Morton's Fork: “Democracy” Versus Neopatrimonialism in Developing Countries

It is argued that conditions for social justice in developing countries are deficient under both state capitalism (“democracy”) and neopatrimonialism. Development assistance is similarly constrained, but it also has shortcomings in relation to “democracy” promotion. Political economy analyses can provide authentic insights into how poor people negotiate for public goods, but such interactions seem unlikely to yield sustainable social justice for most citizens. The assessment calls for a reconfiguration of power relations and a more egalitarian distribution of public goods within and between countries, which is what most people are predisposed to want and are entitled to expect and enjoy.     

The Sources of Pakistani Attitudes toward Religiously Motivated Terrorism

This study is interested in understanding public opinion in Pakistan toward terror attacks. Specifically, this study explores (1) the general picture of attitudes in Pakistan toward terrorism and (2) which individuals are most likely to support terrorism in Pakistan. The study aims to give insights into how pervasive a support base exists for terrorism as a tactic in Pakistan and it seeks to isolate the individual-level traits that account for the variation we see among Pakistani Muslims regarding their level of acceptance of terrorism against Pakistani and Indian targets. The study finds that a large majority of Pakistanis oppose terrorism but terrorism directed at Indian targets is more tolerated than terrorism against Pakistani targets. The study also finds that those who are most supportive of Talibanization in Pakistan are the most supportive of terrorism.     

Screening procedures in the United Kingdom for positions of trust with children

Abstract

Child services organisations need policies that minimise the risk of sexual abuse of the children in their care. In particular, managers (and the public) are justifiably concerned when abuse is perpetrated by individuals who should not have been working with children in the first place. Unfortunately, there has been relatively little work on determining unacceptable risk for sexually abusive behaviour in child service organisations. The purpose of this paper is to describe the contexts in which screening procedures are appropriate, review the academic literature on screening procedures and present the results of a pilot survey of current screening practices in the United Kingdom. We comment on the effectiveness of screening measures available for use by organisations and provide suggestions for improvement. Specifically, we recommend that screening procedures consider risk factors associated with the onset and persistence of child sexual abuse perpetration.     

Mandatory life sentences for serious sex offenders in England and Wales: tough,but intelligent too?

Abstract

This paper reviews the changes in risk assessment procedures for sexual offenders over the last 15 years from the viewpoint of two active participants in that change. Best practices with this target group have evolved at a dizzying pace, leaving many practitioners and programme managers uncertain about which tests or procedures they should use and, frankly, wondering why things keep changing. We view this ongoing evolution as very positive. Compared to the early 1990s, evaluators now have better knowledge of the static and dynamic factors associated with sexual recidivism, and a number of empirically validated risk assessment tools. We describe the various risk assessment procedures we have introduced (e.g. STATIC-99, SONAR, STABLE-2007/ACUTE-2007), the reasons why practices have changed and the reasons why practices will continue to change.     

Is the Impact of Alcohol Consumption on Violence Relative to the Level of Consumption?

Two ideas concerning the link between bullying in school and violence on the streets are investigated. (1) Bullying and victimization in school is a product of the school situation and people's inability to choose their levels of exposure to others. According to this hypothesis, bullying is largely a phenomenon that is isolated to the school context. (II) Bullying behaviour in school and inflicting damage to others outside school is a reflection of a more general aggressive behaviour pattern and, hence, bullying in school and violence on the streets will, to a great extent, involve the same individuals. The literature offers suggestions that either could be the case. Participants were 2915 14-year-olds in a medium-sized county in Sweden who responded to a self-report questionnaire.Theresults showed that bullying others in school was strongly linked to violent behaviour and weapon-carrying on the streets, both among boys and girls. It was also found that bullying others in school was related to being violently victimized on the streets. The findings remained the same when statistically controlling for loitering and nights spent away from home, which were both related to bullying behaviour. It is concluded that bullying behaviour in school is in many cases a part of a more general violent and aggressive behaviour pattern and that preventive efforts targeting individuals with bullying behaviour in school could, according to the present study, decrease violence among adolescents out in the community as well.     

Population Pressure,Horizontal Inequality and Political Violence: A Disaggregated Study of Indonesian Provinces, 1990–2003

All parts of a country are rarely equally affected by political violence. Yet statistical studies largely fail to address sub-national conflict dynamics. We address this gap studying variations in ‘routine’ and ‘episodic’ violence between Indonesian provinces from 1990 to 2003. Within a grievance framework, the article focuses on the violence potential of resource scarcity and population pressure, as well as inter-group dynamics related to polarisation and horizontal inequality. Demographic pressure and inequality seem to have little effect in isolation. However, in provinces where population growth is high, greater levels of inequality between religious groups appear to increase the violence risk.     

The Value of Diplomatic History: A Case Study in the Historical Thought of Herbert Butterfield

This article, substantially based on archival sources, aims to rehabilitate diplomatic history as a mode of enquiry and education using the insights and reflections of Sir Herbert Butterfield, one of the leading historians of the twentieth century. Integrated with developments in theory, methodology and new areas of inquiry over the past generation, his thoughts, it will be argued, can inform the tenets of a revitalized diplomatic history—one that fulfills the promise of its founding scholars and one that reclaims its place at the forefront of historical scholarship: a corrective to some of our present academic priorities.     

How political parties’ issue ownerships reduce to spatial proximity

Abstract

Scholarly interest in issue ownership is growing rapidly. Although originally introduced as a competence-oriented, alternative concept to the predominantly spatial understanding of voting and party behaviour, parties’ policy positions are an inescapable aspect of issue ownership. Using data for multiple issues in several countries over time, this article shows that the party with issue ownership sides with the median voter. A party earns issue ownership by taking up a position as close to as many voters as possible. Moreover, the analysis indicates that a party’s issue emphasis only matters to issue ownership insofar as it is used as a device to make its position credible to voters. Hence, to have issue ownership is to have a credible position, and in that sense, issue ownership has less added theoretical value to spatial proximity than previous literature suggests.     

Party Elites' Perceptions of Voters and Public Opinion

Given the vast amounts of research on party competition, party strategy, political communication and electoral campaigning, surprisingly little attention has been devoted to the study of national party elites' perceptions of voters and public opinion. This article argues that the mindset of leading party officials, and more specifically their perceptions of voter and public opinion rationality, driving forces and knowledge, is a much‐neglected explanation for why parties adopt the electoral strategies they do. Analysed here are unique internal party documents from two Swedish parties during the period 1964 to 1991: the Social Democratic Party and the Conservative Party. A simple analytic framework is proposed for the study of party elite perceptions of voters and public opinion. In contrast to the overwhelmingly pessimistic view of voter rationality that still prevails in contemporary research, the findings presented in this article suggest that national party elites in general have had a surprisingly positive view of voters and, in particular, public opinion. Perceptions of voters and public opinion were largely unaffected by the parties' electoral fortunes, and did not become gloomier over time.     

Which democracies prosper? Electoral rules, form of government and economic growth

Electoral rules and form of government have important economic effects, for example on taxation and public spending. However, there are no robust results in the literature when it comes to their effect on economic growth. This paper investigates whether electoral rules and form of government affects economic growth by applying panel data techniques on a very extensive dataset. There is no robust effect of presidentialism or parliamentarism on growth. However, there is very robust evidence for a positive, and quite substantial, effect of Proportional Representation (PR) electoral rules on economic growth. This is partly due to PR systems’ propensity to generate broad-interest policies, like universal education spending, property rights protection and free-trade, rather than special interest economic policies. Also semi-proportional systems seem to enhance growth relative to plural-majoritarian systems.