A Tale of Two Margins: Exploring the Probabilistic Processes that Generate Prison Visits in the First Two Years of Incarceration

Objective

The study extends previous literature (Cochran in J Crim Justice 40:433–440, 2012, J Res Crime Delinq 51(2):200–229, 2014) by simultaneously examining two margins: the probability of receiving a visit and the number of visits a prisoner receives conditional on receiving any visits; adding a level of nuance to the exploration of prison visits.

Methods

A random sample of New York State prisoners admitted between 2000 and 2013 who served at least 24 months and had basic admission, release, and transfer data (N = 22,975) were selected. Visit patterns were derived using group-based trajectory models with a zero-inflated Poisson specification and up to a cubic polynomial on probability and count parameters.

Results

The best fitting model had seven groups that displayed wide variation in the probability of a visit (in both directions). By contrast, the number of visits, conditional on receiving a visit, is relatively constant over time. Subsequent dual trajectory modeling of prison visits with distance from home county demonstrates that the dynamic patterns of probability of visit correspond with dynamic patterns of distance from home county.

Conclusion

We demonstrate that time variation in visitation occurs along the prevalence margin. Researchers interested in studying the longitudinal relationship between visits and outcomes should be attentive to this result. Additionally, characteristics of prisoners assigned to the trajectory groups using Posterior Probabilities of Assignment suggest that pre-prison factors (i.e. criminal record) and in-prison policy decisions (i.e. custody level) are associated with particular patterns of visits over time; highlighting the challenge to understanding the effect of visitation in studies without explicit causal identification strategies.

     

Beyond Traumatic Brain Injury: Advancing Forensic Neuropsychological Assessment

As research on the cognitive impact of medical conditions and mental health disorders advances, it is imperative for forensic neuropsychologists to stay abreast of rapidly accumulating new empirical evidence from neuroscience and neuropsychology to disentangle multiple determinants of cognitive impairment. Although medicolegal neuropsychological assessments traditionally focused on traumatic brain injury (TBI) sequelae, it is equally important to consider the potential impact of any other acquired, or secondarily induced brain impairments, regardless of their source. Such injuries or conditions are at times assumed to cause a lesser cognitive impact than TBIs; however, their effects depend entirely on the factor in question. Injuries and illnesses implicated in civil litigation—and eventually affecting competency—can indeed involve TBI, but also anoxic/hypoxic injuries, pain, depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), sensory deficits (e.g., tinnitus), and fatigue, and all, in turn, can affect an individual’s cognitive function and quality of life. Impairments caused by these conditions can be disabling and resistant to treatment, particularly, when the treatment is based on incorrect diagnostic, prognostic, and causality assumptions.     

Anoxia-Hypoxia in Forensic Neuropsychological Assessment: Cognitive Impact of Pulmonary Injuries,Respiratory Distress,Cerebral Blood Hypoperfusion,and Major Surgeries

Pulmonary injuries, respiratory distress, blood loss-related cerebral blood perfusion, and major surgeries are common features of medical histories in forensic neuropsychological assessments. Unless the explicit reason for referral is determination of the cognitive impact of one of these adverse medical conditions, their contribution to neuropsychological causality determination can be overlooked, minimized, or misattributed to other causes. Given the underlying common denominator among these conditions, that is, sub-optimal oxygen delivery to the brain, transient or long-term debilitating injuries causing neuropsychological change of various degrees can result. A thorough understanding of the impact of these medical events is paramount in forensic neuropsychological assessment for diagnosis, causality, and functional impact determination, prognosis, rehabilitation, and recommendations. In this paper, we critically review the available empirical evidence regarding anoxia and hypoxia arising from pulmonary injuries and respiratory distress, cerebral blood hypoperfusion, and major surgeries, together with evidence of their impact on cognitive functioning. Medical and psychological electronic search engines [PubMed, PsycINFO, and Google Scholar (up to January 2018)] have been screened for neuroscience-related and neuropsychological literature pertaining to pulmonary injuries and respiratory distress, cerebral blood perfusion, and major surgeries, and subsequently optimized for the issue under review.     

