An Integration of Hindsight Bias and Counterfactual Thinking: Decision-Making and Drug Courier Profiles

Counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias have each generated separate, substantial bodies of research and provided insight into some areas of legal decision-making. An investigation of the relationship between Counterfactual thinking and hindsight bias in a situation in which both are implicated is presented in a legal decision-making context utilizing drug courier profiles and illegal search and seizure. The findings, which demonstrate each of these cognitive processes and show a pattern of results that supports an integrative relationship between them, are discussed in the contexts of social cognition and of legal decision-making. A suggested causal model of decision-making in this context is also presented. Specific implications of these findings for civil actions to remedy illegal searches are discussed.     

Neuroscience and the Detection of Deception

The detection of deception is among the most important and pressing requirements faced by federal agencies with national security responsibilities. The polygraph is insufficient in its present state of development for meeting the needs of national security. While some neuroscience‐based alternatives to the polygraph have been proposed (e.g., EEG and fMRI), there are significant problems with these techniques and consideration of their operational use is premature. The development of a more effective means for detecting deception will require substantial conceptual advances in the science of deception, in particular the establishment of a sound theoretical basis on which to design such a system. Neuroscience and related fields can make significant contributions toward the development of a theory of deception, given sufficient government support and commitment to such an effort. However, even a sound theory of deception cannot guarantee success; it is vital that the associated policy, legal, and ethical implications of such a system be taken into account.     

Distinguishing graduates from dropouts and dismissals: Who fails boot camp?

This study of 784 inmates in a boot camp in a southern state was designed to determine what elements from life-course theory distinguished between graduates, dropouts, and dismissals from the program in this facility. Multinomial logistic regression analysis showed that several social bonds—such as employment, income, marital status—and personal assets like self-efficacy differentiated graduates from dropouts and dismissals from that program. In contrast, selling drugs, illegal income, and carrying a weapon also were associated with graduation.Lack of self-control, drug use, and peer association differentiated dropouts from graduates, whereas history of being abused, emotional problems, and suicidal attempts distinguished dismissals from graduates. The implications of these findings for further research and current decision-making are discussed.     

Community care as a penal sanction

Conclusion The community participation model, which rests on the philosophy of reintegration, is an important trend in recent penal policy. The sentence of community care in New Zealand is an illustration of that trend. However, there are lessons to be learned from the past four years. Clearly, the model has its practical limits. The extent to which the community wishes to participate in the provision of penal services is undoubtedly overstated by its proponents; as a result, community involvement is unlikely to be forthcoming unless the government provides adequate funding to groups and individuals providing such services to offenders. Even then, a gap is likely to remain between the rhetoric and the reality of community participation. The majority of the community care programs are bureaucratically organized, professionally staffed, and undertaken within the context of structured thera peutic regimes. They thus fall well short of the ideal of spontaneous, neighborly concern, which is such a strong part of the Western ideology of community. While some programs, particularly cultural programs offered by ethnic minority groups, have involved comparatively noninstitutional and informal relationships between sponsor and offender, these are few in number and have made little impact so far on the way in which the criminal justice system deals with offenders from ethnic minority groups. In sum, there is little to distinguish the majority of programs from conventional attempts at rehabilitation. Although higher levels of funding and more vigorous community development efforts by probation officers may stimulate community involvement, the New Zealand experience suggests that, at least in cultures without established processes of informal care and control, the community participation model will not be the new panacea in penal policy.This is a revised and expanded version of a paper given at the second conference of the Society for the Reform of Criminal Law, Parliament Buildings, Ottawa, Canada, August 1–4, 1988.B.A., University of Auckland 1971; LL.B. (hons.) University of Auckland 1973; Ph.D., Cambridge University 1978.     

Towards a model of effective knowledge transfer within transnationals: The case of Chinese foreign invested enterprises

In this paper Chinese foreign invested enterprises (FIEs) are employed as prototypes to generate a model of how transnationals can transfer both tacit and explicit knowledge between their units as well as between FIEs and the parent organization. We propose that successful intra-organization knowledge transfer depends upon: (1) collective creation of knowledge as intellectual and social capital available throughout the organization; (2) trust-based collaboration among geographically dispersed entities that form the transnational organization; and (3) the willingness and ability of organizational units to use that knowledge. The paper further proposes that organizational knowledge should ideally flow in multiple directions, providing learning opportunities for both investing and host organizations. Implications for transfer of best practices, a specific form of tacit knowledge, are also offered.     

Environmental Governance: The Role of Institutions in Causing and Confronting Environmental Problems

This article describes and explains in accessible terms major findings arising from the work of the long-term international research project on the Institutional Dimensions of Global Environmental Change (IDGEC). In analyzing the roles institutions play in both causing and confronting environmental problems, the project directs attention to three analytic themes – known as the problems of fit, interplay, and scale – and seeks to illuminate these concerns through empirical studies of marine, terrestrial, and atmospheric systems. IDGEC science has highlighted the pervasiveness of institutional misfits and begun to identify the reasons why misfits often prove difficult to eliminate, even when their existence becomes widely known. Research conducted under the auspices of the project demonstrates the growing impact of national and even international institutions on the effectiveness of local resource regimes. Similarly, IDGEC research has identified reasons why policy instruments that work well at the national level (e.g., tradable permits) are frequently difficult or impossible to transfer to the international level. To make the discussion of these findings concrete, the project has explored the problem of fit with particular reference to the performance of Exclusive Economic Zones, the problem of interplay through an analysis of the fate of tropical forests, and the problem of scale through an account of the limits of emissions trading as a policy instrument in the climate change regime.