With Friends Like These: Brinkmanship and Chain-Ganging in Russia's Near Abroad

Unrecognized statelets may be forming in the Eastern Donbas region of Ukraine under the aegis of Russian protection—a “frozen conflict.” Georgia's past provides a useful cautionary tale in reference to Ukraine's probable future. The very same conceptual debates that are currently underway in the West with respect to Ukraine—“credibility of great-power security guarantees versus chain-ganging”—have, over the past twenty years, generated policies that facilitated the rise of political coalitions within Georgia that prefer war with Russia to any other outcome.     

Sexual Violence Against Women Through the Lens of Environmental Criminology: Toward the Accumulation of Evidence-based Knowledge and Crime Prevention

Sexual violence against women is a serious problem worldwide. In this study, we organize and critically review previous empirical studies on sexual offenses against women through the lens of environmental criminology. For this purpose, we use the questions asked by environmental criminologists/crime analysts in the study of crime events; that is the: who, what, where, when, and how this phenomenon typically occurs. Based on the current state of the criminological research literature, we then provide a discussion on the prevention of sexual offenses against women drawing on a situational crime prevention framework. By engaging in this exercise, we argue that environmental criminology can substantially contribute to understanding and informing prevention practices in the field of sexual offenses against women.     

A Framework for the Judicious Use of the Polygraph for Youth Who Have Committed a Sexual Crime

Among professionals working with youth who commit sexual crimes, there is a clear chasm between proponents and opponents of postadjudication polygraph testing. Polygraph use for juveniles is an issue at the forefront of conversation in the state of Colorado, as the Sex Offender Management Board has evolved on positions. Drawing on extant research base, they have conducted a state-level evaluation in Colorado to inform further determinations. Using probation files of youth adjudicated of a sexual crime (N = 62), regression models were run. Youths’ significant reactions on a polygraph test were statistically significantly associated with more disclosures. Nonsignificant reactions, significant reactions, inconclusive results, and more disclosures were statistically, significantly associated with more polygraph testing. Finally, youth with nonsignificant reactions were five times more likely to successfully complete treatment, but test results and number of tests were not associated with recidivism outcomes. A framework for the judicious use of the polygraph is proposed.     

The face of the party? Leader personalization in British campaigns

The personal characteristics of political elites play an important role in British elections. While the personalization of the media’s election coverage has been the subject of much debate, we know less about the conditions under which voters receive personalized messages directly from elites during the campaign. In this paper, we use a new dataset that includes more than 3300 local communications from the 2015 general election to explore variation in the personalization of campaign messaging. We find that there is systemic variation in terms of where photographs of party leaders are included in election communications, which provides further evidence that campaign messages are deployed strategically to portray the candidate – and their party – in the best possible light.     

Mechanisms of Convergence in Domestic Counterterrorism Regulations: American Influence,Domestic Needs,and International Networks

This article seeks to determine the mechanism(s) behind the convergence of domestic counterterrorism regulations that has been noted across many Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Four hypotheses are developed and tested through regression analyses. These hypotheses examine (1) U.S. influence, operationalized though a unique U.S. footprint indicator; (2) national characteristics; (3) the extent to which states’ domestic structures match; and (4) international networks. We find little support that U.S. influence matters. The international influence that does exist seems to operate through networks promoting learning, especially following a rise in the general global threat level. National characteristics as a driver also find some support.     

Der gescheiterte Verbotsantrag gegen die NPD — Die streitbare Demokratie ist beschädigt worden

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Social media and Russian territorial irredentism: some facts and a conjecture

ABSTRACT

After Kremlin policymakers decided to incorporate the territory of Crimea into Russia, updates on public attitudes in Russian-speaking communities elsewhere in Ukraine would have been in high demand. Because social media users produce content in order to communicate ideas to their social networks, online political discourse can provide important clues about the political dispositions of communities. We map the evolution of Russian-speakers’ attitudes, expressed on social media, across the course of the conflict as Russian analysts might have observed them at the time. Results suggest that the Russian-Ukrainian interstate border only moved as far as their military could have advanced while incurring no occupation costs – Crimea, and no further.