Yemen and the Arab Spring: Elite Struggles,State Collapse and Regional Security

Yemen, the poorest and most populous country on the Arabian Peninsula, has long been a prime candidate to join the failed state club. After the wave of uprisings sweeping through the Middle East reached the country in early 2011, the already high levels of instability and violence reached new heights and threatened to accelerate a steady march towards collapse. Even though a variety of scenarios can be identified for the future of Yemen, the most likely paths all imply a period of prolonged instability. This will carry significant consequences for regional and international security, in particular, by providing al Qaeda's local franchise with an attractive safe haven from which to plan and launch operations.     

Bridging the Gap Between the Worlds of Ideas and Action

The World War II experience of public service created a generation of scholars who devoted themselves to policy-relevant research during the early Cold War. The Vietnam War led to a split between the two groups, and scholars and policymakers today inhabit two different worlds. Fortunately, it appears as though the relationship between the world of ideas and the world of action is entering a new phase. Both the academy and the nation would be better off if scholars were more involved in topics of interest to policymakers. However, building a closer relationship between these two worlds faces challenges.     

Al Qaeda Targeting Israel: Between Rhetoric and Reality

Al Qaeda leaders have often stated their desire to attack the state of Israel. But, while the intent and imperative of killing Israelis and Jews features prominently in al Qaeda rhetoric, it has rarely translated into operational attacks on the state of Israel, its citizens abroad, or Jews more generally.     

Estimating the Duration of Jihadi Terror Plots in the United States

The number of ongoing terror plots increases with the duration of time from plot initiation until plot execution or interdiction (whichever comes first), yet no estimate of the probability distribution governing terror plot duration has appeared in the open literature. To remedy this gap, jihadi terror plots in the United States were identified from terrorism-related indictments that occurred between 11 September 2001 and 30 June 2011 in addition to successful attacks. From a review of indictments, affidavits, and other publicly available information, it was possible to identify lower and upper bounds for the initiation date of the plot in question as well as the ending date corresponding to either the arrest of the suspect(s) eventually convicted or an attempted/actual act of terror. These observations enable estimation of the duration distribution of jihadi terror plots in the United States accounting for the censoring and truncation effects inherent with these data (technical details appear in the Appendix). The estimated mean plot duration equals 270 days (standard error of mean 40 days), while 95 percent of all plots are estimated to fall between 33 and 750 days. These estimates suggest that on average, approximately three ongoing terror plots have been active in the United States at any point since 11 September 2001.     

The psychodynamics of terrorism

This article deals with some of the psychodynamics of terrorism. The act of terrorism, the use of force to produce a fearful state of mind, is discussed with the distinctions drawn between target and victim, demands and aims. Those involved in the terrorist act include the terrorist, the victim, the target, and the audience. Topics dealt with include terrorism as the pursuit of the absolute end, as a response to lack of self‐esteem, as a promotion of a renewed sense of masculinity, as a reaction‐formation to positive feelings toward the target, and as a kind of symbol‐magic or sacrament of violence. Recommendations for dealing with acts of terrorism are included. This article will appear in a forthcoming book.     

Similarities or Differences in Identity Development? The Impact of Acculturation and Gender on Identity Process and Outcome

This study examined the effects of variations in acculturation and gender on identity processes and outcomes. Three hundred fifty-seven students at a culturally diverse university completed measures of identity processes (exploration, commitment, and identity style) and outcomes (identity status). The generalizability of the underlying identity processes across contextual variations was ascertained by evaluating the consistency of factor solutions across immigrant generation and gender. Results suggested that the processes underlying identity development are consistent across variations in acculturation and gender. Supplemental analyses revealed effects of acculturation and gender on the extent to which individuals utilized various identity processes and manifested various identity outcomes.