A Cautionary Tale: Council Amalgamation in Tasmania and the Deloitte Access Economics Report

Contemporary Australian public policy has come to rely increasingly on technical reports produced by commercial consultants in contrast to the traditional approach, which employed disinterested public servants to generate the specialist information required to inform decision makers. This approach is fraught with problems, not least the fact that ‘hired guns’ have strong incentives to create the ‘answers’ sought by their employers. By way of a ‘cautionary tale’, this paper examines the empirical evidence adduced in favour of radical amalgamation of Tasmanian local authorities in Local Government Structural Reform in Tasmania, produced by Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) (2011), and commissioned by the Property Council of Tasmania. In particular, the paper provides a critical analysis of the econometric modelling undertaken in the DAE (2011) Report. We find that if the DAE model is re‐estimated – employing alternative functional forms – then the empirical evidence in support of Tasmania council merges evaporates.     

The winning of the 1995 French presidential election

The article analyses the processes which conditioned the outcome of the 1995 presidential election in France. By a fresh evaluation of four frequently made propositions, namely (1) the presidential contest is above party politics, (2) presidential candidacy is pre‐eminently about individual leadership, (3) the confrontation is between the incumbent (or his surrogates) and one or more ‘challengers’, and (4) this confrontation reinforces political polarisation, the unique configuration of the current French polity is delineated. In conclusion, the interaction between social and political fractures is shown to have been crucial to Chirac's victory.     

The Erosion of Party Politics in Britain

This article looks at the erosion of democratic practice enacted by "New" Labour in Britain under the leadership of Tony Blair. Building on the internal reforms of the 1980s, the process of Labour Party "modernization" has created an exclusive, top-down managerial style of leadership. This type of party leadership and management has far-reaching implications for British politics more generally, not least the role of political parties. The current crisis of the Conservatives and the destruction of representative democracy within the Labour Party pose serious questions regarding the medium-term future of parties as voluntary membership organizations. These changes are placed in the context of a possible longer-term transformation of British political structures in order to exchange the long-established administration of the Conservative Party for a new type of governmental machinery. The aim is not a new "traditional" party of government, but a partyless formation built around a dominant central presidential figure and his office—a change which necessitates abolishing the Labour Party and social democracy as they currently exist. It is argued that this anticipated remedy to a protracted crisis of the British state accords closely to the requirements of neoliberal economic management, while drawing upon developments in the wider global environment. However, if this is to succeed, Blair's "modernizing" tendency needs to be able to articulate a coherent ideology that strikes a popular chord. Thus far, Blair's managerial approach to politics may have scored a few points against the old party ideologies, but it has also undermined attempts to promote an alternative ideology—even one of a "partyless" nature.     

Presidential Party,Incumbency, and the Effects of Economic Fluctuations on House Elections, 1916–1996

There is little professional consensusregarding the effect of economic conditionson House Elections. We argue that recentwork still uses the paradigm of Party toorganize their data and tests. Given thatrecent developments in the theory ofcongress emphasize the paradigm ofIncumbency, we investigate the empiricalrelevance of that competing paradigm. Weshow that (1) Incumbency matters in a purePresidential Party Model of HouseElections, (2) Presidential Party mattersin a pure Incumbency Model, (3) Once bothParty and Incumbency are accounted for,economic conditions exert a highlysignificant and temporally stable influenceon House elections, (4) Return Rates aremore affected by economic fluctuations thanare Vote Shares, and (5) Not allPresidential Party incumbents face the samedegree of electoral accountability foreconomic fluctuations.     

A Bayesian Multilevel Modeling Approach to Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data

Joseph Bafumi Department of Government, Dartmouth College,6108 Silsby HallHanover, NH 03755 e-mail: joseph.bafumi{at}dartmouth.edu Luke Keele Department of Political Science, Ohio State University,2137 Derby Hall, 154 N Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210 e-mail: keele.4{at}polisci.osu.edu David Park Department of Political Science, George Washington University,1922 F Street, N.W. 414C, Washington, DC 20052 e-mail: dkp{at}gwu.edu e-mail: bshor{at}uchicago.edu (corresponding author) The analysis of time-series cross-sectional (TSCS) data hasbecome increasingly popular in political science. Meanwhile,political scientists are also becoming more interested in theuse of multilevel models (MLM). However, little work existsto understand the benefits of multilevel modeling when appliedto TSCS data. We employ Monte Carlo simulations to benchmarkthe performance of a Bayesian multilevel model for TSCS data.We find that the MLM performs as well or better than other commonestimators for such data. Most importantly, the MLM is moregeneral and offers researchers additional advantages. Authors' note: A previous version of this article was presentedat the 2005 Midwest Political Science Meeting. We would liketo thank the following for comments and advice in writing thispaper: Andrew Gelman, Nathaniel Beck, Greg Wawro, Sam Cooke,John Londregan, David Brandt. Any errors are our own.     

Descent of the nation: Kinship and citizenship in Lebanon

The mechanisms which underpin kinship are mobilized by states to organize the citizenry for state‐building, often transporting patriarchy and (reinscribing it in public arenas. While the gendering and aging of citizenship is predictable in the deployment of patriarchal kin institutions for state‐building, the focus of this paper is less on these outcomes (well theorized elsewhere) and more on a mechanism undertheorized in feminist analyses of patriarchy and state dynamics—patrilineality. Patrilineality is commonly subsumed in feminist analyses of patriarchy, particularly in the study of the Middle East. Understood as kinship descent through the father's lineage, patrilineality is often conflated with patriarchy in societies in which both are present, resulting in the essentialization of patriarchy and a glossing of critical cultural differences in the gendering and aging of citizenship. While kinship in Lebanon has been fluid and Lebanese have mobilized both patrilineal and matrilineal principles of kinship as deemed necessary, the codification of rules of patrilineal descent in citizenship laws by the state has narrowed the spaces for negotiation for women and men, children and adults. By disaggregating patrilineality from patriarchy, this paper exposes a key substructure of patriarchy, significant to the gendering and aging of citizenship in Lebanon.