An epidemiological assessment of problematic contacts to members of Congress

In order to assess the nature of threat assessment activity pertaining to members of Congress, 4387 cases involving threatening and other problematic contact were analyzed. The cases were studied regarding subject characteristics, articulated motives, as well as several aspects of contact behavior in relation to approach behavior. Approachers were significantly less likely to have articulated threat language prior to or during their contacts and were also less likely to have stated a policy grievance (foreign or domestic) as the source of their concern. Further, approachers were substantially more likely to have expressed help seeking requests as part of their prior and approach-related contacts and were less likely to have had racial or sexualized content within their contacts. Approachers were also significantly more likely to have had a criminal record as well as displayed symptoms suggestive of major mental illness. Subjects engaging in approach behavior were also less likely to have used an alias, were less likely to be a direct constituent of the target and were more likely to have contacted multiple congressional targets. The implications for threat assessment activity are discussed.     

Are Active Shootings Temporally Contagious? An Empirical Assessment

“Active Shootings,” which include shootings in public, confined areas such as schools, often traumatize communities and attract intense media coverage. Proposed policy responses to the phenomenon, such as concealing information as to casualty counts and even the identities of shooters, often suppose that active shootings are “contagious,” in that previous occurrences can enhance the likelihood of subsequent occurrences. This study marks the first attempt at assessment of the contagiousness of the active shooting phenomenon, and deploys a statistical model—the series hazard model—that is well-suited to the substantive issue of contagion as well as the fine-grained nature of the active shooting data. Results indicate that the hazard of observed active shootings was a function of the number of active shootings that preceded them in the previous two weeks.     

Methamphetamine and alcohol detection in vehicle-driver fatalities in South Australia: A 10-year survey (2008–2018)

Motor vehicle driver fatalities (≥18 years) from the files at Forensic Science South Australia were reviewed from January 2008 to December 2018 for cases in which either positive blood sample for methamphetamine (MA) or an illegal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) >0.05g/100 ml were found. Three hundred driver deaths were found with MA detected in 28 cases (age range 21–62 years; ave. 37.8 years; M:F 23:5). Hundred and fifteen cases with a BAC > 0.05 g/100 ml were identified (age range 18–67 years; ave 35.7 years; M:F 95:20). No change was found in numbers of MA cases, although alcohol cases showed a significant decline (p < 0.001). Drunk driving-related fatal crashes tended to occur in the evening (5 p.m. to 11 p.m.), while MA-related fatal crashes had a longer peak extending from late evening until late morning (11 p.m. to 8 a.m.). This study has demonstrated that while roadside breath testing, legislative changes, and increased monitoring have resulted in reduced levels of drunk driving, similar safety countermeasures have had negligible effects on MA use in drivers. Continued monitoring of MA use by drivers will, therefore, be necessary to assess the possible effects, or not, of new countermeasures.     

The Political Economy: Political Attitudes and Economic Behavior

It has long been recognized that voters bring their political behaviors in line with economic assessments. Recent work, however, suggests that citizens also engage in economic behaviors that align with their confidence—or lack thereof—in the political system. This alignment can happen consciously or, as we suggest, unconsciously, in the same way that positivity carries over to other behaviors on a micro-level. Using monthly time series data from 1978 to 2008, we contribute further evidence of this relationship by demonstrating that political confidence affects consumer behavior at the aggregate level over time. Our analyses employ measures more closely tied to the theoretical concepts of interest while simultaneously accounting for the complex relationships between subjective and objective economic indicators, economic behavior, political attitudes, and the media. Our results suggest that approval of the president not only increases the electorate’s willingness to spend money, but also affects the volatility of this spending. These findings suggest that the economy is influenced by politics beyond elections, and gives the “Chief Economist” another avenue by which they can affect the behavior of the electorate.     

A Proposed Scheme for Classifying Pediatric Rib Head Fractures Using Case Examples

Pediatric rib head fractures are typically described as “posterior” or “costovertebral,” terms lacking specificity. To resolve this issue, a scheme was developed to describe the location of rib head fractures observed in a pediatric forensic population. The scheme uses three anatomical landmarks, terminus (tip), tubercle, and costovertebral articular surface to divide the rib head into two subregions, costovertebral and costotransverse. Examples of five cases of infants with rib head fractures are presented using this scheme. Forty‐eight rib head fractures were observed in these infants with the following frequencies: 56% (three infants) at the terminus; 21% (three infants) in the costovertebral subregion; 21% (one infant) at the costovertebral articular facet; and 2% (one infant) in the costotransverse subregion. Due to the small number of cases assessed, statistical analyses could not be performed; however, the data demonstrate the variation in distribution of pediatric rib head fractures.     

Microscopic Saw Mark Analysis: An Empirical Approach

Microscopic saw mark analysis is a well published and generally accepted qualitative analytical method. However, little research has focused on identifying and mitigating potential sources of error associated with the method. The presented study proposes the use of classification trees and random forest classifiers as an optimal, statistically sound approach to mitigate the potential for error of variability and outcome error in microscopic saw mark analysis. The statistical model was applied to 58 experimental saw marks created with four types of saws. The saw marks were made in fresh human femurs obtained through anatomical gift and were analyzed using a Keyence digital microscope. The statistical approach weighed the variables based on discriminatory value and produced decision trees with an associated outcome error rate of 8.62–17.82%.     

The Politics of Obstruction: Republican Holds in the U.S. Senate

A defining feature of the modern US Senate is obstruction. Almost all pieces of legislation considered in the Senate are affected either directly or indirectly by obstruction. Obstruction takes many forms in the modern Senate, but one of the most prevalent, yet least studied, is the hold. Using a newly created dataset on Republican Senate holds, we cast light on this important practice. Our results suggest that a variety of factors including timing, party status, and a senator's voting record are related to both the prevalence of holds and the success of legislation subject to holds in the Senate.