Verhandlungssituationen in der EU: Eine theoriegeleitete Analyse der Gemeinsamen Fischereipolitik

Auf der Grundlage des akteurzentrierten Institutionalismus präsentiert der vorliegende Beitrag eine theoriegeleitete und empirisch angereicherte Analyse von Verhandlungsergebnissen in der EU am Beispiel der Gemeinsamen Fischereipolitik. Dabei fasst das zugrunde liegende Untersuchungsdesign die Verhandlungsergebnisse als die abhängige, die Präferenzen der Mitgliedstaaten, die Präferenzen der Kommission sowie den institutionellen Rahmen als die unabhängigen Variablen auf. Dieses Untersuchungsdesign wird dann empirisch an zwei wichtigen Verhandlungssituationen überprüft, die gleichzeitig mit der Kompetenzübertragung der Fischereipolitik auf die europäische Ebene einhergehen. In der ersten Verhandlungssituation geht es um die Einführung der Strukturpolitik und der Gemeinsamen Marktorganisation für den Fischereisektor im Jahr 1970. Bei der zweiten Verhandlungssituation steht die Einführung der Bestanderhaltungspolitik für die Fischbestände im Jahr 1983 im Mittelpunkt. Zusätzlich zu den Verhandlungspositionen der Regierungen der Mitgliedstaaten wird in diesem Beitrag anhand der Rolle der Kommission und der formellen (Einstimmigkeitsprinzip) und informellen Regeln (Schatten der Zukunft) gezeigt, wie sich diese Variablen auf die Politikergebnisse auswirken.     

The Local Voter: A Geographically Weighted Approach to Ecological Inference

Drawing inferences about individual behavior from aggregate ecological data has been a persistent problem in electoral and behavioral studies, in spite of important methodological advances. In a recent article Anselin and Tam Cho (2002) provided Monte Carlo evidence that King's Ecological Inference (EI) solution will produce biased estimates in the presence of extreme spatial heterogeneity. In this article we provide further empirical evidence that supports their findings and shows that in the presence of spatial effects the residuals of Goodman's naïve model exhibit the same spatial structure that King's local  B ^B _i  estimates. Solving for extreme spatial heterogeneity, it is argued here, requires controlling the omitted variable bias expressed in the spatial structure of much ecological data. In this article we propose a Geographically Weighted Regression approach (GWR) for solving problems of spatial aggregation bias and spatial autocorrelation that affect all known methods of ecological inference. The estimation process is theoretically intuitive and computationally simple, showing that a well-specified GWR approach to Goodman and King's Ecological Inference methods may result in unbiased and consistent local estimates of ecological data that exhibit extreme spatial heterogeneity.     

Bringing the Past Back in: How Attitudes towards the Democratic Transition Influence the Portuguese Voter

Abstract

This article analyses the way in which attitudes towards the transition to democracy explain party identification and ideology in Portugal. This question is important because the transition to democracy in Portugal was a turbulent process marked by a rupture with the past and institutional fluidity. It has also conditioned the main political parties’ relationships with the electorate and each other since 1974. I compare the same explanatory model results from two surveys, conducted in 2004 and 2014, respectively, to understand the extent to which perceptions about the transition help characterise the Portuguese voter over the last decade.     

Evaluation of the (hu)MANid program for sex and ancestry estimation in a diverse,contemporary CT scan-based sample

Human remains from forensic and bioarcheological contexts are often fragmentary, requiring methods for estimating a forensic profile that are based upon limited skeletal features. In 2017, Berg and Keryhercz created an online application, (hu)MANid, that provides sex and ancestry estimation from mandibular morphoscopic traits and linear measurements. In this study, we examine the utility of the (hu)MANid application in a diverse, urban US adult sample (aged 20–45; n = 143) derived from computed tomography (CT) scans. We secondarily conduct a preliminary analysis of the program's utility in a sample of adolescents (aged 15–17; n = 40). Six morphoscopic, and eleven morphometric traits were recorded as directed by the literature associated with the (hu)MANid program. Percent correct classification and posterior predictive values were calculated for the sex and ancestry estimations output by the program; chi-squared tests were employed to compare self-reported and predicted ancestry. In the adult sample, sex was accurately predicted for 75.52% of the sample. Ancestry prediction, however, was less favorable ranging from 19.3% to 50% correct. For the adolescent sample, correct sex estimation (45%) did not surpass what could occur by chance alone, though ancestry prediction fared better than in the larger adult sample (percent correct prediction overall average: 47.5%, range 35.71%–71.43%). The (hu)MANid application shows utility for use with CT scan-derived adult samples for sex estimation, but caution is warranted for ancestry estimation and use with samples that may not have reached full adult maturity.     

