidence for the possibility that running away may be deeply entrenched in patterns of family interaction that extend across generations. Using data from the National Incidence Study of Missing, Abducted, Runaway, and Throwaway Children (NISMART), the influence of parents' own childhood experiences with running away on the behaviors of their children is illustrated. The importance of examining the influence of such intergenerational transmission factors, separate and in addition to more traditional predictors of running away, is demonstrated.This research was supported in part by funds from the Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention under Contract No. 91-JN-CX-0005. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the meetings of the American Society of Criminology in New Orleans, Louisiana, November 1992.Received a Ph.D. in sociology from the University of New Hampshire. Present research interests are in the area of criminal victimization of children.Received a doctoral degree in sociology from the University of New Hampshire. Current research interests focus on missing and abducted children.