A coffee can, factor analysis, and prediction of antisocial behavior: the structure of criminal risk

The predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, Level of Service Inventory-Revised, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism were compared to four instruments randomly generated from the total pool of original items. None of the four original instruments better predicted post-release failure than the four randomly generated instruments. These results suggest two conclusions: (a) the instruments are only measuring criminal risk, and (b) no single instrument has captured sufficient risk assessment theory to result in better prediction than randomly derived instruments measuring criminal risk. A two-stage factor analysis was completed on 1614 cases. This analysis of the risk items indicated a 4-factor solution and all 4 factors were equal to the original instruments in predicting post-release failure. Thus, the original instruments did not improve prediction over randomly structured scales, nor did the restructuring of items improve risk assessment, suggesting substantial deficiencies in the conceptualization of risk assessment and instrumentation. We argue that developing a risk-based construct, which involves hypothesis testing and an explanation of behavior, is the optimal method to advance risk assessment within the criminal justice and mental health systems. Such an approach would provide targeted areas for clinical intervention that are salient to risk.     

From animal cruelty to serial murder: applying the graduation hypothesis

Although serial murder has been recorded for centuries, limited academic attention has been given to this important topic. Scholars have attempted to examine the causality and motivations behind the rare phenomenon of serial murder. However, scant research exists which delves into the childhood characteristics of serial murderers. Using social learning theory, some of these studies present supporting evidence for a link between childhood animal cruelty and adult aggression toward humans. Based on five case studies of serial murderers, we contribute to the existing literature by exploring the possible link between childhood cruelty toward animals and serial murder with the application of the graduation hypothesis.     

No room for Asia-Pacifists?

When this Journal decided to run a special issue on IP in theAsia-Pacific region, it was following the conventional wisdomof the profession and the marketplace. For many years, the conceptof the Asia-Pacific sold conferences and printed publications.And it was on this assumption that JIPLP based its decisionto give over its March issue for coverage of that zone. However,there comes a point in the life of     

Public attitudes towards the death penalty

Responses to a general question regarding the use of the death penalty were compared with the sentences that respondents chose in a set of scenarios describing homicide cases. The percentage of respondents who assigned the death sentence in one or more of the following scenarios was higher than those who favored the death penalty in the abstract question, but there were inconsistencies in the answers. A majority assigned the death penalty only for the most heinous offender described, and the figures were lower for other crimes, even clear cases of first degree murder. At the same time, a manipulation involving information about methods of execution did not affect answers. These results strongly suggest that the abstract questions typically used in public opinion polls do not accurately reflect the public's feelings about use of the death penalty in specific cases. More generally, research on public opinion regarding criminal justice policies should survey a variety of specific circumstances.     

Making the innocent pay

Even those of us who enter the legal profession for reasonsof personal advancement or greed can spot an injustice whenwe see it. As students and raw recruits to the profession, weshare with our clients the notion that, in any cause, one sideis ‘right’ and the other ‘wrong’. Toallow the party in the wrong to vanquish the party in the rightwould be unjust, notwithstanding the fact that the law permitsit. In time our perspective mellows: we learn to appreciatethat