Implications of the ‘bread and peace’ model for the 2008 US presidential election

Presidential election outcomes are well explained by just two objectively measured fundamental determinants: (1) weighted-average growth of per capita real personal disposable income over the term, and (2) cumulative US military fatalities owing to unprovoked, hostile deployments of American armed forces in foreign conflicts. The US economy weakened at the beginning of 2008 and average per capita real income growth probably will be only around 0.75% at Election Day. Moreover cumulative US military fatalities in Iraq will reach 4,300 or more. Given those fundamental conditions, the Bread and Peace model predicts a Republican two-party vote share centered on 48.2%.     

Assessing child maltreatment risk in the recently divorced parent-child relationship

Reports of single-parent-child relationships characterized by child maltreatment have increased in recent years. The present paper discusses Belsky's child maltreatment/parenting model concerning parenting and the etiology of this problem. The model may serve as a source of conceptual unification of this risk in single-parent homes. It is proposed that the model also may have heuristic value in identifying highest risk single-parent families who warrant intervention.