A coffee can, factor analysis, and prediction of antisocial behavior: the structure of criminal risk

The predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, Level of Service Inventory-Revised, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism were compared to four instruments randomly generated from the total pool of original items. None of the four original instruments better predicted post-release failure than the four randomly generated instruments. These results suggest two conclusions: (a) the instruments are only measuring criminal risk, and (b) no single instrument has captured sufficient risk assessment theory to result in better prediction than randomly derived instruments measuring criminal risk. A two-stage factor analysis was completed on 1614 cases. This analysis of the risk items indicated a 4-factor solution and all 4 factors were equal to the original instruments in predicting post-release failure. Thus, the original instruments did not improve prediction over randomly structured scales, nor did the restructuring of items improve risk assessment, suggesting substantial deficiencies in the conceptualization of risk assessment and instrumentation. We argue that developing a risk-based construct, which involves hypothesis testing and an explanation of behavior, is the optimal method to advance risk assessment within the criminal justice and mental health systems. Such an approach would provide targeted areas for clinical intervention that are salient to risk.     

Assisting altruism: evaluating legally binding consent in organ donation policy

The growing need for organ and tissue transplants has led a number of states to enforce a policy that views a donor's declared intent to be an organ donor as legally binding. This allows health officials to harvest organs without the permission of the next of kin. Legally binding consent is controversial because of concerns that it may anger family members, lead to negative publicity, and discourage potential donors. We use interviews and a pooled time-series data set of cadaveric donation rates in U.S. states to evaluate the effectiveness of this policy. Our research indicates that enforcement of legally binding consent has marginally increased cadaveric donations while not significantly affecting donor registration. We also find evidence that the effect of the policy might be greater if it were more fully implemented and coordinated with efforts to improve public acceptance and awareness.     

PENDULUM--a guideline-based approach to the interpretation of STR mixtures

Several years ago, a theory to interpret mixed DNA profiles was proposed that included a consideration of peak area using the method of least squares. This method of mixture interpretation has not been widely adopted because of the complexity of the associated calculations. Most reporting officers (RO) employ an experience and judgement based approach to the interpretation of mixed DNA profiles. Here we present an approach that has formalised the thinking behind this experience and judgement. This has been written into a computer program package called PENDULUM. The program uses a least squares method to estimate the pre-amplification mixture proportion for two potential contributors. It then calculates the heterozygous balance for all of the potential sets of genotypes. A list of "possible" genotypes is generated using a set of heuristic rules. External to the programme the candidate genotypes may then be used to formulate likelihood ratios (LR) that are based on alternative casework propositions. The system does not represent a black box approach; rather it has been integrated into the method currently used by the reporting officers at the Forensic Science Service (FSS). The time saved in automating routine calculations associated with mixtures analysis is significant. In addition, the computer program assists in unifying reporting processes, thereby improving the consistency of reporting.     

A new retrieval system for a database of 3D facial images

A new retrieval system for a 3D facial image database was designed and its reliability was experimentally examined. This system has two steps, firstly to automatically adjust the orientation of all 3D facial images in a database to that of the 2D facial image of a target person, and then to identify the facial image of the target person from the adjusted 3D facial images in the database using a graph-matching method. From the experimental study [M. Yoshino, K. Imaizumi, T. Tanijiri, J.G. Clement, Automatic adjustment of facial orientation in 3D face image database, Jpn. J. Sci. Tech. Iden. 8 (2003) 41-47], it is concluded that the software developed for the first step will be applicable to the automatic adjustment of facial orientation in the 3D facial image database. In 28 out of 110 sets (25.5%), the 3D image of the target person was chosen as the best match (from a database of 132 3D facial images) according to the similarity of the facial image characteristics based on the graph matching. The 3D facial image of the target person was ranked in the top of 10 of the database in 75 out of 110 sets (68.2%). These results suggest that this system is inadequate for the identification level, but may be feasible for screening method in a small database. It will be necessary to further pursue the possibility of realization of a facial image retrieval system for a large database such as suspects' facial images in future.     

Proficiency testing (external quality assessment) of drug detection in oral fluid

Eighteen external quality assessment (proficiency testing) samples were prepared from client specimens collected with the Intercept oral fluid collection device and by spiking drug-free oral fluid. Samples were circulated in pairs at quarterly intervals to 13 UK and USA based laboratories for analysis by a panel of OraSure micro-plate Intercept enzyme immunoassay kits and hyphenated mass spectrophotometric techniques. During the survey, there was a single case of non-specificity in a false report for methadone. The major errors were of lack of sensitivity relative to the concentration thresholds specified for the immunoassays. The sensitivity for overall "present"/"not found" reports calculated as true positives/(true positives+false negatives) were for the amphetamine specific assay 50%, methyl-amphetamines 93%, barbiturates 64%, cannabinoids 73%, cocaine and metabolites 100%, benzodiazepines 69%, methadone 95%, opiates 79% (opiates excluding oxycodone 93%), phencyclidine 93% and human gamma-globulin 97%. A small number of the sensitivity errors were attributable to errors in chromatographic confirmation techniques.     

Mobile phase influence on electrospray ionization for the analysis of smokeless powders by gradient reversed phase high-performance liquid chromatography-ESIMS

The solution parameters associated with gradient elution reversed phase high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) were characterized by evaluating the electrospray ionization mass spectrometry (ESIMS) response of selected smokeless powder additives. Using direct liquid infusion, the positive ion ESIMS responses were determined for three general classes of powder constituents: dialkylphthalate acid esters, N,N'-dialkyl-N,N'-diphenyl urea based stabilizers and nitroso-, nitro-, and dinitro- derivatives of diphenylamine. The relative ESIMS intensities of the powder components were investigated as a function of three solution parameters: ammonium acetate concentration, pH, and percent methanol. The effect of the ammonium acetate concentration demonstrates that the electrolyte is required for efficient ionization and the ESIMS intensity was optimal at a concentration of 2mM for the selected compounds, except 2,4'-dinitrodiphenylamine. The aqueous solution pH, corresponding to the available protons in solution, did not have a significant effect on the ESIMS intensity of the analytes. The percent methanol was evaluated with both decreasing and constant electrolyte concentrations to demonstrate the effects of droplet stability and ion transfer into the gas phase. These findings were applied to the analysis of the selected smokeless powder additives using HPLC-ESIMS to illustrate increased sensitivity for the protonated molecules.