Redistricting, Candidate Entry, and the Politics of Nineteenth-Century U.S. House Elections

The effects of redistricting on candidate entry patterns in contemporary House races has received growing attention in the scholarly literature, yet virtually no consideration has been given to this question in the context of historical elections. This is unfortunate as the wider variation in congressional redistricting during the nineteenth century gives us increased leverage in terms of understanding strategic candidate behavior. Utilizing a new dataset of candidate quality for nineteenth-century House races, we examine whether candidates with prior electoral experience are more likely to run in districts that are altered during the redistricting process, and provide an account of how differences in the prevalence of redistricting may affect strategic entry decisions of politicians. Our results suggest that entry decisions and electoral outcomes are affected by redistricting in this era. Moreover, our analysis provides an opportunity to use history to test contemporary theories of congressional elections in a broader context .     

An Easy and Accurate Regression Model for Multiparty Electoral Data

Katz and King have previously proposed a statistical model formultiparty election data. They argue that ordinary least-squares(OLS) regression is inappropriate when the dependent variablemeasures the share of the vote going to each party, and theyrecommend a superior technique. Regrettably, the Katz–Kingmodel requires a high level of statistical expertise and iscomputationally demanding for more than three political parties.We offer a sophisticated yet convenient alternative that involvesseemingly unrelated regression (SUR). SUR is nearly as easyto use as OLS yet performs as well as the Katz–King modelin predicting the distribution of votes and the compositionof parliament. Moreover, it scales easily to an arbitrarilylarge number of parties. The model has been incorporated intoClarify, a statistical suite that is available free on the Internet.     

The wild (white) ones: comparing frames of white and black deviance

In this case study, I establish how a racial privilege shields whites from being framed as deviant by using two racially segregated motorcycle rallies as a naturalistic experiment. I conduct a content analysis of reader posts to online newspaper stories about the biker events (which regularly include deviance) and discover the bikers, their behaviors, and the proposed community reactions are framed in nearly opposite ways. Posters attribute a ‘white innocence’ to white bikers, framing them as upper class exemplars of American Individualism who temporarily suspend their morality during the rally by drinking, exposing their nude bodies, and ignoring newly passed laws, banning loud mufflers, and requiring helmets. Posters claim these unpleasant, although non-dangerous forms of deviance can be ignored, overlooked, and even celebrated as defiant acts against authority. The white innocence can appear racially innocuous until compared to the perception of black bikers who engage in similar behaviors at their rally but are framed as underclass criminals who attend the rally to steal and murder. This reveals how a usually unseen privilege shields whites from entanglements with the criminal justice system, as posters also call for further policing of racial minorities.     

Development of a Computer‐Assisted Forensic Radiographic Identification Method Using the Lateral Cervical and Lumbar Spine

Medical examiners and coroners (ME/C) in the United States hold statutory responsibility to identify deceased individuals who fall under their jurisdiction. The computer‐assisted decedent identification (CADI) project was designed to modify software used in diagnosis and treatment of spinal injuries into a mathematically validated tool for ME/C identification of fleshed decedents. CADI software analyzes the shapes of targeted vertebral bodies imaged in an array of standard radiographs and quantifies the likelihood that any two of the radiographs contain matching vertebral bodies. Six validation tests measured the repeatability, reliability, and sensitivity of the method, and the effects of age, sex, and number of radiographs in array composition. CADI returned a 92–100% success rate in identifying the true matching pair of vertebrae within arrays of five to 30 radiographs. Further development of CADI is expected to produce a novel identification method for use in ME/C offices that is reliable, timely, and cost‐effective.     

The Effect of Fact‐Checking on Elites: A Field Experiment on U.S. State Legislators

Does external monitoring improve democratic performance? Fact‐checking has come to play an increasingly important role in political coverage in the United States, but some research suggests it may be ineffective at reducing public misperceptions about controversial issues. However, fact‐checking might instead help improve political discourse by increasing the reputational costs or risks of spreading misinformation for political elites. To evaluate this deterrent hypothesis, we conducted a field experiment on a diverse group of state legislators from nine U.S. states in the months before the November 2012 election. In the experiment, a randomly assigned subset of state legislators was sent a series of letters about the risks to their reputation and electoral security if they were caught making questionable statements. The legislators who were sent these letters were substantially less likely to receive a negative fact‐checking rating or to have their accuracy questioned publicly, suggesting that fact‐checking can reduce inaccuracy when it poses a salient threat.     

