Political institutions and debt crises

This paper shows that political institutions matter in explaining defaults on external and domestic debt obligations. We explore a large number of political and macroeconomic variables using a non-parametric technique to predict safety from default. The advantage of this technique is that it is able to identify patterns in the data that are not captured in standard probit analysis. We find that political factors matter, and do so in different ways for democratic and non-democratic regimes, and for domestic and external debt. In democracies, a parliamentary system or sufficient checks and balances almost guarantee the absence of default on external debt when economic fundamentals or liquidity are sufficiently strong. In dictatorships, high stability and tenure play a similar role for default on domestic debt.     

Support for the environment post-transition? Material concerns and policy tradeoffs

Though many individuals are aware of the need to address environmental concerns, fewer are willing to pay for climate action or think the environment should be a priority for government spending. One compelling reason is that they prioritize using scarce resources to address immediate material concerns. This is particularly likely for individuals facing absolute material scarcity or for those who think they are relatively economically worse off, especially in contexts characterized by rapid transformation and volatility in the levels and quality of social welfare provision. To test these expectations, we analyze survey data from formerly Communist economies, which today find themselves with vastly different fortunes. Empirical findings suggest that absolute and relative material scarcity affect opinions regarding government spending on, and the willingness to pay more for, environmental action. However, willingness to pay more for government public services, inclusive of anti-poverty initiatives, has an impact on willingness to pay more for climate action, but in counter-intuitive ways. Overall, the results appear to suggest that explicitly addressing and relating individual living standards and inequality with environmental concerns may expand support for climate action.     

Entre cohérence et efficacité: la Suisse dans les négociations bilatérales avec l'Union Européenne

Comment conduire la politique extérieure suisse? Cet article s'intéresse aux négociations bilatérales entre la Suisse et l'Union européenne et cherche à évaluer la “cohérence” et “l'efficacité” des choix stratégiques du gouvernement suisse. A l'aide d'un cadre d'analyse incorporant des outils de la théorie des jeux, nous examinons les options et stratégies mises en oeuvre par le Conseil fédéral afin de concilier contraintes internes et contraintes internationales – ce que nous nommons la “cohérence” – ainsi que les liens entre cette recherche de cohérence et la capacité du Conseil fédéral à conclure un accord avec l'UE – ce que nous nommons “l'efficacité”. Nous nous concentrons sur les deux volets les plus sensibles des négociations bilatérales: les transports terrestres et la libre‐circulation des personnes. Dans le cadre des contraintes internes existantes, la difficulté première du Conseil fédéral a consisté à trouver une cohérence d'action basée sur des perceptions réalistes de la situation externe. Face à cette difficulté, le Conseil fédéral a globalement fait preuve d'habileté stratégique, en particulier dans le cas des transports terrestres. Dans ce cas, sa redéfinition de l'espace de négociation a permis de surmonter le dilemme existant entre cohérence et efficacité.     

The Transformative Impact of Unarmed Civilian Peacekeeping

ABSTRACT

Civilians, working together, and using non-violence to protect themselves and others from direct violence, challenges widespread assumptions that peace and protection can only be delivered by the military and with the threat of force. Unarmed Civilian Peacekeeping (UCP), with 35 years of evidence from projects worldwide, demonstrates that the assumption that an armed actor will not yield to anything except a weapon is false, therefore, challenging the exclusive role of military in peacekeeping. This paper explores (i) by conceptualising UCP as part of peacekeeping new insights into the approaches and mechanisms for preventing violence are revealed, (ii) the transformative capacity of UCP though the relationship with nonviolence theory. Using evidence from the practice of UCP from the organisations involved (including Peace Brigades International and Nonviolent Peaceforce) this paper sets out how we can create different approaches to peacekeeping.     

