Potentials for federation of East African educational programmes

Educational planning, in the modern sense of the term, goes back in Thailand no further than 1962, when the Second Economic and Social Development Plan (1962/66) was launched. The Second Plan included a plan for the educational system as did the Third Plan (1967/71) which is now drawing to a close. These two educational plans were based on a variety of methods, including those of making long‐term forecasts of manpower requirements. Between 1963 and 1967, five different groups prepared manpower forecasts for Thailand, some of which looked no further than 1970, while others projected manpower requirements up to 1968. In this paper we will try to assess the quality of these forecasts and, so far as it is possible, to cmmpare prediction with outcome.

The paper consists of four parts. We begin with a brief review of background data in order to highlight the problems of manpower forecasting in an economy such as that of Thailand. The second section is devoted to a detailed discussion of the first and most ambitious of the five forecasts that have been made in Thailand. This is followed by brief evaluations of the remaining four forecasts. In the fast section, we will consider the influence that these forecasts actually exerted on educational planning in Thailand.     

Risky business: Covering slow‐onset hazards as rapidly developing news

The emerging field of risk communication has yet to thoroughly grapple with how the mass media report risk. Through a content analysis of five newspapers noted for their science reporting, newspaper coverage of four environmental hazards is compared to media coverage of more traditional risky events. In general, these slow‐to‐develop stories are reported in much the same way as more traditional disaster stories. News accounts emphasized an event orientation, framed risks in terms of human activity rather than social and political contexts, described risk in terms of harms and benefits, and relied on traditional sources. The authors then explore how this version of mass‐mediated risk might change current definitions of risk communication and how a mediated construction of risk may influence public perception of the political choices these issues raise.     

Procyclical government spending: a public choice analysis

Procyclical government spending occurs when government expenditures increase at a faster rate than income in an economic upturn but fall at a faster rate in a recession. Voracity effects occur when competition for increased spending proves more effective as national income increases. Public choice theory can be applied to describe the distribution of fiscal power across different tiers of government to shed insight into competition for intergovernmental transfers. Politicians have electoral incentives to press for intergovernmental transfers but they also have electoral incentives to signal their ability to manage the economy. With this mix of incentives, the prediction is that intergovernmental transfers will be procyclical and that sub-central government spending will be more procyclical than central government spending. Public choice analysis of pressure for increased public spending predicts a specific pattern of cyclical government spending. This pattern can be observed when analyzing government expenditures in 20 OECD countries between 1995 and 2006.     

National Assessment by the National Security Council Staff 1968–80: An American Experiment in a British Style of Analysis?

At a time of intense debate over the specific organizational arrangements of American national security agencies with new or refocused intelligence responsibilities, the relative proximity between intelligence producers and consumers is a key issue. Intelligence capabilities may have to be kept separate from decision-making because of organizational economies of scale and scope, but separation alone does not mean intelligence must be distant from decision-making. For example, the British style of analysis involves a much closer relationship between intelligence producers and consumers than exists in the American context. Efforts to improve the integration of intelligence into decision-making by closing the distance between them would do well to study the history and efficacy of this process as they look to create new ways of structuring the relationship between intelligence analysis and decision-making. Specifically, history demonstrates that the US National Security Council staff implemented a process in 1968 through 1980 that approximated the British style of analysis, and this may provide US policymakers with a model for bridging the gap between intelligence analysis and decision-making.     

Intelligence scholarship as all‐source analysis: The case of Tom Bower's the perfect English Spy

Tom Bower, The Perfect English Spy: Sir Dick White and the Secret War 1935–90 (London: Heinemann, 1995). Pp.385, 24 photos, biblio., index. £16.99. ISBN 0–434–0080–9     

Catastrophe risk

This paper examines the recent emergence of initiatives involving the reinsurance industry and the capital markets to develop mechanisms to finance the losses arising from catastrophic events. These initiatives are discussed from two perspectives. One perspective explores these financing mechanisms from the contention that catastrophic events are becoming increasingly non-insurable within contemporary risk society. In this regard the paper addresses issues relating to the coherence and sustainability of the risk networks underpinning efforts to maintain the insurability of catastrophic events. These catastrophe-financing initiatives are also discussed from a second, although related perspective. This refers to the very emergence of these different financing mechanisms. In this regard the moving potential of liberal government or the inventive mechanics driving the development of different ways to manage catastrophic risk become significant. The paper argues that the emergence of these different catastrophe-financing mechanisms is occurring at the intersection of concerns over the non-insurability of the catastrophic and the extremes of capitalist ingenuity, suggesting both perspectives might offer insights into some of the possible future trajectories of risk society.     

On arbitration,arbitrage and arbitrariness in financial markets and their governance: unpacking LIBOR and the LIBOR scandal

Abstract

Amongst a series of scandals to hit international financial markets in recent years, that surrounding the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) – a highly influential interest rate benchmark – has attracted particularly intense media scrutiny. This paper seeks to push beyond conventional understandings to unpack critically both LIBOR itself and the scandal involving its manipulation by major international banks. Envisioning LIBOR as a commodity beset by inherent contradictions, the paper mobilizes the tropes of arbitration, arbitrage and arbitrariness to illuminate, respectively: the market-making work performed by LIBOR; its role in enabling the transfer of financial risk, most notably when fraudulently manipulated; and the nature of the regulatory prosecution of such manipulation.     

Kennedy and Touré: A Success in Personal Diplomacy

Entering the White House at the crest of the African independence movement, John F. Kennedy and many of his advisors believed that Africa had surpassed Asia as the most permeable battlefield in the East–West Cold War struggle. While the battle lines of the Cold War had already been clearly drawn in Europe and in much of Asia, newly independent Africa was wide open for superpower competition. The central component of Kennedy's approach to dealing with Africa was his use of personal diplomacy with the leaders of that continent. This article is a case study of Kennedy's first successful use of personal diplomacy with an African head of State—Guinea's Sékou Touré.     

Transformational change using stratified systems theory

It is argued that leaders and other change agents will be able to transform organizations and the members of organizations only if they possess compelling explanatory frameworks for viewing organizational behavior, structure and dynamics. To illustrate this point, the stratified systems theory of Elliott Jaques is presented in the context of an organizational intervention. The “vision” promoted by stratified systems theory enabled an outside consultant to transform the leadership of an ailing social services agency and was useful in explaining the inability of the organization's administrator and board of directors to act transformationally during a period of rapid change     

Public service as a calling: an exploration of a concept. part II

This paper chronicles the work of Josephine Goldmark, a social activist of the early 20th century. Special attention is given to her contributions in the areas of the reduction of work days, reform of laws for working women, reform of child labor laws, the alleviation of fatigue, and nursing school improvements. Her efforts had lasting effects in each of these areas. Throughout, Goldmark's dedication to thorough preparation is a consistent theme.