Risk Factors and Drivers of Financial Sustainability in Local Government: An Empirical Study

The current international crisis in public finances has made financial sustainability a key issue for governments. Although the European Union (EU) and other international organisations have recommended governments to monitor demographic and economic variables, few studies have considered the influence of these variables on financial sustainability. This paper seeks to identify and analyse the drivers and risk factors that influence the financial sustainability of local government. The findings identify both risk factors (unemployment and population aged under 16 years) and drivers (budgetary outcome) of financial sustainability, which may constitute a useful basis for decision-taking by managers and policy-makers.     

Violence and visibility in oil palm and sugarcane conflicts: the case of Polochic Valley,Guatemala

ABSTRACT

Over the last two decades, the expansion of oil palm and sugarcane plantations in the Polochic Valley (Guatemala) has exacerbated the historical struggle of Maya-Q’eqchi’ peoples for land rights. Based on a mixed-methods approach, I examine the dynamics of the conflict between 1998 and 2014, focusing on the visibility, manifestation and intensity of violence and the role of Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) and peasant organizations in opposition to oil palm and sugarcane plantations. I show that the evolution of the conflict can be explained by changes in the strength of organizations' alliances due to tensions and lack of coordination, as well as the fear of state repression and the funding context of these organizations. These results allow me to discuss how violence, the role of these organizations and the dynamics of related events have influenced the visibility of the conflict associated with the expansion of oil palm and sugarcane plantations in the Polochic.     

Rural democratisation in Mexico's deep south: grassroots right-to-know campaigns in Guerrero

In Mexico's southern state of Guerrero, rural social and civic movements are increasingly claiming their right to information as a tool to hold the state publicly accountable, as part of their ongoing issue-specific social, economic, and civic struggles. This study reviews the historical, social and political landscape that grounds campaigns for rural democratisation in Guerrero, including Mexico's recent information access reforms and then compares two different regional social movements that have claimed the ‘right to know’. For some movements, the demand for information rights is part of a sustained strategy, for others it is a tactic, but the claim bridges both more resistance-oriented and more negotiation-oriented social and civic movements.     

Researching norms,narratives, and transitional justice: focus group methodology in post-conflict Croatia

This article is based on the assumption that norms can help better understand one of the expressivist aims of transitional justice, that of building a new narrative about the past. The main argument is that focus groups, as an interactive method of inquiry, are well suited to investigating how this “judicial” narrative interacts with the official and dominant war narrative in Croatia. Focus groups are more adept at this than other methodological approaches since they can effectively reflect independence of opinion; they lead to more truthful answers through spontaneity; they effectively probe taken-for-granted concepts; and they can more easily overcome distrust in post-conflict societies, especially with ex-combatants. The approach faces new challenges in such a situation since recruitment problems, insider/outsider status, and post-traumatic stress disorder, among other ethical concerns, present problems that often arise due to the group process. The powerful and unpredictable effect of the group dynamic can, therefore, provide a deep exploration of social norms, but it can also cause significant upset among participants. In this instance the methodology explores how widely accepted the war narrative is, how it is constructed, and how important the public believes it is not to question it.     

从“省直管县财政改革”迈向“省直管县行政改革”——安徽省直管县财政改革的调查与思考

安徽等地实行的省直管县财政改革和扩权强县改革,在创新财政体制、推动县域经济发展、提高行政管理效率等方面取得了明显成效,但省直管县财政体制与市管县行政体制并存也产生了亟待解决的问题。要从根本上解决这些问题,继续放大财政改革和扩权改革的体制能量与制度功效,必须适时启动和稳步推进省直管县行政改革,构建扁平化的省直管县公共行政体制。     

Montenegro,NATO and the divided society

In this paper we are investigating the political and social effects of Montenegro joining NATO. This issue is highly controversial and follows the political divisions in Montenegro, which motivated us to apply social cleavage theory. As method, we applied logistic regression clustered for standard error. We found that besides socio-demographic variables (ethnic division between Montenegrins and Serbs), the main line of the cleavage indicated by support of, or opposition to NATO membership falls along the issues of the independence of Montenegro, its relationship with the EU vs. Russia, as well as the attitude toward political power and party identification.     

Perilous semi-presidentialism? On the democratic performance of Timor-Leste government system

ABSTRACT

Timor-Leste chose semi-presidentialism as its government system to steer the country towards a democratic state. This government system became popular in the course of the ‘Third Wave’ of democratization, but has no other example in Southeast Asia. The Timorese Constituent Assembly was guided not by an appraisal of the virtues and pitfalls of competing systems, but by historical and political factors that led it to craft an institutional solution in line with significant features of Timorese society. Yet the specific form of semi-presidentialism adopted in Timor-Leste (‘president-parliamentarism’) is regarded in the literature as prone to instability. However, in spite of episodes of instability, the conclusion emerging from three consecutive presidencies is one of positive steps in democracy-building and consolidation. This is mainly due to the emergence of ‘independent’ presidents who have sought power-sharing arrangements and promoted inclusive governance.     

Illegal Economic and Transit Migration in the Czech Republic: A Study of Individual Migrants' Behaviour

This article examines the essential features of international migration and the illegal working activities of migrants in the Czech Republic, with a closer insight into the processes of trafficking and smuggling. The research is based on semi-structured interviews with 63 illegal migrants, both from countries of the former Soviet Union (mainly Ukraine) and developing countries in 2005 and 2006. The main conclusion of the analysis is that, in many ways, the situation of illegal labour and transit migration in the Czech Republic is similar to that in countries with a longer experience as target countries for immigration.