A. Reviews: general

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARI (TA'RIKH AL‐RUSUL WA ‘L‐MULÜK). [An annotated translation] (Bibliotheca Persica) (SUNY Series in Near Eastern Studies):

VOLUME XXVII: THE ‘ABBASID REVOLUTION [A.D. 743–750/A.H. 126–132]. Translated and annotated by JOHN ALDEN WILLIAMS. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1985. xiv, 233pp.

VOLUME XXXV: THE CRISIS OF THE ‘ABBASID CALIPHATE: [THE CALIPHATES OF AL‐MUSTA'IN AND AL‐MUTAZZ A.D. 862–869/A.H. 248–255]. Translated and annotated by GEORGE SALIBA. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1985. xii, 187pp.

VOLUME XXXVIII: THE RETURN OF THE CALIPHATE TO BAGHDAD: [THE CALIPHATES OF AL‐MUTADID, AL‐MUKTAFI AND AL‐MUQTADIR A.D. 892–915/A.H. 279–302]. Translated and annotated by FRANZ ROSENTHAL. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1985. xxii, [2], 239pp.

VOLUME XVIII: BETWEEN CIVIL WARS: THE CALIPHATE OF MU'AWIYAH [A.D. 661–680/A.H. 40–60]. Translated and annotated by MICHAEL G. MORONY. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1987. xi, 261pp.

AN INTRODUCTION TO SHI'I ISLAM: THE HISTORY AND DOCTRINES OF TWELVER SHI'ISM. By MOOJAN MOMEN. New Haven & London, Yale University Press, xxii, 397pp.

JEWISH LIFE UNDER ISLAM: JERUSALEM IN THE SIXTEENTH CENTURY. By AMNON COHEN. London, Harvard University Press, 1984.

ISLAMIC ART AND ARCHAEOLOGY: Collected Papers. By RICHARD ETTINGHAUSEN. Prepared and edited by MIRIAM ROSEN AYALON. Berlin, Gebr. Mann Verlag, 1984. 1318pp.

THEMES FROM NORTHERN SUDAN. By AHMED AL‐SHAHI. (Brismes Series No 1.) London, Ithaca Press, 1986 152pp. £15.00.

SYRIA UNDER ASSAD: DOMESTIC CONSTRAINTS AND REGIONAL RISKS. Edited by MOSHE MAOZ and AVNER YASIV. London, Croom Helm, 1986. 273pp., maps, notes. £25.00

THE STRUGGLE FOR THE ARAB WORLD: EGYPT'S NASSER AND THE ARAB LEAGUE. By TAWFIG Y. HASOU. London, Kegan Paul International, 1985. 228pp., appendices, notes, bibliography. £25.00

DESPATCHES FROM DAMASCUS: GILBERT MACKERETH AND BRITISH POLICY IN THE LEVANT, 1933–1939. By MICHAEL G. FRY and ITAMAR RABINOVICH. Jerusalem, University of Southern California and Tel Aviv University, 1985. 225pp.

THE MAKING OF MODERN LEBANON. By HELENA COBBAN. London, Hutchinson, 1985, 248pp., illus., maps, bibliography. £6.95.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERN EDUCATION IN THE GULF. By SHEIKHA AL‐MISNAD. London, Ithaca Press, 1986. 386pp., tables, appendices, bibliography. £24.95.

SAUDI ARABIA: THE CEASELESS QUEST FOR SECURITY. By NADAV SAFRAN. London, Harvard University Press, 1985. 542pp., map, tables, notes, appendices, bibliography. £21.25.

THE MANPOWER IN KUWAIT. By SHAMLAN Y. ALESSA. London, Kegan Paul International, 1981. 140pp., tables, notes, bibliography. £30.00.

OMAN AND MUSCAT: AN EARLY MODERN HISTORY. By PATRICIA RISSO. London, Croom Helm, 1986. 258pp., glossary, maps, notes, bibliography. £19.95.

