Fiscal Exchange and Tax Compliance: Evidence From a Field Experiment

Behavioral interventions appealing to taxpayers’ reciprocity often leave tax compliance unaffected. We provide evidence that a “fiscal exchange nudge” increased tax compliance in a setting where one might not expect it: crisis-ridden Argentina. In a randomized controlled trial with over 20,000 taxpayers, a tax bill visually celebrating realized public works benefiting children increased payment rates of tax delinquents by about 20 percent, or almost 40 percent when the bills were delivered in person. Without the appeal, the new bill design generated significantly fewer payments. Changes in the design of the tax bill also increased arrears cancellation. We estimate the ratio of marginal revenues to costs for the fiscal exchange bill to be 18. The factors we associate with the unexpectedly positive impacts are consistent with strengthening an affective response. We find persistent effects of the experiment two years later. The results suggest that communities have more scope to increase tax revenues through non-threatening interventions.     

Locating,Identifying, and Comparing Sub‐visible Paint Particles

Forensic paint comparisons are generally conducted on samples which, while small relative to their source, are still visible to the unaided eye and are thus located and analyzed without great difficulty. Here we demonstrate that a more detailed examination of candidate transfer surfaces can capture materials (questioned samples), even when such traces are invisible to the unaided eye. While certain analytical details (such as layer sequence or a pure FTIR spectrum) may not be obtainable from such traces due to their size and condition, a detailed analysis of the sample characteristics that are analytically accessible may still provide sufficient analytical data to arrive at a probative result. Here we present the application of this approach to a suspected paint transfer case, involving particles of paint as small as 40 μm in size. Using a combination of stereomicroscopy, polarized light microscopy, infrared microspectroscopy, Raman microspectroscopy, and SEM/EDS, all performed on a single, subsample of the original minute particle, it was possible to demonstrate evidence of a two‐way transfer between the suspected sources. Furthermore, the transferred paint particle in one direction could be classified as automotive in nature based on a combination of polymer composition, microscopic texture, and pigment package (which included three specifically identified pigments). This work demonstrates (i) the potential for improving detection limits when searching for a questioned sample, (ii) the potential benefits of higher resolution analyses on samples that would be traditionally labeled as “sample‐size limited,” and (iii) the value of case‐specific interpretation over standardized, one‐size fits all report templates.     

Homicidal Ideation and Individuals on the Autism Spectrum

Interest in the relationship between autism and violence has increased in recent years; however, no link has clearly been established between them. Researchers remain curious if autistic people with certain traits (e.g., a history of trauma) are at greater risk of violence than those individuals with autism alone. In this article, we detail two individuals with homicidal ideation (HI) admitted to inpatient psychiatric units who were found to have a diagnosis of autism without language impairment. These cases illustrate the need for mental health providers to consider autism in their differential diagnosis when evaluating an individual with HI. Broadly, we consider how an autistic individual could be susceptible to developing HI and explore treatments specific to autistic individuals that may be helpful in such cases.     

Public research and the innovation performance of new technology based firms

Assessing the role of publicly funded scientific research in entrepreneurial ecosystems is of great interest for science and entrepreneurship policy. Knowledge from academic research flows into the private sector through publications, patents, and researcher mobility as well as through direct interactions between founders and researchers at public research institutions (PRIs). New technology-based firms (NTBFs) are generally praised for high innovativeness despite their resource constraints and liability of newness. This study therefore investigates the impact of direct interactions with PRIs on NTBFs’ innovation success. In a large sample of NTBFs in Germany, we find that those firms engaging in such knowledge interactions are more likely to introduce new products and services to the market. The strength of this association, however, depends on interaction persistency, internal R&D and the founders’ academic backgrounds. Non-academic start-ups benefit more from continuous informal interactions if they pursue own R&D, which suggests that absorptive capacity matters. In academic start-ups, higher intensities of both formal and informal interactions are associated with greater innovation likelihood. Moreover, continuous informal interactions complement formal ones in the absence of own R&D activity.

     

Inherent Fluorescence Detection of Latent Fingermarks by Homemade Shortwave Ultraviolet Laser

Detection of latent fingermarks on various substrates is critical in crime investigations. Conventional chemical methods using reagents could contaminate or even destruct biological information of samples. Here, an optical method and successful case application of detecting latent fingermarks through long‐wave ultraviolet (UV) fluorescence (300–400 nm) by shortwave UV laser excitation is reported. Experimental results indicate that the recovery rate of the latent fingermarks on various paper items is in the range of 70–80% without chemical treatments. Moreover, the optical method allows for the preservation of samples for further examination, such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. The technique has also been successfully applied to a criminal case in identifying the suspect, which, to the best of our knowledge, has never been reported in real crime investigations. Therefore, such a method as UV‐excited UV fluorescence in detecting latent fingermarks may be better for examination in cases where biological information of samples is needed for consequent testing.     

Diagnosing Crime and Diagnosing Disease: Bias Reduction Strategies in the Forensic and Clinical Sciences

Cognitive effort is an essential part of both forensic and clinical decision‐making. Errors occur in both fields because the cognitive process is complex and prone to bias. We performed a selective review of full‐text English language literature on cognitive bias leading to diagnostic and forensic errors. Earlier work (1970–2000) concentrated on classifying and raising bias awareness. Recently (2000–2016), the emphasis has shifted toward strategies for “debiasing.” While the forensic sciences have focused on the control of misleading contextual cues, clinical debiasing efforts have relied on checklists and hypothetical scenarios. No single generally applicable and effective bias reduction strategy has emerged so far. Generalized attempts at bias elimination have not been particularly successful. It is time to shift focus to the study of errors within specific domains, and how to best communicate uncertainty in order to improve decision making on the part of both the expert and the trier‐of‐fact.     

The Burglary Boost: A Note on Detecting Contagion Using the Knox Test

Objectives

A large body of literature in quantitative criminology finds that the spatio-temporal clustering of burglary is greater than one would expect from chance alone. This suggests that such crimes may exhibit a “boost” effect, wherein each burglary increases the risk to nearby locations for a short period. In this study, we demonstrate that standard tests for spatio-temporal dependence have difficulty distinguishing between clustering caused by contagion and that caused by changing relative risks. Therefore, any estimates of the boost effect drawn from these tests alone will be upwardly biased.

Methods

We construct an agent-based model to generate simulated burglary data, and explore whether the Knox test can reliably distinguish between contagion (one burglary increases the likelihood of another burglary nearby) and changes in risk (one area gets safer while another gets more dangerous). Incorporating insights from this exercise, we analyze a decade of data on burglary events from Washington, DC.

Results

We find that (1) absent contagion, exogenous changes in relative risk can be sufficient to produce statistically significant Knox ratios, (2) if risk is changing over time, estimated Knox ratios are sensitive to one’s choice of time window, and (3) Knox ratios estimated from Washington, DC burglary data are sensitive to one’s choice of time window, suggesting that long-run changes in relative risk are, in part, driving empirical estimates of burglary’s boost effect.

Conclusions

Researchers testing for contagion in empirical time series should take precautions to distinguish true contagion from exogenous changes in relative risks. Adjusting the time window of analysis is a useful robustness check, and future studies should be supplemented with new approaches like agent-based modeling or spatial econometric methods.