Immunocognitive Model of Depression Secondary to Anxiety in Adolescents

There is evidence that anxiety precedes the onset of depression and that rumination contributes to this risk pathway in adolescence. This study examined inflammatory biomarkers as mediators in a risk model of depressive symptoms secondary to anxiety symptoms among adolescents who ruminate. A sample of 140 adolescents (52% female, 54% African American, 40% Caucasian, 6% biracial, mean age at T1?=?16.5 years, SD?=?1.2 years) provided blood samples on two visits (T1 and T2; mean time between T1 and T2?=?13.5 months, SD?=?5.9 months). Self-report anxiety, depression, and rumination measures were given at T1 and the depression measure was given again at a third visit (T3, mean months since T1?=?26.0 months, SD?=?9.0 months). Higher anxiety predicted more interleukin-6, but not more C-reactive protein, for adolescents with high levels of rumination. Moderated mediation analyses (N for analysis after removing cases with missing data and outliers?=?86) indicated that interleukin-6, but not C-reactive protein, at T2 mediated the relationship between anxiety symptoms at T1 and depressive symptoms at T3, conditional on rumination. Anxiety and rumination interacted such that, as rumination increased, anxiety predicted greater inflammation and depressive symptoms. These results demonstrate that established cognitive vulnerabilities for the development of depressive symptoms secondary to anxiety symptoms in adolescence might indirectly operate though biological mechanisms such as inflammation. In addition to highlighting risk factors and potential treatment targets for depression, this study suggests a potential biological mechanism underlying the effects of psychotherapies that reduce rumination on negative affect (e.g., cognitive behavioral therapy).     

Development and Initial Findings of an Implementation Process Measure for Child Welfare System Change

This article describes a new measure designed to examine the process of implementation of child welfare systems change. The measure was developed to document the status of the interventions and strategies that are being implemented and the drivers that are being installed to achieve sustainable changes in systems. The measure was used in a Children's Bureau-supported national effort to assess the ongoing implementation of 24 systems-change projects in child welfare jurisdictions across the country. The article describes the process for measure development, method of administration and data collection, and quantitative and qualitative findings.     

False positive and false negative rates in self-reported intentions to offend: A replication and extension

Purpose

Studies of criminal decision making commonly rely on college students’ self-reported intentions to commit a hypothetical offense. The current study evaluates the predictive validity of these intentions to offend.

Methods

Undergraduate students (n = 726) read a fictitious but seemingly realistic newspaper article describing an illegal opportunity for acquiring digital music files, and then reported their intentions to act upon the opportunity. Afterward, participants’ real world attempts to follow-through on the opportunity were monitored covertly.

Results

Findings reveal that participants who reported weak intentions to offend typically refrained from the act, resulting in a low false negative rate. However, those who reported strong intentions to offend also typically refrained from the act, thereby resulting in a high false positive rate.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that while participants’ predictions of criminal abstention are generally accurate, their predictions of criminal involvement are more problematic. Such faulty intentions have important implications for research on criminal decision making.     

Setting weights for aggregate indices: An application to the commitment to development index and human development index

Abstract

Aggregate indices like UNDP's Human Development Index (HDI) or the Centre for Global Development and Foreign Policy's Commitment to Development Index (CDI) are subject to multiple criticisms. This paper addresses concerns linked to the equal weights used in the HDI and the CDI and evaluates alternative weighting schemes. It relies on an opinion survey conducted electronically among researchers from 60 countries to assess whether or not professional judgment affects the use of equal weights. Results of the opinion survey point to a surprising result for the HDI: despite widespread criticism of equal weights, a simple scheme based on equal weights is not only convenient but also consistent with the views of experts. For some components of the CDI, however, weights derived from the survey do differ from equal weights. Nevertheless, the weights emerging from the survey are not sufficiently different from equal weights to significantly alter country rankings.