Parallel event sequences in international crises

This study presents a theory of foreign policy decision-making based on event structures that would account for the ability of foreign policy experts to make short-term predictions in the presence of incomplete information and noise. An algorithm is devised that constructs subsequences of events that occur in international crises coded in the Behavioral Correlates of War (BCOW) data set. Four subsets of BCOW crises are considered: nonwar crises, pre-World War I wars, post-World War I wars, and a mixture of nonwar and war crises. About six common subsequences are found in each of the sets; these cover about 35% of the events in the crisis sequences after the sequences have been filtered on the basis of novelty. The subsequences differ substantially between the subsets of crises and exhibit a degree of internal consistency. The subsequences also can be used to differentiate between nonwar and war crises by using the fit of each subsequence to construct a vector characterizing the crisis, then clustering on the basis of those vectors.     

An analysis of ritualistic and religion-related child abuse allegations

A stratified random sample survey of clinical members of the American Psychological Association was conducted to determine the number and nature of cases involving alleged ritualistic and religion-related child abuse, whether reported directly by children or retrospectively by adults. Results indicated that only a minority of clinical psychologists have encountered ritual cases, but of those, the vast majority believe their clients' claims. Even so, the purported evidence for the allegations, especially in cases reported by adults claining to have suffered the abuse during childhood, is questionable. Most clients who allege ritual abuse are diagnosed as having multiple personality disorder or post-traumatic stress disorder, two increasingly popular, but controversial, psychological diagnoses.Clinical and legal implications are discussed and a future research agenda is urged.     

State and Local Prevalence of Firearms Ownership Measurement, Structure, and Trends

Of the readily computed proxies for the prevalence of gun ownership, one, the percentage of suicides committed with a gun, is most highly correlated with survey-based estimates. It is the best choice for use in cross-section analysis of the effect of gun prevalence on crime patterns across states and larger counties.Analysis of this proxy measure for the period 1979–1997 demonstrates that the geographic structure of gun ownership has been highly stable. That structure is closely linked to rural tradition. There is, however, some tendency toward homogenization over this period, with high-prevalence states trending down and low-prevalence states trending up.     

Programme and Project Cycle Management (PPCM): Lessons from South and North

This paper documents the lessons drawn from several years of practical work with a range of Programme and Project Cycle Management (PPCM) processes and tools. The need for PPCM training, and not simply Logical Framework training, is emphasised, as is the importance of using an experiential training methodology. Institutional ownership of both PPCM tools and approaches are considered to be vital for success. Since so many donors now use PPCM tools, the need for development professionals to have PPCM skills and knowledge is paramount. The value of logframes as a tool to both increase programme/project ownership and communication is highlighted. The importance of thinking outside the boxes of the logframe at the project/programme review stage is also emphasised.