Felony voir dire

The practice of voir dire has a venerable history in the United States. However, despite numerous historical and legal discussions of the topic, and the increased participation of social scientists in the process, few empirical studies have been conducted on what actually occurs during voir dire. The lack of normative data is especially troublesome in the face of recent attacks on the process itself and numerous proposals to drastically limit or even prohibit what many regard as an important criminal justice safeguard—attorney-conducted voir dire in felony trials. This exploratory study attempts to provide some insight into the nature and content of felony voir dire. Our results—based on direct observation as well as juror interview responses—suggest that much of the criticism and calls for drastic reform may be misplaced.     

Forecasting economies in transition: The case of Romania

Structural change is endemic in the Eastern European economies and the newly emerging Commonwealth of Independent States yet conventional econometric modelling techniques proceed under the assumption that there is a structurally stable ‘true’ economy to be discovered. This paper extends the analysis of Hall (1993) by exploring the consequences of endemic structural change for forecasting and building structural econometric models. We propose a model formulation which makes the econometric model itself able to adjust its parameters in the light of economic change using the Kalman Filter. The paper then illustrates this approach by building a small model of Romania and investigating its forecasting properties.     

Earnings inequality in Hungary: A comparative analysis of household and enterprise survey data

This study examines trends in the distribution of gross earnings in Hungary since 1988, using official household budget surveys and enterprise-based earnings surveys. We find a significant growth in inequality since 1988, to levels comparable with western Europe. There is little evidence of a serious discrepancy between the two data sources used.     

Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries

This paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation, exchange rate changes and GDP shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these countries. We can then examine the way the conditional correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries has been evolving over time. Our results suggest that the shocks which hit the EU are not symmetrical with those affecting the majority of new member countries. In addition, most of the new member countries seem to exhibit relatively low correlation with EU15.     

Personal fraud victims and their official responses to victimization

The bulk of the research on predatory crime focuses on characteristics, profiles, and patterns of offenders. This information is important, but from the perspective of police agencies, information about the victims of predatory crimes, including victims of white-collar predatory crimes, and how they officially respond to victimization is also important. Using survey data from a random sample of 400 residents of Knox County, Tennessee, we investigated the characteristics of victims of thirteen different types of fraud. After dividing individuals into categories of non-victims, one-time victims, and repeat victims, we develop profiles of personal fraud victims by examining differences in key demographic and offense characteristics. Next, we investigate the official reporting behavior of victims. The results are instructive for police agencies as they highlight common characteristics of fraud victims and suggest methods for encouraging fraud victims to report their victimization to police.