‘RENEWING DEFRA’: EXPLORING THE EMERGENCE OF RISK‐BASED POLICYMAKING IN UK CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

Risk‐based policymaking is a form of reflexive policymaking that uses risk analysis to address both the primary objects of policy interventions and their secondary adverse consequences. As such, it has become central to debates about efficiency, control and accountability in UK government. To better understand the factors shaping its emergence, this article studies the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs' (Defra) adoption of risk‐based policymaking. In‐depth interviews with Defra staff suggest that risk‐based policymaking serves conflicting objectives and struggles to perform its ostensive functions. The article concludes, first, that risk understandings can be organizationally filtered in ways that reinforce rather than challenge entrenched policy practices. Second, that using risk‐based policymaking for audit purposes can undermine policymaking reflexivity. Third, that the value of risk ideas in reconciling competing accountability and blame‐avoidance pressures leads to risk ‘colonizing’ increasing dimensions of policymaking.     

STRESSFUL LIFE EVENTS AND DELINQUENCY ESCALATION IN EARLY ADOLESCENCE*

A recent emphasis in criminology has been on trajectories, life transitions, and turning points that affect the escalation, stabilization, or desistance of deviant behavior. The purpose of this article is to describe and examine one potential pathway of delinquency escalation in early and mid-adolescence. It draws upon Agnew's general strain theory and research on adolescent stress to describe a significant transitory stage of the life course. A key organizing principle underlying the proposed pathway is that although stressful life events are highly variable among adolescents, experiencing a persistent or increasing number over time can lead to an escalation of delinquency. Using four years of sequential data from the Family Health Study (651 adolescents aged 11–14 during year one), we estimate a hierarchical growth-curve model that emphasizes the effects of life events on delinquency. The model assumes that delinquency is distributed as an overdispersed Poisson random variable. The results indicate that experiencing a relatively high number of life events over time is related to a significant “growth” of delinquency but that this relationship is not affected by sex, family income, self-esteem, or mastery.     

PAROLEE RECIDIVISM IN CALIFORNIA: THE EFFECT OF NEIGHBORHOOD CONTEXT AND SOCIAL SERVICE AGENCY CHARACTERISTICS*

We studied a sample of reentering parolees in California in 2005–2006 to examine whether the social structural context of the census tract, as well as nearby tracts, along with the relative physical closeness of social service providers affects serious recidivism resulting in imprisonment. We found that a 1 standard deviation increase in the presence of nearby social service providers (within 2 miles) decreases the likelihood of recidivating 41 percent and that this protective effect was particularly strong for African American parolees. This protective effect was diminished by overtaxed services (as proxied by potential demand). We found that higher concentrated disadvantage and social disorder (as measured by bar and liquor store capacity) in the tract increases recidivism and that higher levels of disadvantage and disorder in nearby tracts increase recidivism. A 1 standard deviation increase in the concentrated disadvantage of the focal neighborhood and the surrounding neighborhoods increases the likelihood of recidivating by 26 percent. The findings suggest that the social context to which parolees return (both in their own neighborhood and in nearby neighborhoods), as well as the geographic accessibility of social service agencies, play important roles in their successful reintegration.     

THE SOCIAL CONTEXT OF GUIDELINES CIRCUMVENTION: THE CASE OF FEDERAL DISTRICT COURTS*

Recent scholarship on criminal punishments increasingly highlights the importance of courtroom social contexts. Combining recent data from the U.S. Sentencing Commission (FY1997–2000) with aggregate data on federal districts, the current study examines interdistrict variations in the application of downward departures from the federal sentencing guidelines. Findings indicate that substantial variation exists in the probability of both prosecutor‐initiated substantial assistance departures and judge‐initiated downward departures. This variation is accounted for, in part, by organizational court contexts, such as caseload pressures, and by environmental considerations, such as the racial composition of the district. Additional evidence suggests that individual trial penalties and race disparities are conditioned by aggregate court contexts. Drawing on interviews with federal justice personnel, this article concludes with a discussion of future directions for research on federal guidelines departures. Part of the glory of the federal system…is that you've got this one big organization, but it can be molded to different needs…
‐ An assistant U.S. attorney ‐     

THE ROLE OF CRIME IN HOUSING UNIT RACIAL/ETHNIC TRANSITION*

Previous research frequently has observed a positive cross-sectional relationship between racial/ethnic minorities and crime and generally has posited that this relationship is entirely because of the effect of minorities on neighborhood crime rates. This study posits that at least some of this relationship might be a result of the opposite effect—neighborhood crime increases the number of racial/ethnic minorities. This study employs a unique sample (the American Housing Survey neighborhood sample) focusing on housing units nested in microneighborhoods across three waves from 1985 to 1993. This format allows one to test and find that such racial/ethnic transformation occurs because of the following effects: First, White households that perceive more crime in the neighborhood or that live in microneighborhoods with more commonly perceived crime are more likely to move out of such neighborhoods. Second, Whites are significantly less likely to move into a housing unit in a microneighborhood with more commonly perceived crime. And third, African American and Latino households are more likely to move into such units.     

EXPLAINING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT AND JUVENILE DELINQUENCY*

Most criminological theories predict an inverse relationship between employment and crime, but teenagers' involvement in paid work during the school year is correlated positively with delinquency and substance use. Whether the work–delinquency association is causal or spurious has been debated for a long time. This study estimates the effect of paid work on juvenile delinquency using longitudinal data from the national Monitoring the Future project. We address issues of spuriousness by using a two-level hierarchical model to estimate the relationships of within-individual changes in juvenile delinquency and substance use to those in paid work and other explanatory variables. We also disentangle the effects of actual employment from the preferences for employment to provide insight about the likely role of time-varying selection factors tied to employment, delinquency, school engagement, and leisure activities. Whereas causal effects of employment would produce differences based on whether and how many hours respondents worked, we found significantly higher rates of crime and substance use among nonemployed youth who preferred intensive versus moderate work. Our findings suggest the relationship between high-intensity work and delinquency results from preexisting factors that lead youth to desire varying levels of employment.