Referendums on Membership and European Integration 1972–2015

There are many myths about referendums. The most common one is that voters are inherently sceptical and tend to vote no when given the opportunity. This article analyses some of the commonly held ‘truths’ about referendums on EU matters. Based on a statistical analysis of all forty‐three EU‐related referendums since 1972, it shows that governments tend to lose referendums if they have been in office for a long time, that emotive words on the ballot paper are correlated with a high yes vote and that a high turnout is correlated with a vote against European integration, but campaign spending is inconsequential. Based solely on statistical evidence from the previous forty‐three referendums, the opponents of EU membership will win the Brexit referendum.     

Designing policies that intentionally stick: policy feedback in a changing climate

Policy feedback is a widely used concept, but many who use it only focus on the positive and/or unintentional feedback effects of certain types of policy. The literature as a whole is therefore poorly equipped to make sense of the negative policy feedbacks that often appear in more regulatory areas such as climate change, where target groups are put under pressure to shoulder concentrated costs. Advocates of the ‘new’ policy design have an opportunity to address this gap by exploring how policy makers approach the design of policies that intentionally generate positive policy feedbacks and/or are resilient to negative ones. This paper contributes to that effort by identifying the conditions under which specific instrument designs are likely to have opportunity enhancing and/or constraining effects. It relates these expectations to a design situation where positive feedback seemed unlikely, and hence, the challenge of designing locked-in policies was correspondingly greater. It concludes by drawing on the findings of this exploratory case to investigate what the ‘new’ policy design can do better to explicate the temporal aspects of design.     

Institutional Trust in Contemporary Moscow

Levels of institutional trust in Russia are amongst the lowest in the world. As yet, however, little research has focused on this phenomenon at the sub-national level. The current study examines trust in social and political institutions among citizens in Moscow in 2004. Results showed that levels of institutional trust are extremely low and that there were only three institutions (the church, president and hospitals) that were more trusted than distrusted. Moreover, although the effects of some demographic and other independent variables on trust stretched across institutions, several variables had a unique impact in terms of trust in the president.     

Structural validity of the posttraumatic stress disorder checklist among college students with a trauma history

The authors conducted confirmatory factor analyses to test three-factor and four-factor models of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) using the PTSD Checklist with college students reporting a traumatic event history. The authors found support for the three-factor DSM-IV-based PTSD diagnostic model including reexperiencing, avoidance/numbing, and hyperarousal symptom factors, with slightly better support for a four-factor model separating the avoidance and numbing factors. Results further attest to the PTSD Checklist's construct validity, and to research finding that PTSD avoidance and numbing constructs are distinct.     

Effects of childhood adversity on bullying and cruelty to animals in the United States: findings from a national sample

This study examined effects of type of and cumulative burden of childhood adversities on bullying and cruelty to animals in the United States. Data were derived from Waves I and II of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults. Structured psychiatric interviews were completed by trained lay interviewers between 2001-2002 and 2003-2004. Although the effects of childhood adversity diminished with the inclusion of confounding variables, several adversities remained significant. For bullying, these included being made to do chores that were too difficult or dangerous, threatening to hit or throw something, pushing, shoving, slapping, or hitting, and hitting that left bruises, marks, or injuries. With respect to cruelty to animals, swearing and saying hurtful things, having a parent or other adult living within the home that went to jail or prison, and adult/other person fondling/touching in a sexual way were significant. The final models indicated that the cumulative burden of childhood adversities had strong effects on the increased likelihood of bullying behavior but not cruelty to animals.     

Uneven and combined confusion: on the geopolitical origins of capitalism and the rise of the west

This article offers a critique of Alexander Anievas and Kerem Ni?ancio?lu’s How the West came to rule: the geopolitical origins of capitalism. We argue that while all historiography features a number of silences, shortcomings or omissions, the omissions in How the West came to rule lead to a mistaken view of the emergence of capitalism. There are two main issues to be confronted. First, we argue that Anievas and Ni?ancio?lu have an inadequate and misleading understanding of “capital” and “capitalism” that tilts them towards a theoretical stance that comes very close to arguing that everything caused capitalism while at the same time having no clear and convincing definition of “capital” or “capitalism”. Second, there are at least three omissions—particular to England/Britain within a geopolitical context—that should be discussed in any attempt to explain the development of capitalism: the financial revolution and the Bank of England; the transition to coal energy; and the capitalization of state power as it relates to war, colonialism and slavery. We conclude by calling for a connected-histories approach within the framework of capital as power.     

Expanding a community's justice response to sex crimes through advocacy, prosecutorial, and public health collaboration: introducing the RESTORE program

Problems in criminal justice system response to date-acquaintance rape and nonpenetration sexual offenses include (a) they are markers of a sexual offending career, yet are viewed as minor; (b) perpetrators are not held accountable in ways that reduce reoffense; and (c) criminal justice response disappoints and traumatizes victims. To address these problems, a collaboration of victim services, prosecutors, legal scholars, and public health professionals are implementing and evaluating RESTORE, a victim-driven, community-based restorative justice program for selected sex crimes. RESTORE prepares survivors, responsible persons (offenders), and both parties' families and friends for face-to-face dialogue to identify the harm and develop a redress plan. The program then monitors the offender's compliance for 12 months. The article summarizes empirical data on problems in criminal justice response, defines restorative justice models, and examines outcome. Then the RESTORE program processes and goals are described. The article highlights community collaboration in building and sustaining this program.     

Federal Criminal Careers: an Empirical Examination of the Post-Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA)

The criminal career paradigm is a major research area but has largely overlooked federal offenders and federal data. Drawing on a population of federal supervised release clients in the Midwestern United States, the current study examined the predictive validity of the federal Post-Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) and its subscales for their association with six parameters of the criminal career. Poisson, negative binomial, and logistic regression models showed that PCRA Risk was significantly associated with annual offending rate (lambda), chronicity, prison misconduct, noncompliance on supervised release, having a warrant requested on supervised release, and career criminal status. Various PCRA subscales also were significantly associated with criminal career outcomes especially for current community supervision outcomes. These effects withstood confounding effects for age, sex, race, age of arrest onset, federal criminal history rank, and total prison exposure. The study supported basic criminal career findings using federal data and showed that a standard risk assessment actuarial in the federal system has utility as an indicator of the criminal career.     

The Effect of School Dropout on Verbal Ability in Adulthood: A Propensity Score Matching Approach

Compared to high school graduates, adolescents who drop out of school are more likely to have a range of negative outcomes, including lower verbal capacities; however, the true nature of this association is not well-understood. Dropping out of school could have an important effect on reducing verbal skills, or the link between dropping out of school and diminished verbal skills could be a spurious association that is the result of unmeasured confounding variables. The current study tested these two competing perspectives by using propensity-score-matching (PSM) to unpack the association between school dropout and verbal skills among 7,317 respondents from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (51% female, 49% male; 62% Caucasian, 38% minority). The results of the PSM models indicated a small yet meaningful statistically significant effect of dropout on verbal skills in adulthood even after taking into account a range of confounders. We conclude by discussing the implications of our results.