Optimal Government Budgeting Contingency Reserve Funds

During recent years, more state and local governments have made provisions in their budgets for establishing and maintaining contingency reserve funds. A recent study by the National Conference of State Legislatures(NCSL) found that over half of all states now have such funds. The basic purpose of these contingency reserve funds, also referred to as "rainy day" funds, is to insulate governmental budgets from unexpected fiscal disruptions brought about by such factors as unanticipated revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns. What have received less attention, however, are the criteria which governments need to use in deciding whether to establish such contingency reserves in the first place, and if so, how large these reserves should optimally be. This article explores these two issues, using the State of California as an illustrative case study     

Acute selenium poisoning: suicide by ingestion

Selenium is a ubiquitous element in the environment essential to the human diet and widely utilized in industrial processes. Fatal human selenium intoxication is rare. The authors report a case in which investigators recovered a bottle of gun-bluing agent beside a 24-year-old man. He exhibited signs and symptoms typical of acute selenium intoxication presenting with nausea and vomiting, followed by pulmonary edema and rapid cardiovascular collapse approximately 3 to 4 h after ingestion. Classic electrocardiographic (EKG) changes, which have been reported to occur in acute selenium intoxication, included sinus tachycardia with ST wave alteration. Toxicological results confirmed elevated blood and tissue concentrations. The cause of death was ascribed to acute selenium intoxication, which ensued rapidly after oral consumption. The manner of death was suicide. This case report, which presents an overview of acute and chronic selenium poisoning, underscores the value of thorough toxicologic analyses of tissue and body fluids in humans.     

Survey of crowbar and household paints in burglary cases-population studies, transfer and interpretation

Experimental data useful for the interpretation of paint evidence recovered during burglary cases were obtained. A population study was carried out on 41 blue crowbars seized on suspects in Switzerland and 37 blue paints traces found at burglary scenes. Paint traces were also searched on the blades of 207 crowbars seized by the police in Switzerland and 24 white traces were analysed: these paints were analysed using infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) in order to estimate relative frequencies of each paint type. Simulated contacts were carried out between crowbars and painted wood in order to study the phenomenon of transfer and to evaluate the amount of paint transferred: a total of 198 simulations were carried out including individual, successive and cross transfer. The paint properties such as the chemical composition and its age influenced the amount of paint transferred. Cross transfer from the tool paint to the wood and vice versa was regularly observed. Moreover, secondary transfer of paint coming from the preceding wooden surfaces was also systematically observed: this could establish links between several burglary scenes and a suspected tool. A scenario of a burglary case involving the cross transfer between tool and household paints is proposed as a numerical example: the evaluation of such case was formalised using likelihood ratios based on the experimental data obtained.     

Substance use,health, and mental health: problems and service utilization among incarcerated women

This article profiles self-reported substance use, health, and mental health problems among a sample of incarcerated women in Kentucky as well as lifetime service utilization. Findings indicate that a high percentage of women reported use of alcohol, cocaine, and multiple substances during the month before incarceration. In addition, participants reported common health problems such as dental, female reproductive, physical injuries, and mental health problems including depression and anxiety. Participants reported moderate use of emergency room and mental health treatment but limited substance abuse treatment utilization. Implications for criminal justice programs and linkages with community-based aftercare services for women are recommended based on findings that health and mental health problems are associated with service utilization before incarceration.     

A Linear Poisson Autoregressive Model: The Poisson AR(p) Model

Time series of event counts are common in political scienceand other social science applications. Presently, there arefew satisfactory methods for identifying the dynamics in suchdata and accounting for the dynamic processes in event countsregression. We address this issue by building on earlier workfor persistent event counts in the Poisson exponentially weightedmoving-average model (PEWMA) of Brandt et al. (American Journalof Political Science 44(4):823–843, 2000). We developan alternative model for stationary mean reverting data, thePoisson autoregressive model of order p, or PAR(p) model. Issuesof identification and model selection are also considered. Wethen evaluate the properties of this model and present bothMonte Carlo evidence and applications to illustrate.