Unrequited Moderation: Credible Commitments and State Repression in Egypt

In strategic accounts of democratization, credible commitments by the opposition shape whether incumbents will relinquish power. Revisiting Kalyvas’s study of Algeria and Belgium, this article introduces evidence from Egypt that shows the structural readiness of incumbents remains as consequential as commitment credibility. During the period 1990–2008 the credibility of democratic commitments by the Egyptian opposition improved along the lines identified by Kalyvas. Unlike its Algerian counterpart, the Islamic movement in Egypt was able to “silence the radicals” and, after 1998, emit a non-dissonant message of electoral participation without militia violence. This improvement in commitment credibility was not reciprocated by Egyptian elites, who enjoyed western support and a sturdy repressive apparatus. Similar factors obstructed the Algerian opposition and they indicate a more disciplined, less dissonant Islamic party would have been unlikely to effect a democratic transition. Transitions are most likely when a credibly committed opposition faces an elite ready to rotate power. The second factor helps explain the success of the Catholic party in Belgium and the failure of comparable Islamic movements in North Africa.     

Bilateral Investment Treaties,Credible Commitment,and the Rule of (International) Law: Do BITs Promote Foreign Direct Investment?

A long line of research, beginning with Macaulay's (1963) well‐known study of “Non‐Contractual Relations in Business,” suggests that the formal trappings of domestic law often have effects on private behavior that are, at best, “indirect, subtle, and ambiguous” ( Macaulay 1984 :155). Law and society scholars have spent somewhat less time exploring whether international law's effects on behavior are similarly attenuated. In this article I examine whether foreign investors take the presence of strong formal international legal protections into account when deciding where to invest. I focus on whether the presence of bilateral investment treaties, or BITs, meaningfully influences investment decisions. I present results from a statistical analysis that examines whether the formally strongest BITs—those that guarantee investors access to international arbitration to enforce investors' international legal rights—are associated with greater investment flows. I find no clear link between treaty protections and investment, a finding consistent with past law and society research but in tension with claims common in the BIT literature that the treaties should have dramatic effects on investor behavior.     

Thirty-seven degrees frigid: US-chilean relations and the spectre of polar arrivistes, 1950-59

After its 1948 proposal to internationalize Antarctica had been rejected, the United States accepted the Chilean Escudero Plan as a necessiry for avoiding further political disputes among the seven nations that had balked at the proposal's call to renounce their sovereign rights. US and Chilean officials proceeded to discuss revisions that might enhance the Escudero Plan's acceptabiliry to the other nations, all of which shared the goal of excluding the Soviet Union. Before there had been any substantial progress, the 1957-58 International Geophysical Year legitimated the USSRs presence in the far south, and already tense US-Chilean relations entered a phase of heightened apprehensiveness. This article explores the diplomatic and contextual nuances of this bilateral interaction that proved central in bringing the Antarctic Treary of 1959 to fruition.     

Examination of Illicit Drug Use Frequency Using Multiple Drug Assessment Methods in Mothers Referred to Treatment by Child Protective Services

It has long been established that illicit drug use contributes to child maltreatment. However, investigators have yet to comprehensively examine illicit drug use in mothers referred to treatment by Child Protective Services (CPS). In this study, 77 mothers who were referred to treatment by CPS for co-existing drug abuse and child neglect were administered the Timeline Follow-Back measure to assess their substance use frequency during the four months preceding treatment. Reports of the mothers’ substance use were obtained for the same time period from the mothers’ significant others and CPS caseworkers, and mothers were administered urinalysis testing. The purpose of this study was to examine the concordance of these multiple reports, and identify unique predictors of different drug use reporting patterns. The practice of using urinalysis results as a prompt during the mothers’ Timeline Follow-Back administration may have contributed to greater frequency of drug use reporting in mothers. Mothers reported progressively more drug use for more distant time periods, as compared with caseworkers. Findings also suggested mothers’ reports of drug use were influenced by CPS investigatory case status (i.e., open or closed), ethnicity, and defensive responding. Implications of these findings for clinical practice and future research are discussed.