CRIMINAL PROPENSITIES,DISCRETE GROUPS OF OFFENDERS,AND PERSISTENCE IN CRIME*

Criminal propensity theorists argue that the causes of variation in offending behavior can be traced to variation in one or more causal traits. Other theorists contend that there is actually more than one type of offender and that more than one causal mechanism operates to explain offending behavior. In this article, some of the implications of these two positions are considered. Then, their congruence with recidivism data from a cohort of post-age-16 North Carolina institutional releasees (N = 848) is assessed, The analysis focuses specifically on whether the correlates of offending persistence are similar across two categories of individuals: those who experienced their first adjudication at an early age and those who were first adjudicated at a later age. In support of both positions, some similarities and some differences in the correlates of persistence were discovered. The differences, however, were only evident when the threshold for late first adjudication was set to age 12. When this threshold was raised to higher ages, the differences disappeared.     

Predicting Outcomes with Juvenile Court Case Histories

This report supplements a prior article in this journal (Rogers and Williams, 1994). Utilizing Ted Palmer's 1991 formulation, we identified a set of indicators relevant to juvenile court decision-making and to policy formulation. Here, through a more stringent statistical technique, we provide additional evidence of the potential that juvenile court histories possess for both theory and practice. We explore case materials gained and maintained by juvenile probation officers as a way of generating outcome predictors for whether youth receive probation or institutionalization. Using discriminant function analysis, we obtain relatively good prediction. Delinquency history and social psychological variables are found to enhance prediction of case outcomes. Contrary to some scholars, we believe the juvenile court is here to stay. Thus, the fundamental issue becomes one of making it a more efficient, effective instrument for reintegrating youths it must serve. As this institution approaches its centennial in 1999, we believe the court must become a focal point of research. This article is intended to further that task. After identifying the three strongest predictive variables (offense after first hearing, alienation, and denial of blame), we employ our seven key indicators as a guide for illustrating their everyday application for juvenile probation officers working with their youthful clientele.     

A Primer for Prospective “Secondary and Premises” Asbestos Defendants

Given the current state of the asbestos litigation, the potential for tort reform, and new information regarding past asbestos claim history, many companies are for the first time assessing their potential asbestos liability. To reduce the impacts of asbestos claims, these companies are evaluating decisions regarding past insurance settlements for environmental liabilities and carve-outs for asbestos liabilities, pursuing insurance coverage for past and future asbestos claims, prioritizing asbestos litigation and settlement strategies, and strengthening asbestos-related disclosures. Model estimates of future impacts of asbestos liabilities can be developed by assessing past claimant information, identifying past asbestos use, population and occupations exposed (worker and bystander), and accounting for future claim runoff. These model estimates can incorporate probability distributions to account for ranges in uncertainty based on published references as well as uncertainties defined by site- or claimant-specific data. By accounting for uncertainty and updating the model as new information becomes available, companies can proactively assess the past, present, and future impacts of asbestos on the company.     

Gender convergence in crime: Evidence from Canadian adult offense charge data

This study provided some new empirical evidence relating to the hypothesis that there was convergence between certain male and female offenses over time. Using time-series data for adults charged with offenses in Canada over the period 1983 to 2000, several formal statistical tests of this convergence hypothesis were conducted. This study allowed for the particular characteristics of the data, such as various types of structural breaks and changes over time in the process that generated the data. A number of new tests that had not previously been applied to this problem were employed, and the results that were obtained provided the first strong evidence in favor of gender-convergence for a range of offenses in Canada.     

Mexico's Southern Flank: The “Third” U.S. Border

Mexico's crime-ridden southern frontier has become a veritable third U.S. border, as a constant flow of Central Americans and others cross into Mexico, often en route to the United States. As the number of unlawful migrants surges, their characteristics are changing: recent apprehensions include nationals of Caribbean, Middle Eastern, and Asian nations, and foreigners linked to terrorism are using Mexico as a thoroughfare to the United States. Mexico's immigration department is hindered by a number of factors in stanching this flow, and Mexican officials have only begun to publicly recognize the severity of the problem. Washington, too, must wake up to the security threat posed by Mexico's soft underbelly.