Reliability of the preliminary results of the Eleventh Census of Population and Housing of 1990

The author assesses the reliability of the eleventh general population and housing census conducted in Mexico in March 1990. An undercount of as many as two million persons is estimated. (SUMMARY IN ENG)     

趁早逮住内心正在滚动的雪球

虚假友情使我们贪图荣誉，追逐知识、财富以及珍爱毫无节制的东西，像我们肢体一般的东西，也非追逐奢侈享乐的不得体的友谊，这样的友谊像常春藤常见的情况，不会腐蚀并摧毁它     

中国证据法改革者面临的选择—— 从《联邦证据规则》与《加州证据法典》之对比中获得的启示

美国《联邦证据规则》作为英美成文证据法的典范,常常受到我国学者的青睐.但该规则并非可资借鉴的唯一美国模式.生效于1967年的《加州证据法典》被普遍认为在对普通法规则的修正方面获得了成功.其影响不仅限于加州地区,而且美国《联邦证据规则》中许多条款都曾以《加州证据法典》中的相应规定为范本.但在许多情况下,《加州证据法典》与《联邦联邦规则》在调整同一问题的规定之间也存在着明显的差异,它们体现了起草者不同的政策选择.理解这些差异有助于中国证据法改革者做出最契合本国文化和法律价值观的证据性选择.     

美国法律视域中的枪支和暴力问题

枪支持有和使用是美国刑事政策领域和宪法领域的重要问题。最近两起涉枪事件也说明了持枪数和普遍性有所区别,以及家中和公共场所内的私人持枪权的区分。在历史上,美国对于枪支的管制一直存在,本质上就是公共案件和个人权益的平衡问题。最近几年,法院的判例为政府管制枪支提出了新的要求。     

中东研究缘何错失阿拉伯之春

美国佛蒙特大学政治学教授、中东问题专家格里高利·高斯三世(F.Gregory GauseⅢ)在美刊《外交事务》2011年第4期以《中东研究缘何错失阿拉伯之春:威权主义稳定性的神话》为题撰文指出,美国学者夸大了阿拉伯威权主义政权的稳定性。作者认为,在一些阿拉伯国家,政权与军队不只是同盟的关系,后者在一定情况下会成为前者的异己力量;经济自由化改革所产生的贫困、分化、腐败,以及中产阶级的民主要求,共同削弱了阿拉伯威权主义的社会基础;     

Managing Power Transitions: Towards a 21st Century Concert of Powers

Power shifts and especially power transitions in the international system are often associated with (military) confl ict. Power Transition Theory (PTT) does offer an analysis of this phenomenon but no remedy. We suggest easing the tensions related to ongoing worldwide power shifts by introducing a new informal multilateral security governance institution, based on the idea of a concert of powers. The historical European Concert of the 19th century prevented the outbreak of great power wars for more than a generation by providing a cooperation framework, based on shared norms and common procedures. In this article we explore the possibility of utilizing a modernized concert of powers as a framework for managing the coming power shifts. In order to do so, we introduce two new elements in Power Transition Theory: (1) the importance of the (dis) satisfaction of the declining hegemon with the anticipated future order, and (2) a broader multilateral framework of major powers that overcomes the Power Transition Theory’s traditional bilateral “duel” situation. On this basis, institutionalized power transition management becomes possible. We then work out the norms, strengths and weaknesses of the historical concert and update it with a few new features that would be necessary for it to be successful in the 21st century.