Can the hidden hand of the market be an effective and legitimate regulator? The case of animal welfare under a labeling for consumer choice policy approach

In Australia, labeling for consumer choice, rather than higher government regulation, has become an important strand of the policy approach to addressing food animal welfare. This paper illustrates the usefulness of “regulatory network analysis” to uncover the potentials and limitations of market‐based governance to address contentious yet significant issues like animal welfare. We analyzed the content of newspaper articles from major Australian newspapers and official policy documents between 1990 and 2014 to show how the regulatory network influenced the framing of the regulatory problem, and the capacity and legitimacy of different regulatory actors at three “flashpoints” of decisionmaking about layer hen welfare in egg production. We suggest that the government policy of offering consumers the choice to buy cage free in the market allowed large‐scale industry to continue the egg laying business as usual with incremental innovation and adjustment. These incremental improvements only apply to the 20 percent or so of hens producing “free‐range” eggs. We conclude with a discussion of when and how labeling for consumer choice might create markets and public discourses that make possible more effective and legitimate regulation of issues such as layer hen welfare.     

Prime ministers in the age of austerity: an increase in the personalisation of voting behaviour

This article tests the personalisation thesis in Portugal (2002–2015), as well as its causes, focusing on changes in the level of party identification and perceptions of the economy. Portugal is an interesting example given its recent experience of a harsh economic crisis, as well as a decline in party identification. Results confirm a growing exogenous impact of leader evaluations on voting over the period but not in a linear fashion. During the crisis, the growing trend of leader effects for the incumbent party continues for those voters who have a positive perception of the economy. Conversely, for the main opposition party, leader effects are greater for those who perceive the economy as being worse. Thus the crisis operates as a catalyst for leader effects. The impact of leaders is also greater among the de-aligned, the numbers of which rise considerably during the period under analysis. It is voters with no party identification, who use leaders as proxies to a greater extent. These conclusions may extend to further studies on leader effects in Western democracies and help to shed light on the process through which leaders are becoming more relevant in voting decisions.     

Detection of Pb,Ba, and Sb in Cadaveric Maggots and Pupae by ICP-MS*

The concentrations of lead (Pb), barium (Ba), and antimony (Sb), characteristic of GSR, were determined in soil sediments and immature (larvae) of cadaveric flies of the family Calliphoridae, by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). This research refers to a case study from two real crime scenes in which the corpses were in an advanced state of decomposition. In case 1, the victim had holes similar to gunshot wounds, and in case 2, there was no evidence of perforations in the corpse. Soil sediment collection was performed at three different points of the terrain, at a minimum distance of 10 m from the corpse, for cases 1 and 2. In relation to the collection of immatures, larvae were collected in regions of the mouth, nose, and orifices similar to the entry of firearms projectile into the body, for case 1, and collection of larvae and pupae, located on the body and underneath it, for case 2. It was possible to detect and quantify the three elements of interest (Pb, Ba, and Sb) by ICP-MS in both sediment and cadaveric larvae. Concentrations of 4.44, 8.74, and 0.08 μg/g were obtained for Pb, Ba, and Sb, respectively, in the soil for case 1. For the case 2, the concentrations in Pb, Ba, and Sb were from 16.34 to 26.02 μg/g; from 32.64 to 57.97 μg/g and from 0.042 to 0.30 μg/g, respectively. In the larvae, Pb, Ba, and Sb were quantified in cases 1 and 2 with a concentration of 6.28 and 1.78 μg/g for Pb, 1.49 and 2.94 μg/g for Ba, 0.50 μg/g and <LD for Sb, respectively. These new results present the detection of characteristic elements of GSR in cadaveric larvae in humans in a real crime scene, besides highlighting the importance of the study of immature flies, using the ICP-MS technique in forensic analysis.     

Paths for improving non-profit impact on society: lessons from government–non-profit relationships in Brazil

How can non-profit organisations achieve their intended impact on society? This article analyses factors that influence non-profit action in two key situations: when these organisations work autonomously from the government, and when they work in collaboration with the government. Based on interviews with experienced non-profit leaders in Brazil, the article presents typical paths for success and common reasons for failure in achieving non-profits’ intended outcomes. Organisational, relational and contextual factors influence non-profit action, leading to different outcomes. Brazilian non-profits provide lessons for non-profit action in developing countries contexts that experience cycles of political and economic instability.     

Brazil as ‘Southern donor’: beyond hierarchy and national interests in development cooperation?

This article analyses Brazil's growing role in external development assistance. During Lula da Silva's presidency, cooperation with developing countries grew dramatically. While the official position is that Brazilian development assistance is moved not by national economic or political interests, but by international ‘solidarity’, and does not reproduce the North–South traditional aid relations, we suggest that it is not completely divorced from national, sub-national or sectoral interests and cannot be viewed apart from Brazil's broader foreign policy objectives. Brazil does pursue political, economic and commercial interests and, concomitantly, has made a positive difference in the recipient countries. However, more empirical research and field investigation are needed to better gauge the impact of Brazil's assistance initiatives and their contributions to South–South cooperation more broadly. During Lula's terms (2003–2010), Brazil could be classified as a ‘Southern donor’, which expresses the country's own novelties, and tensions, of simultaneously being a donor and a developing country.