How reliable is the sub-population model in DNA testimony?

The performance of the sub-population model first proposed by Balding and Nichols [D.J. Balding, R.A. Nichols, DNA profile match probability calculation: how to allow for population stratification, relatedness, database selection and single bands. Forensic Sci. Int. 64 (1994) 125-140] is examined using a simulation approach. This work extends the investigations of Curran et al. [J.M. Curran, J.S. Buckleton, and C.M. Triggs, What is the magnitude of the sub-population effect? Forensic Sci. Int. 135 (2003) 1-8]. In particular the effect of underestimating the coancestry coefficient, theta, and the effect of departures from the modelling assumptions were investigated. The model tends to give strongly conservative estimates if the estimate for the coancestry coefficient is accurate. If this coefficient is underestimated then a larger fraction of cases give non-conservative estimates. Departures from the modelling assumption that the sub-population is in Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibria appear to have very little effect.     

UK Devolution and the European Union: A Tale of Cooperative Asymmetry?

The post-1999 devolution project has resulted in a major recalibrationof the preexisting arrangements for making European Union policywithin the United Kingdom. The devolved administrations in Scotlandand Wales (but not the English regions) have gained in electorallegitimacy and legislative powers, and thereby have a greaterclaim to consultation with UK central government. Four key characteristicsof European Union policymaking in a devolved United Kingdomare identified. The legal contingency of the "devolveds" statushas not yet impeded traditional cooperative relations betweengovernment tiers, but the stability of the new arrangementsremains in question. The UK case is compared with European Unionregionalization in other member states and a distinction isdrawn between a cooperative regionalist approach (the devolveds)and a consultative one (the English regions).     

Yield of illicit indoor cannabis cultivation in the Netherlands

To obtain a reliable estimation on the yield of illicit indoor cannabis cultivation in The Netherlands, cannabis plants confiscated by the police were used to determine the yield of dried female flower buds. The developmental stage of flower buds of the seized plants was described on a scale from 1 to 10 where the value of 10 indicates a fully developed flower bud ready for harvesting. Using eight additional characteristics describing the grow room and cultivation parameters, regression analysis with subset selection was carried out to develop two models for the yield of indoor cannabis cultivation. The median Dutch illicit grow room consists of 259 cannabis plants, has a plant density of 15 plants/m(2), and 510 W of growth lamps per m(2). For the median Dutch grow room, the predicted yield of female flower buds at the harvestable developmental stage (stage 10) was 33.7 g/plant or 505 g/m(2).     

Treatment of Gang Members Can Reduce Recidivism and Institutional Misconduct

Gang violence creates serious safety and security concerns in the community and prisons. Treated gang and nongang members recidivated significantly less in a 24-month follow-up than their untreated matched controls. Treatment consisted of high intensity cognitive-behavioral programs that follow the risk, need, and responsivity principles (Andrews & Bonta, 2003). The treated gang members who recidivated violently after treatment received significantly shorter sentences (i.e. they committed less serious offences) than their untreated matched controls. Untreated gang members had significantly higher rates of major (but not minor) institutional offences than the other three groups. Correctional treatment that follows the risk, need and responsivity principles appears able to reduce recidivism and major institutional misconduct. Effective correctional treatment should be considered as one of the approaches in the management and rehabilitation of incarcerated gang members.     

What Do We Learn from Graduate Admissions Committees? A Multiple Rater, Latent Variable Model, with Incomplete Discrete and Continuous Indicators

What do we really know about applicants to graduate school?How much information is in an applicant's file? What do we learnby having graduate admissions committees read and score applicantfiles? In this article, I develop a statistical model for measuringapplicant quality, combining the information in the committeemembers' ordinal ratings with the information in applicants'GRE scores. The model produces estimates of applicant qualitypurged of the influence of committee members' preferences overostensibly extraneous applicant characteristics, such as genderand intended field of study. An explicitly Bayesian approachis adopted for estimation and inference, making it straightforwardto obtain confidence intervals not only on latent applicantquality but over rank orderings of applicants and the probabilityof belonging in a set of likely admittees. Using data from applicationsto a highly ranked political science graduate program, I showthat there is considerable uncertainty in estimates of applicantquality, making it impossible to make authoritative distinctionsas to quality among large portions of the applicant pool. Themultiple rater model I develop here is extremely flexible andhas applications in fields as diverse as judicial politics,legislative politics, international relations, and public opinion.     

Autonomy and audit--striking the balance

The Data Protection Act 1998 purports to implement European legislation which aims to protect the privacy of individuals. There were such concerns about the implications of the Act for certain research and audit that it became necessary to enact further legislation to enable such essential activities to continue. Although this empowers the Secretary of State for Health to approve proposals for these purposes, there should still be a requirement that the use of identifiable personal information without consent must be justified on compelling public interest grounds. It is this that can confound those seeking to rely on such justification. There can either be too cavalier an approach to the issue, and/or there is little sense of what considerations should come into play. This paper attempts to highlight some of the difficulties that are theoretically raised by some audit activities and set out the legal framework within which they must operate. However, the key focus is on how ethical considerations might inform the public interest argument.     

Parteistrategien auf Oligopolistischen Issue-Märkten. Eine Empirische Analyse der Wahlprogrammatik in Deutschland, Dänemark, Österreich und den Niederlanden mit Hilfe des Gutenberg-Modells

Based on saliency theory, the idea of issue ownership means that parties enjoy specific electoral support on certain issues. Narud/Valen (2001) have shown, moreover, that parties in multi-party systems must use the right issue-marketing to gain votes. This paper takes up the idea of issue marketing, making particular use of the microeconomic Gutenberg Model. I will sketch an issue market in which parties can win or lose votes by modifying their programmatic positions. If a party neglects its historically typical core issues, and does not successfully replace these with new core issues, the party will lose votes. I will test my hypotheses using the CMP data set to do a panel regression for Germany, Denmark, Austria, and the Netherlands. This confirms the hypothesized connection between programmatic and voter popularity, especially for social democratic parties.     

Dr. Jekyll's waiver of Mr. Hyde's right to refuse medical treatment: Washington's new law authorizing mental health care advance directives needs additional protection

Mental health care advance directives are gaining popularity nationwide. Following a growing trend, the Washington State Legislature has recently passed a law allowing patients to draft mental health care advance directives that could be irrevocable. Patients who sign an irrevocable directive essentially waive their fundamental right to refuse treatment in the future. The United States Supreme Court has held that waivers of fundamental rights must be made knowingly, voluntarily, and intelligently. However, as passed, Washington's new law contains insufficient safeguards to guarantee such a waiver. This Comment proposes that the Washington State Legislature amend this law the require two additional protections: a "rights advocate" to explain the potential waiver of rights, and a written warning in the advance directive form. These safeguards will help ensure that patients make knowing and intelligent waivers of their fundamental right to refuse treatment.