The Effects of Capital Mobility, Trade Openness, and Democracy on Social Spending in Latin America, 1980–1999

Empirical studies measuring the impact of globalization on social spending have appeared recently in leading journals. This study seeks to improve upon previous work by (1) employing a more sophisticated and comprehensive measure of financial openness; (2) using a more accurate measure of trade openness based on purchasing power parities; and (3) relying on social spending data that are more complete than those used by previous studies on Latin America. Our estimates suggest that several empirical patterns reported in previous work deserve a second look. We find that trade openness has a positive association with education and social security expenditures, that financial openness does not constrain government outlays for social programs, and that democracy has a strong positive association with social spending, particularly on items that bolster human capital formation.     

A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election

Recently, we proposed an original statistical model for forecasting general elections in the United Kingdom, based on the observation of a few key indicators of the political and economic system. That vote function model was tested against the results of the 2001 general election. Here we evaluate the results of that test, and offer an appropriately revised model for the forecasting of the upcoming 2005 general election. According to our forecast, a Labour victory appears the most likely outcome.     

An Empirical Investigation into Measurement and Determinants of Food Security

We examine the association between calorie-based indicators and experiential indicators of food security using data from slum households of Kolkata surveyed in 2010–2011. Experiential indicator is constructed following the United States Household Food Security Survey Module. Calorie based indicator is constructed using household-specific calorie norms. Modelling techniques take account of potential endogeneity in the relationship. The two indicators are aligned in the same direction implying more accurate targeting. However, there is a lack of one-to-one correspondence between the two measures and the drivers of calorie deprivation and food insecurity also differ, suggesting a one-size-fits-all policy cannot address both concerns simultaneously.