Forecasting the number of social security retirees: Improving forecasts for better policy making

There is evidence that past and current forecasts by the Social Security Administration (SSA) substantially underestimate future U.S. Populations of age 65 and older. The policy significance of this can be seen in the forecasts by other researchers that predict outlays of $30 to $50 billion more for Social Security retirees in the year 2000 than projected by the SSA. Clearly, we need an improved 15-to 20-year forecast of the aged—one that combines the use of time-series forecasting methods and expert opinions on future mortality trends. This forecast would supplement SSA's current long-term (75-year) actuarial projections and provide policy makers with improved information for monitoring Social Security and other programs for the aged. This article recommends that independent advisory groups be established to provide SSA with advice to support development of this shorter-term forecast.     

Selling the Public on Sustainable Watershed Conservation

Abstract:  The city of Quito, Ecuador, began working in 2000 to protect the ecologically fragile watershed area for its drinking water. In order to protect the Papallacta watershed, the independent Fund for the Conservation of Watersheds (FONAG) was launched to finance and manage economically sound sustainability projects in the area. FONAG is funded in part through start up grants from several organisations and a 1 per cent fee on all Quito water bills, but it has been unable to build an endowment sizeable enough to begin implementing conservation projects. We measure perceptions of the fund among Quito's university–based residents in two settings and evaluate the quality of the fund's proposed communication campaign based on existing communication theory. Further, we propose an adapted environmental education model based on a synthesis of existing theory and the empirical findings from our examination of the FONAG example. The Papallacta case study illuminates the potential strengths and weaknesses of the cultural ecology and political will of this type of collaborative sustainability project for addressing water problems in a developing country in a mountainous setting, centred around the themes of water conservation and sustainable development.     

Singapore and the myth of the liberalizing middle class

Fiji: Coups in Paradise: Race, Politics and Military Intervention, by Victor Lal. Zed Books, London and New Jersey, 1990. xv + 268 pp., maps. £32.95 hardback, £10.95 paperback. ISBN 0–86232–776–8 and 0–86232–777–6.

A Fragile Paradise, by Andrew Mitchell. Fontana, London, 1990. 256 pp., colour plates, maps. £9.99 paperback. ISBN 0–00–637655‐X.

Overreaching in Paradise: United States Policy in Palau since 1945, by Sue Rabbitt Roff. Denali Press, Juneau, Alaska, 1991. ix + 244 pp., maps. $27.50. ISBN 0–938737–22–8.     

The Structure of Negotiation: Lessons from El Salvador for Contemporary Conflict Resolution

During more than a decade of violent conflict (1980–1992) involving the military, rebel forces, and paramilitary "death squads," El Salvador suffered some 75,000 casualties, mostly civilians. After three years of negotiations, the government and the largest rebel group signed a historic comprehensive peace accord that brought an end to the war and instituted wide-reaching political and social reforms. This agreement, and the peace process that produced it, has been widely hailed as a successful example of a negotiated end to civil war. In order to understand the conditions that led to the 1992 Chapultepec Peace Accords ending the war, this article tests ripeness theory in the context of the Salvadoran peace process.
This article affirms the validity of theories of ripeness and the mutually hurting stalemate as structural explanations for the initiation of dialogue and notes the role of "indicators of ripeness" in forcing the parties to recognize a hurting stalemate that may already exist. It also proposes several hypothesized explanations for the effectiveness of the Salvadoran negotiations themselves. These explanations include the presence of strong, empowered policy entrepreneurs on both sides with the political will and capability to make credible commitments; the combination of internal and external pressure for a negotiated solution that raised the cost of defection; and the active involvement, based on consent of both parties, of a neutral, empowered, and credible mediator who provided both technical assistance and vigilance to move the process forward. After analyzing the Salvadoran case through this theoretical lens, the article applies the same concepts to contemporary conflict cases such as Iraq and Colombia, discussing how the lessons learned in El Salvador do and do not provide instructive guidance for managing civil conflicts today.     

Training transformational leaders: a call for practicing empowerment in the classroom

This article is based on the premise that organizations are in dire need of transformational leaders who will imbue them with the values and practices necessary to survive and grow in the 21st century. Unfortunately, our educational system is not doing very much to prepare our students to successfully perform this transformational role. We suggest that the reason for this deficiency lies in the fact that too many faculty practice traditional bureaucratic pedagogies which neither models nor develops the values and skills students need to become transformational leaders. Furthermore, the extensive use of these practices serves to limit student involvement in the teaching-learning process and decreases student motivation to perform high quality work. Therefore, this article will discuss how faculty can model transformational leadership by empowering their students. We have found that this approach creates stimulating classes which increase student feelings of ownership, self-efficacy, and motivation. Moreover this experience helps prepare students to be the transformational leaders our world so desperately needs.     

South Pacific prospects

Aborigines in the Defence of Australia, edited by Desmond Ball. Australian National University Press, Botany NSW, 1991. xxii + 240 pp. ISBN 0–08–034419–4.

The South Pacific: Problems, Issues and Prospects, edited by Ramesh Thakur. Macmillan, Basingstoke, 1991. xvii + 232 pp. £35. ISBN 0–333–55704–2;

Tuturani: A Political Journey in the Pacific Islands, by Scott L. Malcolmson. Hamish Hamilton, London, 1991. 267 pp. £15.99 ($27.70). ISBN 0–241–12905–2.