Environmental assessment of gunshot residue particles in the public domain of the United Kingdom

Only limited data currently exists on the inadvertent transfer of gunshot residue (GSR), or GSR-like particles through contact with public places. In this study, an assessment occurrence of GSR in public environments in England, UK was undertaken. Utilizing a stubbing sampling technique over 260 samples were collected from areas accessible to the public, including buses, trains, taxis, and train stations. Stub analysis was performed by Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray Analysis (SEM-EDX). The results showed no characteristic GSR particles were detected on any of the 262 samples taken. From these samples, a total of four indicative/consistent particles were identified on one train seat (2× BaAl, 2× PbSb). Although geographical location and firearm association is likely to influence GSR occurrence, the data suggests that the potential for inadvertent GSR transfer through contact with public transport and associated communal areas is insignificant. Further research assessing environmental background levels of GSR in additional geographical locations is critical in an evaluation of the potential for GSR transfer from the environment.     

Consistency amongst pairs: How consistent are child co-witnesses with one another?

Purpose

When multiple children are asked about the same event, the consistency of their reports may be used as a heuristic for credibility. Little research has considered how consistent child co-witnesses are likely to be. In this study, we explored how likely child co-witnesses were to report the same details from a mutually experienced event.

Methods

Pairs of children participated in an educational science event during which the target attempted to coax the children into breaking preestablished rules for the session (i.e., commit transgressions). Children were individually interviewed about their experience on two subsequent occasions.

Results

Co-witnesses tended to be quite inconsistent: 32%–55% of all details recalled were only mentioned by one co-witness. Various factors were associated with co-witness consistency, including delay before the interview, centrality of details recalled, and children's age and forthcomingness.

Conclusions

The findings indicate that inconsistency between co-witnesses reflects a natural memory phenomenon, and that practitioners should be cautious of using co-witness consistency as an indicator of credibility.     

Better Multimethod Design:The Promise of Integrative Multimethod Research

As this symposium suggests, we are in the middle of a boom time for multimethod research in the social sciences. Gary Goertz's essay shows how case studies can test claims about causal pathways; this suggestion should be seen as an element of a broader set of possibilities. “Integrative multimethod designs” provide a family of compelling strategies for linking qualitative and quantitative components of an overall design, while also enhancing the quality of causal inferences. Given that rigorous and credible causal inferences are essential to both scholars and policymakers, integrative multimethod research designs deserve our attention.     

Distributive Justice Antecedents of Race and Gender Disparities in First-Year College Performance

Public education is a sphere of society in which distributive justice with respect to the allocation of opportunities to learn can have profound and lasting effects on students’ educational outcomes. We frame our study in the distributive justice literature, and define just outcomes specifically from a meritocratic and strict egalitarian perspectives in order to investigate how assignment to academic tracks and the availability of opportunities to learn during high school are associated with students’ academic achievement during college. We examine the role of “just” placement into high school academic tracks, “just” access to high-quality teachers, and “just” assignment of secondary schools’ resources in high school, in relation to college freshmen’s grade point averages (GPA). We utilize longitudinal data from a unique dataset with over 15,000 students who spent their academic careers in North Carolina public secondary schools and then attended North Carolina public universities. Our results suggest that “unjust” assignment of students to certain high schools, access to high-quality teachers, and assignment to learn in specific academic tracks result in long-lasting consequences that are reflected in freshman college GPA. Importantly, findings also show that the direction and magnitude of the relationship between distributional injustice at schools and college performance is moderated by students’ own gender and race. Race and gender interact with the high schools’ institutional contexts operationalized by tracking practices, teacher quality, and by school racial and socioeconomic composition. Results show that similar settings do not affect all students in the same ways.