The Coefficient of Party Influence

In a 2000 article in American Journal of Political Science,James Snyder and Tim Groseclose develop and apply an innovativemethod for detecting and estimating the frequency and magnitudeof party influence in congressional roll call voting. This paperpresents a framework for assessing the coefficient that theauthors interpret as "party influence." The analysis revealsthat, and shows why, the coefficient manifests two troublesomecharacteristics. The coefficient cannot discriminate betweendisparate types of party influence because the mapping betweentypes of partison influence and signs of the coefficient isnot one-to-one. Similarly, the coefficient has a responsivenessproblem because a marginal increase in one party's influencecan cause the estimate of the coefficient to increase, decrease,or remain constant. Because the literature on parties in Congressemphasizes majority-party strength, the inability of the coefficientto isolate party-specific effects is a serious drawback in theongoing hunt for genuine party discipline.     

Seasonality in suicide: a study of farming suicides in England and Wales

Seasonality in suicide rates has long been reported. Spring peaks in suicide deaths have been positively correlated with the proportion of the workforce engaged in agriculture. Some studies have indicated that suicides using violent methods are more likely to show seasonality. Recent research has suggested that seasonal patterns have diminished. This study examined deaths in male farmers, an occupational group which might be expected to be more vulnerable to seasonal influences because of the nature of their work and the relatively high proportion of farmers using violent methods for suicide. Data on suicides between 1982 and 1999 by males in England and Wales aged 15 years and over were provided by the Office for National Statistics. Seasonal patterns of suicide in farmers and nonfarmers were examined by nonparametric tests and harmonic analysis. No significant seasonal variation was found for farmers. For nonfarmers, although a chi-square test showed significant variation in monthly distribution, this was not found when a harmonic analysis was applied. There was no significant difference in the variation of violent suicides throughout the year. This study reinforces recent findings that seasonal variation in suicide appears to be diminishing, even in an occupational group where this might be expected.     

Book reviews

Sibyl Crowe and Edward Corp, Our Ablest Public Servant, Sir Eyre Crowe GCB, GCMG, KCB, KCMG, 1864-1925 (Braunton Devon: Merlin Books, 1993) £17.95. ISBN 0 86303 607-4.

Richard J. Aldrich, The Key to the South: Britain, the United States, and Thailand during the Approach of the Pacific War, 1929-42 (Kuala Lumpur: Oxford University Press, 1993).

John Saville, The Politics of Continuity: British Foreign Policy and the Labour Government, 1945-46 (London and New York: Verso, 1993). ISBN 0 86091 456 9.

John Kent, British Imperial Strategy and the Origins of the Cold War, 1944-49 (Leicester, London and New York: Leicester University Press, 1993). ISBN 0 7185 1330 4.

Frederick W. Marks III, Power and Peace: The Diplomacy of John Foster Dulles (Westport, CT & London: Praeger, 1993) £45. ISBN 0 275 94497 2.

Charles Grant, Delors: Inside the House that Jacques Built (London: Nicholas Brealey, 1994) pp.305. £12.99. ISBN 1 85788 039 0.     

Expectancy theory in developing nations: Motivating Botswana public servants

The degree to which individuals are motivated to apply themselves depends in part on how far they expect to be able to achieve given goals. This study, based on interviews of local government administrators in Botswana, not only stresses the importance of expectancy in motivation but reports the importance of altruistic goals among these administrators. Among those interviewed there was a strong desire to advance their own careers, both by developing themselves in the job they currently hold, and by advancing through the organizational hierarchy. Employees, however, were also anxious to accomplish concrete objectives in their current jobs and thus to contribute to the development of the nation. Here unless officials have the expectancy of being able to achieve these goals their motivation is affected. Thus emphasis is placed in this article on the need to supplement traditional attention to pay and promotion as devices to improve motivation with a concern to remove road blocks to development. The enquiry thus strengthens the case for the performance improvement programme of the United Nations.