Macroeconomic performance and government popularity in Britain: the short run dynamics

Abstract. Despite an extensive body of research on popularity function modelling there is little agreement about the magnitude and stability of effects. This is particularly true in the literature relating to Britain. The purpose of this paper is to specify and test a popularity function for Britain using the Box-Jenkins transfer function model building strategy. The model is estimated for the thirty-three year period between 1947 and 1980. This approach provides a particularly stringent test of causal links between the economy and political support. It demonstrates statistically significant links between unemployment, inflation and the devaluation of the currency, and the level of support for the incumbent party over the opposition party in the polls. However the links are not strong enough to provide an efficient forecasting model, and the effects are unstable over time. Generally the economic effects are related to the magnitude of unemployment and inflation.     

Interstate Competition and Welfare Policy

In 1996, the federal government terminated the Aid to Familieswith Dependent Children (AFDC) program and replaced it withthe Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program (TANF).Many powers once held by the federal government are now beingused by state governments. Will welfare assistance be redesignedand expanded or will states "race to the bottom?" This issueis investigated by examining state welfare policy choices duringthe latter years of AFDC(1976–1994). Because each stateunder AFDC had the authority to set the level of its welfareguarantee for families that had no income, it is possible toestimate the effects of interstate competition on AFDC guaranteelevels. By estimating a spatial autocorrelation coefficientwhile controlling for theoretically relevant variables and statefixed effects, this study finds evidence that states are sensitiveto the welfare policies of their competitors.     

B. reviews and notes: bibliographies and works of reference

WORLD SURVEY OF ISLAMIC MANUSCRIPTS. General editor: GEOFFREY ROPER. Volumes One and Two. London, Al‐Furqan Islamic Heritage Foundation, 1992–1993. 2 vols. Distributed by E.J. Brill, Leiden. Hfl. 250.‐ each vol.

MIDDLE EAST BIBLIOGRAPHY. By SANFORD R. SILVERBURG. (Scarecrow area bibliographies, no. 1.) Metuchen & London, Scarecrow Press, 1992. xxxi, 564 pp. US$69.50.

REPERTORIO BIBLIOGRÁFICO DE DERECHO ISLÁMICO (R.B.D.I.), Primera parte. By MARIA JESÚS CARNICERO, MARIBEL FIERRO, SUSANA PENA, DELFINA SERRANO, AMALIA ZOMENO‐ Madrid: Instituto de Coop‐eración con el Mundo Arabe, 1993. (Cuadernos de la Biblioteca Islámico ‘Félix María Pareja’, 55.) ix, 98pp.

THE JEWS IN IZMIR IN THE 19TH CENTURY: OTTOMAN DOCUMENTS FROM THE SHAR'I COURT. (YEHUDEY IZMIR BA‐ME'A HA‐TE?A’ ‘ESRE: TE'UDOT TURKIYYOT MIBBET HA‐DIN HA‐?AR'I). Edited by HAIM GER‐BER and JACOB BARNAI. Jerusalem, Misgav Yerushalayim, Institute for Research on the Sephardi and Oriental Jewish Heritage. 1984. vi, 114 pp.

WOMEN IN THE MUSLIM WORLD: A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF BOOKS AND ARTICLES PRIMARILY IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE. By HERBERT L. BOD‐MAN. Providence, Association for Middle East Women's Studies, 1991. v, 162pp. US$10.‐

NILE NOTES OF A HOWADJI: A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF TRAVELERS’ TALES FROM EGYPT, FROM THE EARLIEST TIME TO 1918. By MARTIN R. KALFATOVIC. Metuchen & London, Scarecrow Press, 1992. xxxvi, 427 pp. US$49.50.

THE WATERS OF THE NILE: AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY. By ROBERT O.COLLINS. London, Hans Zell, 1991. 315pp. £48.‐

DICTIONARY OF MANAGEMENT TERMS: ENGLISH‐FRENCH‐ARABIC. Compiled by JAMES COVENEY & SHEILA J. MOORE; Arabic terms edited by WAGDI RIZK GHALI & HANI G. TABRI. Beirut, Librairie du Liban, 1990. x, 109pp.

WHO'S WHO IN LEBANON 1993–1994. Twelfth edition (thoroughly revised and completed). Beirut, Publitec Publications; Munich, K.G.Saur, 1993. 482pp. £95.‐     

Popular culture and development: A case study

Communications and development in the broadest sense of the terms are examined in relation to evaluation of the work of the Communication Foundation for Asia (CFA). CFA produces, in conjunction with public and private development agencies, flip-charts, comics, a fieldworker's handbook for use in family planning education, sound cassette magazines for agricultural extension work, booklets and sound-slides on forming cooperatives, and other educational materials. CFA operates in the Philippines. A developmental radio drama produced by CFA delivered a pro-development message, one that tells people they can do something about their conditions/situations, compared to the passive, consumer-oriented commercial radio drama. The most prominent theme was achievement. The characters had complex motivations and displayed wide range of motives. Like other forms of propaganda, developmental radio drama is not welcomed by radio station owners. Not many people in the industry perceive the opportunity for increasing overall development and economic growth. All pressures from commercial radio are in consumerist directions while developmental drama encourages production.