Assessing Stability and Change in Criminal Offending: A Comparison of Random Effects, Semiparametric, and Fixed Effects Modeling Strategies

An important theoretical problem for criminologists is an explanation forthe robust positive correlation between prior and future criminaloffending. Nagin and Paternoster (1991) have suggested that the correlationcould be due to time-stable population differences in the underlyingproneness to commit crimes (population heterogeneity) and/or thecriminogenic effect that crime has on social bonds, conventionalattachments, and the like (state dependence). Because of data andmeasurement limitations, the disentangling of population heterogeneityand state dependence requires that researchers control for unmeasuredpersistent heterogeneity. Frequently, random effects probit models havebeen employed, which, while user-friendly, make a strong parametricassumption that the unobserved heterogeneity in the population follows anormal distribution. Although semiparametric alternatives to the randomeffects probit model have recently appeared in the literature to avoid thisproblem, in this paper we return to reconsider the fully parametric model. Viasimulation evidence, we first show that the random effects probit modelproduces biased estimates as the departure of heterogeneity from normalitybecomes more substantial. Using the 1958 Philadelphia cohort data, we thencompare the results from a random effects probit model with a semiparametricprobit model and a fixed effects logit model that makes no assumptions aboutthe distribution of unobserved heterogeneity. We found that with this dataset all three models converged on the same substantive result—evenafter controlling for unobserved persistent heterogeneity, with models thattreat the unobserved heterogeneity very differently, prior conduct had apronounced effect on subsequent offending. These results are inconsistentwith a model that attributes all of the positive correlation between priorand future offending to differences in criminal propensity. Sinceresearchers will often be completely blind with respect to the tenabilityof the normality assumption, we conclude that different estimationstrategies should be brought to bear on the data.     

Directors' duty of care to monitor information systems in HMOs: some lessons from the Oxford Health Plan

This paper examines the legal and strategic issues raised by the use of information systems in health maintenance organizations (HMOs) and other managed care organizations. Given the critical nature of information systems to an HMO's business success and regulatory compliance, the large financial investment HMOs make in their systems, and the widely publicized concerns over the year 2000 "millennium bug" problem, information systems are appropriately a matter of concern to an HMO's board of directors. The recent experience of Oxford Health Plans, Inc. offers a case study in the apparent failure of the directors to monitor adequately the in-house development of an information system. The systems disaster which this corporation suffered in 1997 led to a dramatic drop in stock price, from which the company has yet to recover, as well as intense scrutiny by state and federal regulators and countless shareholder derivative actions against the directors. Corporate directors are subject to the fiduciary duty of care. Despite statutes in some states requiring directors to act prudently, state courts almost always apply the standard of gross negligence. As a result, even when directors act without due deliberation in their decision, it is rare that a court will find them to have failed in their duty of care. The business and regulatory community may find otherwise, however, when directors fail to evaluate information systems options carefully and the business suffers as a result.     

Reforming rural Ontario

Abstract: This paper turns the scholarly spotlight onto an overlooked aspect of the Ontario municipal system by exploring the issue of county government reform in four selected communities in southern Ontario. Various proposals for county government reform have been advanced by the provincial government during the last quarter-century; here we consider the “common sense” approach to municipal government reform adopted by the Harris government after its election in 1995. We analyse how four counties have responded to this concerted and forceful attempt to bring about major county restructuring. The study has two major objectives. First, it illustrates the forces that have at once advanced and constrained county government reform in recent years; second, it attempts to explain major differences in the manner in which individual counties have responded to the Harris government's drive for reform. Finally, the paper concludes with some reflections on the viability of rural government in Ontario in the light of the substance and process of county government reform. Sommaire: Cet article examine un aspect négligé du système municipal ontarien en explorant la question de la réforme des gouvernements de comté dans quatre communautés choisies du sud de l'Ontario. Le gouvernement provincial a fait diverses propositions de réforme du gouvemement de comté au cours du demier quart de siècle; ici, nous examinons l'approche basée sur le « ban sens » adoptée par le gouvernement Harris en ce qui concerne les gouvernements municipaux, après son élection en 1995, et nous analysons la manière dont quatre comtés ont réagi à cette tentative concertée et vigoureuse de déclencher une forte restructuration au niveau du comté. Cette étude a deux grands objectifs. Premièrement, elle illustre les forces qui ont à la fois promu et retenu la réforme des gouvernements de comté au cours de ces dernières annèes; deuxièmement, elle essaie d'expliquer les principaux écarts dans la façon dont chaque comté a réagi aux efforts de réforme du gouvemement Harris. Enfin, I'article offer quelques réflexions sur la viabilité du gouvernement rural en Ontario à la lumière du fond et du processus de réforme des gouvernements de comté.     

Industry, occupation, and disability insurance beneficiary work return.

This article uses the New Beneficiary Data System to describe the first job held after award of Disability Insurance benefits, in terms of occupation and industry. It examines work activity within sectors of employment, and looks at the issues of whether work return in certain industries and occupations varies according to the demographic characteristics of the beneficiaries. The article also presents data on sector-specific employer accommodations that can aid in sustained work return. Postentitlement work was fairly evenly distributed across occupational and industrial sectors. Persons with higher levels of educational attainment were found to be in white-collar employment sectors. There were noticeable differences in the availability of employer accommodations across postentitlement occupations and industries.     

Why do people vote? An experiment in rationality

The study presents the findings of an experiment conducted during the 1993 Canadian fedeal election campaign. Students in two universities were exposed to a ten-minute presentation about the rational model of voting and the ‘paradox’ that so many people vote when it is apparently irrational on a cost-benefit basis. Our data indicate that exposure to the presentation decreased turnout in the election by seven percentage points. This result contributes to the debate abut the effect of rational-choice models on real political behavior. More important, the experimental panel data permit the presentation's effect to be decomposed, and this helps explain why people do vote. In this study, turnout was reduced mainly because the presentation diminished the respondents' sense of duty, an effect that was indirect, because there was no reference in the presentation to such motives. Framing the voting act in rational-choice terms induced some students to reconsider whether they should feel obliged to vote.     

The Europeanization of National Administrations: A Comparative Study of France and the Netherlands

Studies of the impact of European integration on the national administrations of the member states of the European Union (EU) have pointed towards an uneven process of "Europeanization." While there has unquestionably been a growing range and frequency of contacts between national administrations and the EU system, there is little evidence of an expected convergence towards a common institutional model. This uneven Europeanization is presently explained with reference to a neo-institutionalist framework, drawing primarily on the work of March and Olsen. It is argued that the politico-administrative systems of the member states differentially adapt to the pressures of European integration in a manner which reflects the preexisting balance of domestic institutionnal structures, as well as th broader matrices of values which define the nature of appropriate political forms in the case of each national polity. Distinctive national patterns of institutional adjustment, rather than appearing anomalous, emerge as corresponding to a basic logic of differentiation indissociable from the integration process itself. The general argument is illustrated by an extended comparative study of France and the Netherlands, examining both the making and the implementation of European policy in the two countries.