A New Approach to the Analysis of Geo-Political Risk

Traditional geo-political analysis has a poor record. In particular it has problems in capturing the complex inter-relationships between key factors, and the positive and negative feedback loops which make prediction difficult if not impossible. This paper argues that new techniques, derived from complexity and network theory, offer powerful new tools for both analysis and strategic decision making. The paper focuses on fuzzy cogntive mapping. An illustrative example examines the prospects for disintegration in China. Although highly simplified, this example shows how this technique is able to derive conclusions difficult or impossible to achieve through traditional analysis, and its potential for strategic decision makers, whether in the private or public sector.     

Torture and Democratic Violence

Abstract.  To understand the problem of torture in a democratic society, we have to take up a political-theological perspective. We must ask how violence creates political meaning. Torture is no more destructive and no more illiberal than other forms of political violence. The turn away from torture was not a turn away from violence, but a change in the locus of sacrifice: from scaffold to battlefield. Torture had been a ritual of mediation between sovereign and subject. Once sovereignty is located in the people, it no longer makes sense to speak of being sacrificed for the sovereign. Instead, sovereign presence is now realized in an act of self-sacrifice. The wars of modern nation-states have been acts of reciprocal self-sacrifice. Terror invokes torture in response because both speak a primitive language of political sacrifice, denying the enemy the privilege of self-sacrifice.     

DO PARENTS MATTER IN CREATING SELF‐CONTROL IN THEIR CHILDREN? A GENETICALLY INFORMED TEST OF GOTTFREDSON AND HIRSCHI'S THEORY OF LOW SELF‐CONTROL*

Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime (1990) has generated an abundance of research testing the proposition that low self‐control is the main cause of crime and analogous behaviors. Less empirical work, however, has examined the factors that give rise to low self‐control. Gottfredson and Hirschi suggest that parents are the sole contributors for either fostering or thwarting low self‐control in their children, explicitly discounting the possibility that genetics may play a key role. Yet genetic research has shown that ADHD and other deficits in the frontostriatal system are highly heritable. Our research thus tests whether “parents matter” in creating low self‐control once genetic influences are taken into account. Using a sample of twin children we find that parenting measures have a weak and inconsistent effect. We address the conceptual and methodological issues associated with the failure to address genetic influences in parenting studies.     

NAZI GERMANY AND PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION 1933–42: THE MOST IMPORTANT LABORATORY FOR DEPRESSION AMERICA?

The inter‐war period saw a flowering of comparative research on emergency administration in response to the Great Depression. This article argues that Weimar and Nazi Germany was an important point of reference for scholars comparing different policy responses to the Great Depression. Centralization and administrative discretion were considered pivotal for effective crisis governance, irrespective of the political context. The resulting administrative ideology was ignorant of the polycratic realities of the Nazi state and frequently lauded its hierarchical features while condemning the Weimar Republic as anarchic. Faced with the challenge presented by Nazism, of squaring efficiency and accountability in the context of New Deal America, scholars of public administration developed ideas for training a new type of civil servant who was capable of acting beyond the control of legislative institutions. By exploring the ambiguous relationship between public administration and Nazism, this article highlights the complex issues confronting scholars of public administration in times of crisis.