Sex offender management using the polygraph: a critical review

Reducing recidivism is a central goal in the treatment of sex offenders. In Europe, there is an increased interest in using the polygraph ("lie detector") as a tool in the treatment and risk assessment of convicted sex offenders. This interest originated from optimistic reports by American clinicians who argued that polygraph testing in the treatment of sex offenders is akin to urine analysis in the treatment of drug addiction. In this article, we critically examine the validity and utility of post-conviction sex offender polygraph testing. Our review shows that the available evidence for the claims about the clinical potential of polygraph tests is weak, if not absent. We conclude that portraying post-conviction polygraph testing as analogous to urine analysis is inaccurate, misleading, and ultimately, risky.     

Modeling Hostage-Taking: On Reputation and Strategic Rationality of Terrorists

This article takes a fresh look at hostage-taking from a game theoretic standpoint. A new model is developed that shows why conventional government deterrence strategies may fail.     

Oil and the duration of dictatorships

Theoretical models do not reach an unambiguous conclusion concerning the effects of natural resource endowment on the duration of dictatorial regimes. We assess empirically, for the first time, the relationship between oil endowment and the duration of autocratic leaders. Using a dataset comprising information for 106 dictators, our empirical analysis indicates that dictators in countries which are relatively better endowed in terms of oil tend to stay longer in office. The result is robust to changes in the definition of dictatorial regimes and in the specifications used in the econometric analysis.     

Gründe für wechselndes Wahlverhalten: Helfen neue Instrumente Licht in das Dunkel zu bringen?

Attempts to analyze the reasons for vote switching between consecutive elections have been in general quite disappointing. On the one hand, this result may be attributed to idiosyncrasies of vote switching; on the other hand, it may be a product of not fully adequate research strategies. This paper explores the second possibility. First, we suggest to study switchers not as a whole, but to distinguish different groups of switchers according to the political relevance of the different kinds of switching. Secondly, we discuss whether the analysis of switching could benefit from the use of panel data instead of cross-sectional data: the operationalization of switching by panel data should be superior to the widely used recall method. The hypotheses derived in the theoretical discussion receive strong support from empirical evidence from the German general election of 1998: both the differentiated measurement of switchers and the use of panel data enhance analysis of switching based on cleavage theory and the Michigan model. More generally, we conclude that our understanding of this dynamic element in electoral politics depends on the methodological adequacy of research.     

„Antinomien des demokratischen Friedens“

Both the monadic and the dyadic versions of the theory of the “emocratic peace” borrow their assumptions on causal links from different metatheories: rationalism, constructivism, and institutionalism. A thorough analysis of the causal hypothesis involved reveals that the linkage between democracy and peaceful behaviour is not as cogent as either version would have it. This verdict applies if we remain within each of the metatheories supplying the causal assumptions, and even more so if we analyse the combined assumptions of the metatheories. In either case, hypotheses can logically be deduced that would either predict specific reasons for being aggressive towards non-democracies or the neutralization of the particular war-preventing empathy democracies are supposed to develop towards each other. Both variants of the theory thus produce antinomies that are not recognized by the theory. The theory, it turnes out, is underspecified. A major task would be to theorize about the contextual conditions under which democracy does indeed produce peaceful behaviour, towards other democracies or even erga omnes.     

The European refugee crisis,party competition,and voters’ responses in Germany

Studies show that globalisation creates political potentials that can transform electoral competition in Western societies. The specific process of how these potentials become effective is not completely understood. It is argued in the article that attention-grabbing events can trigger the transformation of electoral competition as they force actors to take clear positions and thereby allow citizens to align their partisan preferences and policy attitudes. The article analyses the case of German parties’ reaction to the arrival of large numbers of refugees at Europe’s borders in 2015/16. Using panel data that bracket this event, it is shown how German citizens responded to party behaviour by changing partisan preferences on the basis of prior immigration attitudes. The so-called refugee crisis may thus have been a critical juncture transforming party competition in Germany. As such, the crisis represents a striking example of how events may focus attention on a new policy dimension and catalyse the evolution of new cleavages.     

Das novellierte “EEG 09” unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Biomasseanlagen

Zusammenfassung  Das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz (EEG) ist der Nachfolger des Stromeinspeisungsgesetzes, welches erstmalig am 1.1.1991 in Kraft getreten ist. Mit Erlass des Stromeinspeisungsgesetzes hatte der Gesetzgeber das Ziel verfolgt, den Anteil erneuerbaren Energien an der Energieversorgung st?rker auszuweiten. Das Stromeinspeisungsgesetz und das nachfolgende EEG hat zu einem starken Ausbau der regenerativen Energien geführt. In den neunziger Jahren sind die Windkraftkapazit?ten erheblich ausgebaut worden. Nach dem Inkrafttreten des EEG 04 hat der Ausbau von Anlagen zur Erzeugung von Strom aus solarer Strahlungsenergie und aus Biomasse stark zugenommen. Die Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien (Fotovoltaik, Bioenergie, Windenergie und Wasserkraft) ist von 18,4 TWh im Jahr 1990 auf 87,5 TWh im Jahr 2007 gestiegen. Der Anteil erneuerbarer Energien am Energieverbrauch lag 2007 bei 14,2 %.