The narrative structure of policy analysis

This paper holds that the prior development of clear external criteria or principles is not always a useful avenue to the resolution of policy dilemmas, and that external criteria are sometimes as likely to emerge from proposed resolutions to policy issues as they are to govern those resolutions. In the absence of external criteria, stories meeting certain characteristics (truth, richness, consistency, congruency, and unity) can integrate necessary considerations, explain the development of current dilemmas, and point the way to resolutions. Not all policy analyses need to be in the narrative form-some analyses appropriately make tenseless arguments for particular principles. However, these principles invariably allow for many possible actions, and only a narrative can explain which particular course of action is desirable and why.     

Antecedents of deviant responses: Predicting from a general theory of deviant behavior

A statement of a general theory of deviant behavior asserts that four factors or processes intervene between the development of self-rejecting attitudes and adoption of deviant patterns. An earlier report demonstrated a relationship between antecedent negative self-attitudes and subsequent increases in seven variables that reflected these four factors. The present paper tests hypotheses that these seven variables are in turn related to the subsequent adoption of each of 22 deviant responses. Subjects were seventh-grade students (N=4694) who responded to questionnaires at T₁ and T₂ (a year later). The seven independent variables were measured by scale scores based on subject responses at T₁. Adoption of deviant responses was defined in terms of subject's selfreports of performing each of 22 deviant acts between T₁ and T₂ after having denied performance of the deviant act during a specified period prior to T₁. The results were interpreted as supporting the hypotheses, although relatively few exceptions were noted. These findings together with those of the earlier analysis were thus congruent with the theoretical position that the relationship between antecedent self-rejection and subsequent deviant responses is mediated by the subjective association of membership group experiences with feelings of self-rejection, the genesis of contranormative attitudes, the inability to satisfy the self-esteem motive through normative response patterns, and awareness of deviant alternatives to these normative patterns that in the past have failed to permit development of self-accepting attitudes.Received his Ph.D. in sociology from New York University in 1958. Current research interests are social psychiatry and, more specifically, the reciprocal relationship between self-attitudes and the adoption of deviant response patterns.     

Prisoner Dilemmas: The American Obsession with POWs and Hostages

For centuries, the issue of American hostages and POWs has had incredible emotional and political resonance. Driven by a combination of idealism, wrath, and concerns over reputation, the status of captive Americans can become a national obsession. While deeply moral in many respects, this intense focus can encourage risky rescue operations, deepen conflicts, and lead to more Americans being captured abroad. Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan both suffered grave political damage from hostage crises, and the recent capture of an American by Somali pirates highlights the continued danger that a hostage crisis could overshadow the presidency of Barack Obama. U.S. officials should publicly downplay the issue of hostages and POWs, and work quietly behind the scenes to free the men and women concerned.     

U.S. Military Fatalities in Iraq: A Perspective on Year 5

President Bush's surge strategy intends to use the might of the U.S. military to establish secure conditions in Iraq under which the promise of political progress will be realized. The U.S. military used this approach in the past when the U.S. Fallujah Offensive of late 2004 established security for the Iraqi Election Cycle in 2005. But the promise of political progress for insurgents was not fulfilled in 2006 upon formation of the Maliki government, and they resorted to extreme levels of violence in response, killing 1,080 U.S. troops during the 12 months ending September 2007, more than in any other comparable period. In the second half of Year 5, from September 2007 through the fifth anniversary of the war on March 19, 2008, U.S. forces in cooperation with Sunni insurgents and Shiite militias helped improve security conditions once again. But unless the surge's promise of political progress is fulfilled, the patience of the insurgents and militias is likely to dissipate and violence will increase once again in Year 6.