Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses

William Roberts Clark University of Michigan, Center for Political Studies, ISR 4202 Box 1248, 426 Thompson Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1248 Matt Golder Florida State University, Department of Political Science, 531 Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2230 e-mail: thomas.brambor{at}nyu.edu e-mail: wrclark{at}umich.edu e-mail: matt.golder{at}nyu.edu (corresponding author) Multiplicative interaction models are common in the quantitativepolitical science literature. This is so for good reason. Institutionalarguments frequently imply that the relationship between politicalinputs and outcomes varies depending on the institutional context.Models of strategic interaction typically produce conditionalhypotheses as well. Although conditional hypotheses are ubiquitousin political science and multiplicative interaction models havebeen found to capture their intuition quite well, a survey ofthe top three political science journals from 1998 to 2002 suggeststhat the execution of these models is often flawed and inferentialerrors are common. We believe that considerable progress inour understanding of the political world can occur if scholarsfollow the simple checklist of dos and don'ts for using multiplicativeinteraction models presented in this article. Only 10% of thearticles in our survey followed the checklist.     

Presidential Coattails and Legislative Fragmentation

Considerable evidence suggests that legislative fragmentation can negatively affect the survival of democratic presidential regimes. While there is a vast literature examining the determinants of legislative fragmentation, one factor that has traditionally been overlooked is the impact of presidential elections. Do presidential elections increase or decrease legislative fragmentation? Does it matter if presidents are elected by plurality rule or by runoff? Using a new dataset that covers all democratic legislative and presidential elections between 1946 and 2000, I find that presidential coattails can reduce, increase, or have no effect on legislative fragmentation depending on the number of presidential candidates. I also find strong evidence that social heterogeneity increases the number of presidential candidates when runoff systems are employed. Taken together, these results suggest that the widespread adoption of runoffs by newly democratic presidential regimes will likely increase legislative fragmentation, thereby putting their democratic survival at increased risk.     

Protective Orders and Domestic Violence: Risk Factors for Re-Abuse

One of the few legal tools for protecting victims of domestic violence is the civil Protection Order (PO). How effective they were in preventing re-abuse was analyzed by examining court and police records from 210 couples in which female victims (or applicants) filed POs against their violent partners. Police records for 2 years prior and two years following the issuance of a PO were reviewed. Results indicated a significant decline in the probability of abuse following a PO. Prior to filing a PO, 68% of the women reported physical violence. After filing, only 23% reported physical violence. Several risk factors were assessed and it was found that very low SES women were more likely to report re-abuse as were African-Americans.     

Lustration after totalitarianism: Poland’s attempt to reconcile with its Communist past

The former Communist countries in Central and Eastern Europe have attempted to reconcile their Communist past in different ways. It is in Poland, however, where the issue of dealing with its Communist past through attempts at lustration has been especially fraught. It will be argued here that Poland’s lustration problems are caused primarily by a failure to understand the specific nature of totalitarian dictatorship that existed in Poland under Communist rule.     

Opting Out of Political Discussions

Methodological limitations have hindered our ability to understand the conditions that make individuals seek or avoid political discussions. We introduce a methodological approach to assess communication preferences in contexts where these choices are difficult to measure. We conduct three experiments to examine how the characteristics of the people in a discussion, as well as its topic, influence an individual’s “price” to participate. Participants indicated how much they would need to be compensated to participate in a short discussion about a randomly assigned topic (political or nonpolitical) under different group compositions (co-partisans, out-partisans, or a mixed group). We find that individuals demanded significantly more compensation to engage in a discussion with out-partisans than with co-partisans, for both political and non-political topics.     

Unpacking the Relationships between Impulsivity,Neighborhood Disadvantage,and Adolescent Violence: An Application of a Neighborhood-Based Group Decomposition

Scholars have become increasingly interested in how social environments condition the relationships between individual risk-factors and adolescent behavior. An appreciable portion of this literature is concerned with the relationship between impulsivity and delinquency across neighborhood settings. The present article builds upon this growing body of research by considering the more nuanced pathways through which neighborhood disadvantage shapes the development of impulsivity and provides a situational context for impulsive tendencies to manifest in violent and aggressive behaviors. Using a sample of 12,935 adolescent from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) (mean age?=?15.3, 51% female; 20% Black, 17% Hispanic), we demonstrate the extent to which variation in the association between impulsivity and delinquency across neighborhoods can be attributed to (1) differences in mean-levels of impulsivity and violence and (2) differences in coefficients across neighborhoods. The results of a series of multivariate regression models indicate that impulsivity is positively associated with self-reported violence, and that this relationship is strongest among youth living in disadvantaged neighborhoods. The moderating effect of neighborhood disadvantage can be attributed primarily to the stronger effect of impulsivity on violence in these areas, while differences in average levels of violence and impulsivity account for a smaller, yet nontrivial portion of the observed relationship. These results indicate that the differential effect of impulsivity on violence can be attributed to both developmental processes that lead to the greater concentration of violent and impulsive adolescents in economically deprived neighborhoods as well as the greater likelihood of impulsive adolescents engaging in violence when they reside in economically disadvantaged communities.