A Life Table Approach to Estimating Disproportionate Minority Contact in the Juvenile Justice System

Disproportionate minority contact (DMC) in the U.S. juvenile justice system persists despite substantial efforts to reduce it. The juvenile justice system is comprised of a series of interconnected stages, yet few studies to-date use methods to measure DMC that take the cascading nature of the decision-making process into account. Our study addresses this gap by applying life table analysis to identify the cumulative nature of DMC across multiple stages of the juvenile justice system using data from 2008 to 2010 in Georgia that include white, black, and Hispanic/Latino youth. We then compare these state-level results to life tables from a national sample of black youth and a subnational sample of Hispanic/Latino youth. Our findings show that arrest/referral accounts for the greatest proportion of total system-wide DMC for black youth, but most of the total DMC for Hispanic/Latino youth results from later stages.     

Truancy Intervention Reduces Crime: Results from a Randomized Field Trial

Educational attainment is a fundamental cornerstone to success throughout the life-course. As a result, ensuring that young people remain in school and are not truant is critical. Although the importance of truancy as a risk factor for many adverse outcomes, including crime, has been well-documented, much less methodologically rigorous work has been undertaken to evaluate potentially promising prevention and intervention strategies. This paper uses a randomized field trial method to test how a partnership between police and schools targeting truancy impacts offending in a sample of high-risk truanting young people. We find that the truancy intervention reduces offending and we discuss the implications for practice and directions for future research.     

Conflict dynamics and agonistic dialogue on historical violence: a case from Indonesia

This article contends that the type of high-level political consensus needed to reach a peace agreement is often insufficient for rebuilding and transforming wider social relations. Consensus-focused processes tend to suppress divergent views and experiences of conflict, particularly among grassroots conflict actors, and risk deepening social divides by homogenising diverse memories of past violence, with potentially dangerous consequences. In response to these concerns this article advances an understanding of agonistic dialogue and explores an example of such dialogue in communal conflict in Indonesia. Building on an understanding of effective dialogue as sustained, intensive and relational, this article also underscores the need for effective dialogue to have politico-institutional support and to be locally driven and owned by actors who are legitimate and trusted in the eyes of conflict protagonists.     

Bridging the Gap Between Prosecutors' Cases and Victims' Biographies in the Criminal Justice System Through Shared Emotions

Research on victims' encounters with prosecutors suggests that victims' rights have had a limited effect on victims' satisfaction with the criminal justice system. This study examines the victim‐prosecutor relationship with a focus on people who have lost a loved one to murder. The emotional tone dimension of Carol Heimer's case versus biography analysis proves helpful for explaining the gaps between prosecutors' responsibilities and victims' expectations. The data come from in‐depth interviews with thirty‐five participants, including twenty victims, three crime victims' advocates, and twelve criminal court professionals in Union County (pseudonym). The findings indicate that shared emotions (e.g., sadness, anger) represent a key mechanism for (1) connecting victims to prosecutors (and individuals to organizations) and (2) improving victims' experiences with the criminal justice system. Although victims' rights do not guarantee the opportunity for shared emotions, prosecutors often honored victims' desire for a close relationship and considered their input on case decisions.     

Strategic Behaviour in Parliament

Most research on roll call votes considers each voting decision by members of parliament (MPs) as an independent observation. Only recently have scholars (for example, Clinton, 2012, American Journal of Political Science, 56, 355–372; Clinton & Meirowitz, 2004, American Journal of Political Science, 48, 675–689) started to assess how knowledge about the sequence of votes may help us to understand the legislative process in more detail. Many of these analyses are, however, predicated on quite important assumptions regarding the forward-looking capacities of MPs. In this paper, this more recent literature is drawn on and brought to bear on an analysis of two bills adopted in the Swiss parliament. Having detailed information available on MPs’ preferences over various options voted upon, it is possible to test whether MPs behave strategically, and to what degree they are capable of anticipating the way forward through the agenda tree. Evidence is found that MPs behave strategically, but their foresight is not as perfect as one would expect from theoretical models.