Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

Managing the Environment: Rhetoric, Policy and Reality

This article argues that, despite environmental issues climbing higher on the political agenda and considerable recent policy activity, rhetoric is not matched by reality in our efforts to manage the Australian environment. We integrate the imperatives emerging from the policy and sustainability literatures and from actual policy, with detailed work on wildlife conservation in Victoria's Central Highlands. Our analysis demonstrates that, rather than undertaking the more intensive policy and 'adaptive management' that is needed, governments are often doing less and may actually be 'taking their hands of their wheel'. Some public policy and administration implications of the emerging policy field of sustainability are illustrated.     

Asian literature as a tool for cultural identity creation in Europe. Goethe’s Hafiz

By the eighteenth century the colonial powers in Europe already had well-defined images and self-images, crystalised from their native cultures, their significance within Europe, and their mercantile and political relations with other continents. Yet Germany, which would have no prospect of a unified polity till late in the following century, remained severely challenged in all these respects. From the mid eighteenth century, however, Germany’s greatest minds sought to mould for it a cultural identity, and as a vital step in this, the poet, statesman and scientist Goethe, a man indebted to a form of patronage which peculiarly qualified him to undertake such experiments, conducted a series of literary encounters with the great traditions of Asia. Their purpose was to situate Germany within the wider world culture, for one can only be a cultural force within a world to which one has some cultural relation. Goethe’s forays into the worlds of Persian, Indian and Chinese literature were attempts at creative imitation, cultural absorption and public confrontation, but their culture-building and appropriative character was also a form of vicarious imperialism, a new-world enterprise conducted by means of old-world patronage. Goethe’s carefully nuanced representations in the West-Eastern Divan indicate the advocacy of a secular cosmopolitanism, the popular impact of which has been hitherto underestimated.     

WORKING TOGETHER

Family Court of Australia has employed four Aboriginal Family Consultants within the Family Court Mediation Service in Darwin and Alice Springs. The consultants were selected from local indigenous people and assist indigenous families who are often in heated dispute over children following family breakdown and separation. The program ultimately seeks to promote access to justice for Aboriginal and Torres Stvait Islander people in the jurisdiction of family law. The program seeks to achieve this by assisting indigenous people to access and utilize the dispute resolution services provided by the Family Court. Family consultants work closely with court mediators in responding to the needs and issues of indigenous families in dispute. The article describes the model of intervention adopted and highlights the benefits of the program with reference to case studies.     

Leadership Harvard Style

The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard is teaching a new approach to leadership. This article outlines some of the elements of this approach and contrasts them with standard models on leadership in the literature.