Scientific and legal standards of statistical evidence in toxic tort and discrimination suits

Many legal disputes turn on scientific, especially statistical, evidence. Traditionally scientists have accepted only that statistical evidence which satisfies a 95 percent (or 99 percent) rule — that is, only evidence which has less than five percent (or one percent) probability of resulting from chance.The rationale for this rule is the reluctance of scientists to accept anything less than the best-supported new knowledge. The rule reflects the internal needs of scientific practice. However, when uncritically adopted as a rule for admitting legal evidence, the seemingly innocuous 95 percent rule distorts the balance of interests historically protected by the legal system. In particular, plaintiffs in toxic tort and employment discrimination suits are effectively held to a heavier burden of proof in showing that their injuries were more probably than not caused by the defendant's actions. The result is that too many victims of toxic torts or employment discrimination cannot win legal redress for their injuries.Proposals to adopt stringent scientific rules of evidence thus implicate significant philosophical issues about the relation of evidence to belief and to practical action. The underlying objectives of the tort law system are not those of scientific practice, and each set of objectives has standards of evidence specific to it.Previous versions of this paper were read at the UCLA Law and Philosophy Discussion Group and at the Orange County Moral and Political Philosophy Discussion Group. We have benefitted from comments by Steve Munzer, Peter Aranella, Craig Ihara, Gary Watson, David Estlund, and Alex Rosenberg. A longer version of this paper is in preparation. In that paper we hope to develop some of the items merely sketched in this paper.     

What Next for NATO?

Whether or not nato still matters depends on whether or not it is able to deliver security where needed, which in turn depends on whether a broader agreement on its overall mission can be developed and sustained. U.S. security policy goals and the Europeans’ ability to share American priorities and accept the attendant risks are the main variables as nato's problems with ongoing operations deepen, especially the increasingly uphill battle its troops face in Afghanistan. Operations in that country are becoming the key test for nato's viability.     

Europe's Identity Problem and the New Islamist War

Fundamental transformations of identity within Europe have historically resulted in great wars, which in turn resulted in fundamental transformations of identity. This essay discusses, first, four great periods of war in Europe and the succession of identities they produced, and then the new war that Islamist terrorists, and Islamism more generally, have brought to Europe and the West. It considers the inherent weaknesses and failures of the now-dominant Western ideology and identity, liberalism, in dealing with this new war, and concludes with a consideration of the once-dominant Christian identity in Europe. That identity, much more than liberalism, would have strengthened Europe in its current war with Islamism.     

Not by accident: An analytical approach to traffic crash harm reduction

Purpose

This study examines whether a problem-oriented approach used by police in Cincinnati, Ohio called the Crash Analysis Reduction Strategy (CARS) corresponded with a change in the number of traffic crashes that resulted in injuries after implementation onset. Under the CARS model, police developed tactics that focused on targeting high-risk driving behaviors, impaired drivers, and crash hotspot locations within the city.

Methods

Using a two-phase strategy we first assess local impact by examining injury-related traffic crash patterns at targeted locations. Second, we examine whether traffic crashes that resulted in injuries in Cincinnati significantly diverged relative to similar outcomes across a number of comparison sites.

Results

Difference-in-difference negative binomial regression analyses indicates that traffic crashes were significantly lower in Cincinnati - down roughly 5.7% to 10.3% in the post-intervention period - when contrasted with comparison sites.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that comprehensive problem solving approaches can significantly reduce the risk of life changing events such as automobile crashes that result in injuries beyond traditional policing efforts that explicitly focus on crime and violence.