Mock-juror reactions to multiple interview presentation and rapport-building

ABSTRACT

In the UK and some US states, video-recorded investigative interviews of child victims/witnesses can be presented in court as the child’s evidence-in-chief. However, there is scarce advice or research on the effect that presenting different sections of the interviews may have on juror perceptions of the child’s testimony. Two aspects of testimony presentation are examined here: first, whether to show the rapport-building phase of the interview, and second, the presentation of multiple interviews (i.e. more than one interview with the same child). Participants (n?=?103) informed they were watching two interviews of the same child separated by a week had more positive perceptions of the child’s testimony than those informed they were watching just one extended interview with a ten-minute break. Also, those watching the rapport-building phase had less positive perceptions of the child’s testimony than those who did not watch this phase. Participants’ perceptions of the interviewer and their case progression decisions were mainly not related to the above presentational differences. Thus, (i) mock-jurors were not inherently biased against multiple interviews and (ii) decisions regarding whether or not to show the rapport-building phase in court may have significant effects on jurors’ perceptions of the child and their testimony.     

The Changing Relationship Between Housing and Inequality, 1980–2010

Inequality in both income and wealth has grown rapidly in the United States since the 1970s. Over the same period, homeownership rates increased in step with expansionist government policies and the development of subprime and other exotic loan products, and housing affordability challenges emerged as the most prevalent housing problem for owners and renters alike. The subprime lending and foreclosure crises of the 2000s stretched households financially, threatening the traditional economic benefits of homeownership, bringing into stark relief the ways in which housing and inequality mutually influence one another, and implicating homeownership, housing affordability, and subprime lending in the widening gap between the rich and the poor. This article examines the changing roles of homeownership, housing affordability, and subprime lending in contemporary U.S. inequality by, first, describing trends in county inequality and housing characteristics and, second, modeling inequality as a function of the previous decade's housing characteristics over the period of 1980–2010. We build upon past models of county inequality by more explicitly considering causal order, place characteristics, and state and regional fixed effects. The results confirm that homeownership, affordability, and subprime lending not only reflect existing inequalities but also perpetuate those inequalities over time. Homeownership promotes equality, affordability problems undermine it, and subprime lending has the potential to ameliorate inequality in certain contexts, but these effects shift significantly over time, particularly as a result of widespread foreclosures and economic recession. Our analysis establishes the importance of housing in explaining contemporary inequality, highlights how place characteristics and causal ordering may improve county inequality models, and provides a foundation for future studies examining inequality in light of the Great Recession and the foreclosure crisis.     

Taxing Fracking: The Politics of State Severance Taxes in the Shale Era

States producing gas and oil have long levied severance taxes at the point of extraction, commonly placing most revenues into general funds. These taxes have assumed new meaning in many states amid the expansion of gas and oil production accompanying the advent of hydraulic fracturing. We reviewed all major statutes and constitutional amendments related to severance taxes that were enacted at the state level during the first decade of the “shale era” (2005–14). There have been only modest adjustments in statutory tax rates and some evidence that states have attempted to reduce these rates, possibly in response to growing national production. In turn, there is also evidence that states have begun to pursue more targeted strategies for revenue use, including some expanded focus on responding to the negative externalities linked to drilling, expanded revenue sharing with localities, and increased long‐term protection of resources through state trust funds.     

Intimate partner violence among pregnant and parenting Latina adolescents

The purpose of this study was to examine the nature and extent of mutual violence among a sample of pregnant and parenting Latina adolescent females and their partners. The sample consisted of 73 Latina adolescent females between the ages of 14 and 20 who were referred to a community-based organization for case management, education, and psychosocial support for pregnant and parenting adolescents. They completed the Conflict Tactics Scale (CTS-2) as part of a pretest to evaluate this intervention program. A small number (12 out of 73; 16%) reported no use of aggressive conflict tactics. Eighty-four percent (61 out of 73) of the study respondents reported using at least one form of minor psychological aggression and 62% (45 out of 73) reported using at least one form of minor physical assault over the past 6 months. Mutuality of conflict was high, especially in cases of minor assault by partner. There was no difference in severity or chronicity of conflict between those who were pregnant and those who were not. Female respondents reported that they and their partners engaged in comparable levels of sexual coercion. Discussion of the context of psychological, physical, and sexual aggression in adolescent relationships suggests alternative approaches to prevention of intimate partner violence among adolescents.