The variable choice set logit model applied to the 2004 Canadian election

Formal work on the electoral model often suggests that parties should locate at the electoral mean. Recent research has found no evidence of such convergence. In order to explain non-convergence, the stochastic electoral model is extended by including a competence and sociodemographic valance in a country where regional and national parties compete in the election. That is, the model allows voters to face different sets of parties in different regions. We introduce the notion of a convergence coefficient, c for regional and national parties and show that when c is high there is a significant centrifugal tendency acting on parties. An electoral survey of the 2004 election in Canada is used to construct a stochastic electoral model of the election with two regions: Québec and the rest of Canada. The survey allows us to estimate voter positions in the policy space. The variable choice set logit model is used to built a relationship between party position and vote share. We find that in the local Nash equilibrium for the election the two main parties with high competence valence, the Liberals and Conservatives, locate at the national electoral mean and the Bloc Québécois, with the highest competence valence, locates at the Québec electoral mean. The New Democratic Party has a low competence valence but remains at the national mean. The Greens, with lowest competence valence, locate away from the national mean to increase its vote share.     

The Political Economy of Child Mortality Decline in Tanzania and Uganda, 1995–2007

This article identifies political economy factors that help explain dramatic differences in the pace of child mortality reduction between Tanzania and Uganda from 1995 to 2007. The existing literature largely explains divergence in basic health outcomes with reference to economic variables such as GDP per capita. However, these factors cannot explain recent divergence across African countries with similar levels of GDP per capita, rates of economic growth, and levels of health funding. I argue that institutional and governance divergences between Tanzania and Uganda can be linked directly to differing coverage levels of key child health interventions (especially related to malaria control), and thus to differing child health outcomes. These institutional differences can be explained in part by historical factors, but more relevant causes can be found in recent political events. In Tanzania, there was an unusually effective project of institution building in the health sector, while in Uganda, by contrast, there was a negative political shock to the health system. This was driven by the repatrimonialization of the Ugandan state after President Yoweri Museveni??s decision to eliminate term limits in the 2001?C2006 period. This repatrimonialization process reversed previous health sector institutional gains and had particularly negative effects on child health service delivery in Uganda over the period in question.     

The Long March Through Whitehall: A Comment on Lowe and Pemberton,The Official History of the British Civil Service,Volume II: 1982–1997

The Thatcher‐Major ‘permanent revolution’ massively changed the British civil service and Whitehall. The political clout provided by strong prime ministerial backing was a key factor in sustaining the momentum of change over the 1980s and 1990s. The process of change developed piecemeal, in a step‐by‐step and, in some ways, even haphazard fashion, with ‘New Right’ ideology just one factor. Economic and financial constraints were important in driving and sustaining the Whitehall efficiency drives and managerial reforms of the period. Support from managerially minded insiders and skilful prime ministerial businessmen advisers brought in from outside were also crucial. In contrast, the Johnson government's approach to civil service reform may be self‐defeating if it creates too much instability and needless strife, rather than building on ideas and building up support at different levels from within Whitehall itself.     

The function of aggression in personality disordered patients

It has been suggested that psychological interventions for personality disorders should focus on improving adaptive expression of the functional needs expressed through problematic behaviors such as aggression. The measurement of function is a necessary condition for devising a function-based treatment approach. Two studies that employ a method for assessing the functions of aggressive behavior in personality disordered patients are described by: (a) a retrospective analysis, through file review of inpatient aggressive behaviors and of the index offenses of patients admitted for treatment, and (b) an analysis of inpatient aggressive incidents where staff and patients were interviewed to elicit functions. Results showed that most aggression had the function of expressing anger, although other functions were also evident. The profile of functions observed in the inpatient studies was somewhat dissimilar to that observed in the studies of predominantly psychotic patients. Therapeutic implications of these findings are discussed.     

Criminal Recidivism Among Juvenile Offenders: Testing the Incremental and Predictive Validity of Three Measures of Psychopathic Features

We studied the predictive, comparative, and incremental validity of three measures of psychopathic features (Psychopathy Checklist: Youth Version [PCL:YV]; Antisocial Process Screening Device [APSD]; Childhood Psychopathy Scale [CPS]) vis-à-vis criminal recidivism among 83 delinquent youth within a truly prospective design. Bivariate and multivariate analyses (Cox proportional hazard analyses) showed that of the three measures, the CPS was most consistently related to most types of recidivism in comparison to the other measures. However, incremental validity analyses demonstrated that all of the predictive effects for the measures of psychopathic features disappeared after conceptually relevant covariates (i.e., substance use, conduct disorder, young age, past property crime) were included in multivariate predictive models. Implications for the limits of these measures in applied juvenile justice assessment are discussed.     

Classifying partner femicide

The heterogeneity of domestic violent men has long been established. However, research has failed to examine this phenomenon among men committing the most severe form of domestic violence. This study aims to use a multidimensional approach to empirically construct a classification system of men who are incarcerated for the murder of their female partner based on the Holtzworth-Munroe and Stuart (1994) typology. Ninety men who had been convicted and imprisoned for the murder of their female partner or spouse in England were identified from two prison samples. A content dictionary defining offense and offender characteristics associated with two dimensions of psychopathology and criminality was developed. These variables were extracted from institutional records via content analysis and analyzed for thematic structure using multidimensional scaling procedures. The resultant framework classified 80% (n = 72) of the sample into three subgroups of men characterized by (a) low criminality/low psychopathology (15%), (b) moderate-high criminality/ high psychopathology (36%), and (c) high criminality/low-moderate psychopathology (49%). The latter two groups are akin to Holtzworth-Munroe and Stuart's (1994) generally violent/antisocial and dysphoric/borderline offender, respectively. The implications for intervention, developing consensus in research methodology across the field, and examining typologies of domestic violent men prospectively are discussed.     

Symptoms of trauma, perceptions of discrimination, and anger: a comparison between Australian indigenous and nonindigenous prisoners

Although the need for the development and provision of culturally appropriate rehabilitation programs for offenders is widely acknowledged, there is a lack of empirical data that can be used as a basis for the development of new programs. This article reports the findings of a comparison of indigenous and nonindigenous male prisoners on a range of measures relevant to the experience of anger by indigenous prisoners in Australia. The results suggest that indigenous participants are more likely to experience symptoms of early trauma, have greater difficulties identifying and describing feelings, and perceive higher levels of discrimination than nonindigenous prisoners. The implications of this work for the development of culturally appropriate and effective anger management programs for indigenous male prisoners are discussed.     

Beyond COVID-19: Five commentaries on reimagining governance for future crises and resilience

Several Canadian and international scholars offer commentaries on the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for governments and public service institutions, and fruitful directions for public administration research and practice. This second suite of commentaries considers the challenges confronting governments as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and in the decades to come with an increasingly broad lens: the need to understand and rethink the architecture of the state given recent and future challenges awaiting governments; the need to rethink government-civil society relations and policies to deliver services for increasingly diverse citizens and communities; the need for new repertoires and sensibilities on the part of governments for recognizing, anticipating, and engaging on governance risks despite imperfect expert knowledge and public skepticism; how the COVID-19 crisis has caused us to reconceive international and sub-national borders where new “borders” are being drawn; and the need to anticipate a steady stream of crises similar to the COVID-19 pandemic arising from climate change and related challenges, and develop new national and international governance strategies for fostering population and community resilience.