“Just give me a number!” Practical values for the social discount rate

A major reason the quality of cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) varies widely is inconsistent use of the social discount rate (SDR). This article offers guidance about the choice of the SDR. Namely, we recommend the following procedures: If the project is intragenerational (does not have effects beyond 50 years) and there is no crowding out of private investment, then discount all flows at 3.5 percent; if the project is intragenerational and there is some crowding out of investment, then weight investment flows by the shadow price of capital of 1.1 and then discount at 3.5 percent; if the project is intergenerational and there is no crowding out of investment, then use a time‐declining scale of discount rates; if the project is intergenerational and investment is crowded out, then convert investment flows during the first 50 years to consumption equivalents using a shadow price of 1.1, and then discount all of these flows at 3.5 percent, and discount all flows after the 50th year using time‐declining rates. We then compare current discounting practices of U.S. federal agencies with our estimates. Consistent use of the recommended rates would eliminate arbitrary choices of discount rates and would lead to better public sector decision‐making. © 2004 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Conducting Meta-Analyses of Evaluations of Government-Funded Training Programs

Government‐funded training programs in the United States have often been subject to rigorous evaluation. Indeed, many of these programs have been evaluated with random assignment, although sophisticated quasi‐experimental methods have also been used. Until very recently, however, there has been little systematic attempt to use the cumulative information vested in these evaluations to attempt determine which kinds of programs work best in which setting and with respect to which types of client. Meta‐analysis—a set of statistical procedures for systematically synthesizing findings from separate studies—can, in theory at least, address these and other topics that evaluation of individual programs cannot. This article discusses the steps in conducting such a synthesis, summarizes the results of three recently conducted meta‐analyses of training and welfare‐to‐work programs, identifies limitations to the meta‐analytic approach, and considers ways in which some of these limitations can be overcome.     

The changing role of social experiments in policy analysis

Since 1968 more than thirty-five social policy experiments have been conducted in the United States. During this period through 1976 these experiments were generally long-term, large-scale tests of major new programs; thereafter, experiments became markedly more modest in scope. Although hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on the earlier programs, the experiments probably had only a negligible impact on policies. This result stemmed from a variety of factors: Social testing actually tends to exert a conservative influence on policymaking; and the time required to complete experiments and interpret results is often incompatible with the needs of policy makers. In addition, test results are often not effectively communicated to Congress, the administration and the public, and even when the results are conveyed, policy makers are frequently skeptical about the soundness of the methodologies employed. If recent experimental programs are to exert more influence on policymaking, program oficials will need to address these dificulties.     

Imprisonment and unemployment: A comment

The current state of research dealing with the relationship between the unemployment rate and the imprisonment rate is assessed, and directions for further research are suggested.     

Structure and validity of people in my life: A self-report measure of attachment in late childhood

No self-report measure of attachment is well validated for middle-childhood. This study examined the validity and factor structure of the People in My Life (PIML) measure in 320 urban, fifth and sixth graders. Validity analyses consisted of correlational analyses between PIML subscales and the Child Behavior Checklist, Delinquency Rating Scale for Self and Others, Heath Resources Inventory, and Reynolds Child Depression Scale. Validity correlations were consistent with a-priori hypotheses. Confirmatory factor analyses consisted of comparison of model fit indices between seven models. Two models fit the data well and both models were consistent with the traditionally used PIML scoring protocol. Moreover, both models were consistent with the Inventory of Parent and Peer Attachment (IPPA), on which the PIML is modeled, as well as the theoretical underpinnings of attachment in childhood. The PIML and IPPA provide instruments for obtaining a continuous self-report measure of attachment from middle-childhood through adulthood.