Mortgage lending,banking crises,and financial stability in Asia and Europe

Our paper investigates the relationship between financial stability and mortgage lending. We estimated the effect of the share of mortgage lending by individual banks (together with some control variables) on two measures of financial stability—the bank Z-score and the non-performing loan ratio—for a sample of 1889 banks in 65 advanced and emerging economies for the period 1987–2014 from the Bankscope database. We specifically compared the behavior of banks in Europe and Asia. We find evidence that an increased share of mortgage lending is positive for financial stability, specifically by lowering the probability of default by financial institutions and reducing the non-performing loan ratio, at least in non-crisis periods, for levels of mortgage shares up to 49–68%. For higher levels of mortgage lending shares, the impact on financial stability turns negative. Also, the occurrence of a banking crisis reduces the diversification benefits associated with mortgage lending. Compared with the base sample, Asian banks show greater financial stability during non-crisis periods, but are more negatively affected by a higher mortgage ratio during crisis periods, while European banks show greater financial stability during non-crisis periods, but are less negatively affected during crisis periods. Finally, a higher level of regulatory quality improves both financial stability measures, but the effects of macroprudential measures are found to be mixed.     

Optimization of Performance Validity Test (PVT) Cutoffs across Healthy and Non-Referred Clinical Research Samples

Performance validity tests (PVTs) effectively detect suboptimal test performance, but cutoff scores for a given test may differ between populations. This research examines how optimal PVT cutoffs differ in a collegiate research population when mental health and clinical conditions are considered. Healthy controls (n = 328) and non-referred students with self-reported clinical conditions (n = 42) were assigned to perform their best while others simulated ADHD symptoms (n = 123). PVT indices were derived from a stand-alone measure (Victoria Symptom Validity Test) and embedded measures (California Verbal Learning Test – Second Edition; Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale – Fourth Edition, Digit Span). PVT cutoffs with the highest sensitivity, while maintaining adequate specificity, were identified when the control groups were considered together, and when students with reported clinical conditions were considered separately. Mean differences in PVT performances were found between the simulation group and control groups, but not between clinical and nonclinical controls. The optimized cutoffs differed for five of eight PVT indices when all controls were considered together versus the clinical control group, only. When discordance was observed, cutoffs tended to be lower (less stringent) for the non-referred clinical control group. Together, these optimized cutoffs tended to be more stringent than previously established cutoffs. This study suggests that PVT cutoffs may be responsibly altered in a research context in the presence of a clinical condition. Future research should investigate if PVT classification accuracies can be improved in clinical and forensic samples while considering clinical conditions.     

Real Solutions for Fake News? Measuring the Effectiveness of General Warnings and Fact-Check Tags in Reducing Belief in False Stories on Social Media

Political Behavior - Social media has increasingly enabled “fake news” to circulate widely, most notably during the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign. These intentionally false...     

Curriculum Reform in The Common Core Era: Evaluating Elementary Math Textbooks Across Six U.S. States

Can a school or district improve student achievement simply by switching to a higher-quality textbook or curriculum? We conducted the first multi-textbook, multi-state effort to estimate textbook efficacy following widespread adoption of the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) and associated changes in the textbook market. Pooling textbook adoption and student test score data across six geographically and demographically diverse U.S. states, we found little evidence of differences in average achievement gains for schools using different math textbooks. We found some evidence of greater variation in achievement gains among schools using pre-CCSS editions, which may have been more varied in their content than post-CCSS editions because they were written for a broader set of standards. We also found greater variation among schools that had more exposure to a given text. However, these differences were small. Despite considerable interest and attention to textbooks as a low-cost, “silver bullet” intervention for improving student outcomes, we conclude that the adoption of a new textbook or set of curriculum materials, on its own, is unlikely to achieve this goal.     

Does the police code of silence vary with police assignment? An empirical exploration of the relation between the code and assignment

ABSTRACT

This paper contains an in-depth exploration of the relation between police code of silence and police assignment. A police integrity survey was used to measure the contours of the code among Croatian patrol officers, detectives, and community-policing officers. Samples of police officers evaluated fourteen hypothetical scenarios describing various forms of police misconduct. Whereas the type of assignment was a weak predictor of the respondents’ adherence to the code of silence, the respondents’ assessments of misconduct seriousness and expected discipline, as well as perceptions whether other officers would report misconduct, were strong predictors of the respondents’ own expressed adherence to the code.     

Red Dawn is Now: Race vs. Nation and the American Election

This article details the long-standing struggle within the American far right between those whose mission it is to resist the perceived subversion of international communism and its neo-Soviet successors now in power in the Kremlin and those whose mission is dedicated to preserving the White Race from the twin threats of miscegenation and marginalization from the corridors of power. Using the metaphor of the 1984 low-budget spectacular Red Dawn and noting the current pattern of Russian interference in the election and contacts with the Trump campaign, it traces the struggle from the ascendancy of anti-communism in the 1950s and 1960s to the current triumph of the race warriors and conspiracy theorists who championed the candidacy of Donald Trump. “Red Dawn Is Now” concludes with the observation that, for those who most fear foreign subversion, the revelations about Russian penwetration of the American election process and the Trump presidency represents a 21st-century version of the Soviet occupation that the young patriots of Red Dawn fame successfully repelled. If this is so, it suggests the possibility that Thomas Jefferson's observation that “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots & tyrants” may be prophetic and that the fifth wave of terrorism might at long last be at hand.