Transnational organized crime and gun violence. A case for firearm forensic intelligence sharing

A threat to the safety of citizens in any country, the criminal misuse of firearms presents a wider danger to a nation's security, peace, stability and development. Firearms and their related evidence know no borders. It is not uncommon to find the murder weapon from a shooting in one city ending up in another city, country, or continent. No country remains unaffected by firearm violence. This paper describes how transnational organized crime and gun violence are interrelated, and makes the case for the international sharing of firearm forensic intelligence through Interpol's IBIN Program as an integral component of an intelligence-led policing strategy to combat cross-border gun related crime. With such a strategy in place, internationally mobile criminals who use firearms to further their illicit activities can no longer escape detection.     

Organizational [Dis]trust: Comparing Disengagement Among Former Left-Wing and Right-Wing Violent Extremists

In order to move beyond the existing push/pull framework to understand disengagement, we apply a systematic coding scheme derived from Mayer and colleagues' integrative model of organizational trust to examine why people leave extremist groups. In doing so, we also rely on in-depth life history interviews with twenty former left- and right-wing extremists to examine whether antecedents of distrust vary between the two groups. Findings suggest substantial similarities and important differences between left- and right-wing extremists' decision to leave. In particular, perceptions of poor planning and organization, low-quality personnel and vindictive behavior generate perceptions of organizational distrust and disillusionment. Although findings from the current study are based on a relatively small sample, notable similarities were identified between both groups regarding sources of distrust (e.g., leaders, group members). We also identified differences regarding the role of violence in weakening solidarity and nurturing disillusionment with extremist activities. We conclude this article with suggestions for future research that extend the study of terrorism and that may have significance for how practitioners address countering violent extremism initiatives.     

Beyond Boom and Bust: External Rents,Durable Authoritarianism,and Institutional Adaptation in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan

Drawing on recent critiques and advances in theories of the rentier state, this paper uses an in-depth case study of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan to posit a new “supply and demand” approach to the study of external rents and authoritarian durability. The Jordanian rentier state is not exclusively a product of external rents, particularly foreign aid, but also of the demands of a coalition encompassing groups with highly disparate economic policy preferences. The breadth of the Hashemite coalition requires that the regime dispense rent-fueled side payments to coalition members through constructing distributive institutions. Yet neither rent supply nor coalition demands are static. Assisted by geopolitically motivated donors, the Hashemites have adapted institutions over time to tap a diverse supply of rents that range from economic and military aid to protocol trade, allowing them to retain power through periods of late development, domestic political crisis, and neoliberal conditionality.

Book reviews

Improving the quality of public participation in council decision making continues to be a key goal of local government 'modernisation'. Different rationales for this have been advanced, including consumerist aims of service improvement, participation as an important value in itself, and participation as a survival strategy for local government. Based on surveys of, and interviews with, councillors and senior officers in Scottish local government, this article explores the ways in which concepts of 'consumerism' and 'citizenship' inform councils' approaches to public participation.     

A Variable-Centered and Person-Centered Evaluation of Emotion Regulation and Distress Tolerance: Links to Emotional and Behavioral Concerns

Distress tolerance and emotion regulation deficits are associated with many emotional and behavioral concerns and may be important deficit areas for college students especially during the transition to college. However, little is known about how distress tolerance and emotion regulation relate to each other or what typical profiles of these deficit areas might be. We took a variable-centered (i.e., exploratory factor analysis) and a person-centered approach (i.e., latent profile analysis) to identify the overlap and distinctiveness of distress tolerance and emotion regulation deficits and then evaluated how the profiles related to several emotional and behavioral concerns. Participants were undergraduates (N = 627; age M = 20.23, SD = 1.40; 60 % female; 47 % European-American) who completed an online assessment. The exploratory factor analysis of distress tolerance and emotion regulation subscales demonstrated three factors with one factor corresponding to distress tolerance and two factors defined by emotion regulation. Subscales demonstrated significant multidimensionality across the factors. The latent profile analysis with distress tolerance and emotion regulation subscales produced three profiles corresponding to “Functional”, “At Risk”, and “Challenged” levels of distress tolerance and emotion regulation abilities. Internalizing symptoms (i.e., depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and suicidal ideation) had significantly higher symptom severity in the “At Risk”, and “Challenged” profiles than in the “Functional” profile. ADHD symptoms and hostility showed a similar pattern. Conduct problems and substance use were much less related to the deficit profiles. Implications for the etiology of mental health, for prevention and treatment of college students are discussed.     

Rejection,Shaming, Enclosure,and Moving On: Variant Experiences and Meaning Among Loyalist Former Prisoners

This article unpacks the variant meanings, perceptions, and experiences of violent enactment and stigmatic shaming among loyalists with regard to rejection, harm, and masking. What we locate is a landscape of variable emotions, experiences, neutralization techniques, dependences, and embedded forms of fatalism as well as resilience. Attending to those alternate positions and well-beings is important in considering the capacity of re-integration and the presently uneven nature of it. In adopting an account-driven format we present and analyze how involvement in violent conflict can, on the one hand, provoke persistence and senses of transitional thinking and on the other engender rejection and related fatalistic attitudes.     

Optimal team and individual decision rules in uncertain dichotomous situations

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the optimalteam decision rules in uncertain, binary (dichotomous) choice situations. We show that the Relative (Receiver) Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve plays a pivotal role in characterizing these rules. Specifically, the problem of finding the optimal aggregation rule involves finding a set ofcoupled operating points on the individual ROCs. Introducing the concept of a team ROC curve, we extend the method of characterizing decision capabilities of an individual decisionmaker (DM) to a team of DMs. Given the operating points of the individual DMs on their ROC curves, we show that the best aggregation rule is a likelihood ratio test. When the individual opinions are conditionally independent, the aggregation rule is a weighted majority rule, but with different asymmetric weights for the yes and no decisions. We show that the widely studied weighted majority rule with symmetric weights is a special case of the asymmetric weighted majority rule, wherein the competence level of each DM corresponds to the intersection of the main diagonal and the DM's ROC curve. Finally, we demonstrate that the performance of the team can be improved by jointly optimizing the aggregation rule and the individual decision rules, the latter possibly requiring a shift from the isolated (non-team) optimal operating point of each DM.Research supported by NSF grant #IRI-8902755 and ONR contract #N0014-90-J-1753.     

Hate Crime: Record or Perception?

Public policing in Northern Ireland has gone through a process of reform and governance change in reaction to the peace process and the requirement to shift from a police force, largely engaged in conflict-centred policing, to a policing service dedicated to civil policing and normalisation. During the past decade, Northern Ireland has witnessed a significant decline in recorded sectarian crime. This decline in ethnic conflict has been accompanied by a growth in support for the police, especially within the Catholic community. However, information pertaining to support for public policing is determined at national level and we know little about how residents of sites of previously high levels of political and sectarian conflict feel about policing reform and delivery. In this paper we show that the perception of sectarian crime is much greater than recorded sectarian crime. Moreover, the perception of sectarian crime is a significant predictor of negative attitudes regarding police performance. The paper offers a unique quantitative insight into perceptions of sectarian crime and posits a predicament that is not discussed or debated with regard to the delivery of community policing. The evidence presented offers a benchmark upon which such a debate could occur. We argue that knowledge of sectarian hate crime should not be centred at the national level, but at the more discrete scale of neighbourhood. Perceptions, whether linked to reality, signal or prejudice, can at times destabilise the peace-building process, yet are rarely attended to or discussed. Knowing the difference between recorded and perceived crime as either sectarian exaggeration or actuality would aid localised police-community interaction. Here we provide a statistical basis to stimulate such enquiry.