Age structure and crime rates: The conflicting evidence

Because arrest rates are especially high for teenagers and young adults, criminologists have long contended that age structure changes affect crime trends. In recent years, however, this belief has been drawn into question because crime has not declined even though high-crime age groups have shrunk. We argue that the age/crime relationship is probably exaggerated because the high arrest rates for younger persons are due partly to their lesser ability to escape arrest, younger persons commit more group crime, and the age structure of victims should be taken into account. We then review 90 studies that regress crime rates on age structure; only a small minority consistently finds significant relationships. Because of methodological problems in this research, one cannot conclude that the age/crime relationship does not exist, but the weight of evidence shows that forecasts based on demographic trends are not likely to be helpful.     

Preventive War and Permissive Normative Order

Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, U.S. president George W. Bush articulated a new national security strategy based on striking terrorist organizations and the states that harbor them before they could endanger the United States. Though expressed in the language of preemption, the Bush strategy embodied a far more problematic doctrine of preventive warfare. Whereas the grounds for preemption lie in evidence of a credible, imminent threat, the basis for prevention rests on the suspicion of an incipient, contingent threat. We argue that an American national security strategy that embraces preventive war will set an inauspicious precedent, undermining normative restraints on when and how states may use military force.     

Stability of the Federal System in Nigeria: Elite Attitudes at the Constituent Assembly Toward the Creation of New States

The Constituent Assembly which approved the constitution forNigeria's Second Republic (1979–1983) decided that nonew states should be created at that time and adopted proceduresmaking state creation in the future virtually impossible. TheAssembly's action implied that elite consensus had been achievedon the existing territorial configuration of the federation.Yet events during the Second Republic seemed to belie such aninterpretation. To resolve the contradiction a content analysisof the Constituent Assembly debates was undertaken. It showedwidespread dissatisfaction with the existing nineteen-statestructure. The study concludes that the Constituent Assembly'sdecisions on state creation did not reflect an elite consensus.Instead, the period of relative stability in federal territorialconfiguration, which elsewhere seems to follow early years ofinstability, had not yet been reached in Nigeria.     

Advocacy in Constitutional Choice: The Cramer Treason Case, 1942–1945

How did advocacy at each level of the federal judiciary help shape the leading decision in American law of treason? This article, adapted from a forthcoming biography of Judge Harold R. Medina, is a case study based on Justice Department archives and the personal papers of Medina, Charles Fahy, and seven Supreme Court Justices. It analyzes the whole case, from the lawyers’standpoint, to illuminate the role of counsel in transforming a minor wartime incident into the first treason case decided on the merits by the Supreme Court and the tribunal's only decision during World War II to limit constitutional war powers. Accenting litigation strategy and the use of history in constitutional interpretation, it is a story also of the struggle by counsel on both sides of the case to uphold high professional standards amid the passions of total war.     

Analyzing factors influencing readmission to a battered women's shelter

Factors that distinguished first admission and readmission to an emergency woman's shelter were examined using discriminant function analysis. Records from 563 women who were residents were analyzed. Results suggest that source of income, number and developmental stage of children, and prior history of physical assault are precursors of readmissions. This study was discussed in terms of improving follow-up services to former residents of emergency shelters.