TUYUR ‘UMAN (Birds of Oman). By MICHAEL GALLAGHER and MARTIN W. WOODCOCK. London, Quartet, 1985. 308pp., coloured illustrations, maps, bibliography. £35.00.     

Social science research and experimentation in Australian criminal proceedings: prejudicial pre-trial publicity and psychological research

Using the decision of Barr J in Attorney-General (NSW) v John Fairfax Publications [1999] NSWSC 318, the authors analyse the need for external validity and relevance in social science evidence adduced in the courts. They argue in favour of the rigour employed within Barr J's judgment and contend that a constructive legacy of the decision should be a greater sensitisation on the part of researchers to the kinds of factors that can distance experimental scenarios from curial contexts to a point where generalisations from the former become strained and even spurious. A number of these considerations have the potential to be addressed to a significant extent by improved methodologies. However, the authors warn against an excess of purist fervour in demanding complete comparability of scenarios, lest the fruits of social science be denied to the courts and decision-making be adversely affected by the absence of expert insights falling short of complete replication of conditions between experiments and forensic reality.     

Litigation: a threat to obstetric practice?

Claims that the practice of obstetrics is in crisis appear regularly in the media, but evidence for the claims is scarce. This article examines a range of evidence from Australia and overseas and explores the relationship between obstetric practice and litigation. While anecdotal evidence abounds, there is no hard evidence to confirm that litigation is the threat to obstetric practice that many practitioners strongly believe it is. It is likely that such practitioners respond by practising defensive medicine but this is very difficult to measure.     

Reconfiguring Chinese Propaganda and Control Modalities: A case study of Shanghai's television system

China's television industry has experienced a number of internal changes that have shaped this system's structure into the new millennium. The Chinese Government has reconfigured the propaganda and control modalities of this industry to allow television to become the prime mover for economic reform. A case study of Shanghai's dynamic television system from 1995 to 1999 is used to understand the changes that have taken place. This analysis provides an understanding of how the Chinese Government policy changes impact on the interrelatedness of the system's components. The consequences of these changes have had dramatic and lasting effects on the way the television industry operates in China. These effects have serious implications for foreign organisations, that are attempting to find a foothold in this booming industry, and for the Chinese television viewer.     

Learning the structure of a simple rent-seeking game

This paper considers a form of the Tullock imperfectly discriminating rent-seeking game in which the contestants are uncertain about the value of a bias parameter in the probability of winning function. Beliefs about this unknown parameter are not constrained to be static; we consider two methods by which the players' prior beliefs on this parameter can be updated. First, we allow for information to emerge by considering the case in which the game is played twice, with the outcome of the first game known before the second begins. The identity of the winner of the first contest represents information which emerges endogenously that can be used to revise beliefs on the unknown bias parameter. Second, information can be produced outside of the model by an external agency; this gives rise to exogenous learning. We consider the consequences for rent-seeking in each of these two cases.     

Pressure and the division of a public budget

This paper considers the division of a public budget among competing interests. The planner determines the optimal allocation by maximizing a weighted social welfare function. These weights reflect society's attitudes to different recipient groups, and are not constrained to be constant. By exerting “pressure”, the recipients can attempt to manipulate the weights and hence influence the division of the budget. The amount of resources used on pressure, and the effects on the preference weights are calculated. An important parameter in the model is the elasticity of pressure, for which an appropriate estimate is presented from the case of competition for a share of a health services budget in Norway.     

Fission and Federalism: The Disaggregation of Canadian Party Activists

This article focuses on the Progressive Conservative (PC) partyof Canada and contrasts the orientations of four different setsof PC party workers: those who are active in the provincialarena in Nova Scotia and in Alberta, as well as those who areactive in the national arena from the same two provinces. Thedata reveal that federalism has had a disaggregative effecton Canadian political party ideology. Not only is the cleavagebetween activists in different orders of government consistentlylarge; it also generally exceeds that which exists between activistsin different provinces.     

A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.