Capability,Credibility, and Extended General Deterrence

Deterrence theory suggests that extended general deterrent threats are likely to be more effective when a potential challenger views them as capable and credible. When states sign formal defense pacts, they are making explicit extended general deterrent threats. Thus, the population of defense pacts allows us an opportunity to judge the efficacy of extended deterrent threats with different characteristics. We find that defense pacts with more capability and more credibility reduce the probability that a member state will be a target of a militarized dispute. We also find that states can affect the capability and credibility of their extended deterrent threats through alliance design. Members of defense pacts that include higher levels of peacetime military coordination are less likely to be attacked. This analysis provides support for deterrence theory in the context of extended general deterrence. It also provides evidence that should aid policymakers in designing security structures to meet their goals.     

The National Governance and Policy Context of Social Impact Bond Emergence: A Comparative Analysis of Leaders and Skeptics

Abstract

Proponents of the Social Impact Bond (SIB) model put forward a value-for-money case for SIBs based on new resources, efficiency enhancements and innovation for social service delivery, suggesting broad potential for SIB uptake in varying national contexts. SIB use has however been concentrated in Anglo-Saxon liberal market economies. This paper analyses the possibility that SIBs are proceeding given their alignment with particular governance and policy regimes, as opposed to any universal superiority from a cost-effectiveness or efficiency perspective. A comparative analysis is undertaken of the United Kingdom and the United States, leaders in SIB implementation, with France and Germany. A range of indicators representing the adoption of neoliberal governance approaches are reviewed and linked to their complementarity with the SIB model. Policy implications for SIB governance are then explored.     

A Longitudinal Analysis of the Link Between Learning Disabilities and Juvenile Delinquency in Mexican American School-Age Youth

Students with Learning Disabilities (LD) are a heterogeneous group of children who share the common characteristic of school difficulty and failure. More students in American schools are identified as Learning Disabled than any other type of disability under current federal law. The present study is a longitudinal survey that was designed to (a) test four hypothesized mediating links within the School Failure Rationale connecting juvenile delinquency (JD) to LD, and (b) apply the School Failure Rationale in the context of a low Socioeconomic Status, all-Mexican American group of youngsters (n = 75; mean CA = 12.9; IQ = 88). A path analysis was conducted to determine significance between juvenile delinquency and the mediating variables of self-esteem, peer delinquency, school dissatisfaction, and locus of control. Results indicate that all of the mediating variables except self-esteem played either a direct or indirect role in self-reported delinquency in year one or in year three of this study.     

Factors affecting the sustainability of a community water supply project in Kenya

This paper examines how three sustainability factors (water supply, regulatory policy, local management) are affecting the sustainability of a community water supply project in Kenya. Findings show that after 10 years the project is at a threshold of sustainability – it may yet fail. Changing rainfall patterns and additional withdrawals from new projects are threatening available water supply. The community is resisting compliance with water sector reforms including those intended to benefit community-managed projects. Community management deficiencies and a lack of supportive external relationships are impeding project continuity and sustainable local water management.     

Voter turnout and candidate choice: A merged theory

An alternative approach to the explanation of voting behavior is offered, suggesting that the starting point of electoral decision making is individuals' recall of their behavior in the last similar situation. Whether or not this recall is accurate is irrelevant in our model, since the voters' reasoning proceeds from their belief about their earlier behavior, whether or not it is correct. Using this approach we are able to treat voting from a unified perspective, rather than adopting the current stance of treating the turnout decision as separate from and preceding the candidate choice decision.     

Absolute and relative support among citizen-voters for local law enforcement agencies: Correlates with selected dimensions of political ideology

During the last twenty years numerous studies have been published regarding public support for local law enforcement agencies. These studies have typically focused on three determinants of support-the social status of the citizen, citizen fear or actual victimization of crime, and the nature or frequency of citizen-police contacts. This somewhat exploratory research evaluates the impact of political ideology upon citizen support for law enforcement agencies. The thrust of the investigation builds upon much more limited considerations of ideology in earlier studies. An assessment and comparison of support according to absolute/diffuse measures and relative/specific measures of citizen-voter support are presented. Political ideology is defined in the context of contemporary liberal-conservative perspectives and operationalized according to nominal (self-identification)and issue-oriented techniques.     

A logistic diffusion model of political mobilization

Some useful simplification of the theory of political mobilization is achieved by treating the ideology of a mobilizing agent as an innovation. The process of political mobilization is then treated as a process of innovation diffusion. This perspective allows the development of the necessary linkage between the micro and macro level components of the process. The theory is tested using extended time series for seven societies: the United States, Britain, Sweden, Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China.