A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Memories of half a life ago

A study of the recollections of childhood of a 12-year-old girl is placed in the context of developmental perceptions of time. Specifically, the transition from wishful to more realistic perceptions of the future is discussed, along with the growing capacity of the older child to incorporate experiences of the past into the present. The role of time perception in the formation of identity is presented from the perspective of psychological maturation and the growing comprehension of social roles and personal competence.In order to preserve confidentiality, I have used a fictitious name for a real family. In addition, the family has granted permission to publish this paper.Received B. A. from Harvard University and M.A. and Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in the Department of Sociology. Interests lie in the areas of social theory, poverty, psychotherapy, youth and adolescence, and perceptions of time.     

Conflict in the home environment of adolescents from divorced families: A longitudinal analysis

The purpose of this study was to examine conflict in the home environment of adolescents from divorced families across a 3-year period. Adolescents from intact (106) and mother-custody divorced (60) families participated. Interparental conflict and parent-adolescent relations were assessed. Results indicated that adolescents from divorced families did not experience more conflictual home environments than those from intact families. In fact, interparental relations after the first year and parent-adolescent relations in general appeared to be less conflictual in divorced families. Limitations and implications of the findings are discussed.     

The Prevalence of Mental Illness Among Inmates in a Rural State

A limited number of recent empirical studies suggest that inmates suffer from high rates of serious mental illness. Different explanations are offered depending on the type of institution: jail or prison. The literature is based largely on urban samples and does not offer comparisons of rates across types of institution within a single study. The present study examined a random sample of 213 jail and prison inmates in a rural state using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule (III-R). Among jail inmates there was little evidence of high rates of serious mental illness, suggesting the criminalization of mental illness may not be as evident in rural settings as urban areas. Among prison inmates, however, high rates of mental disorders were found, supporting previous findings in urban and rural jurisdictions. Implications of the findings are discussed in the context of a consolidated correctional system.     

Assessing and predicting the competency of juvenile court volunteer probation officers

The volunteer movement in criminal justice settings is burgeoning. It has been estimated that by the end of 1982 there will be over one million volunteers working in criminal-justice-related functions. The volunteer role that appears to be increasing most rapidly is that of the one-to-one counseling relationship with delinquent and young adult offenders on formal or informal probation. While the demand for volunteer probation officers is increasing rapidly, few of our courts have attempted to develop and validate screening instruments capable of assessing and predicting the general competency of the volunteer. The need for such instruments has been emphasized recently by Judge Keith J. Leenhouts, Director of Volunteers in Probation, a division of the National Council on Crime and Delinquency. The present study attempts to assess the usefulness of one such potential screening device, the Critical Incident Response Test (CIRT) developed by Traitel (1972) and others at the Oakland County Juvenile Court in Pontiac, Michigan. It is hoped that this study will motivate other probation departments and court volunteer programs to develop and validate similar selection instruments.