The quiet revolution in the scientific study of international politics and foreign policy

The application of quantitative international political and foreign policy research to real decision-making and forecasting problems has been quietly progressing over the past ten years. However, this quest for relevance has not been targeted at the highest policy-making levels; rather the applications have occurred at the middle- and low-level policy support and analysis levels. Specifically, applied analysts have profiled crisis management problem areas, developed a computer-based early warning and monitoring system, developed and applied several Bayesian forecasting techniques, and developed a computer-based crisis management decision aid which have all been used to solve specific analytical problems within the U.S. Department of Defense. Nearly all of the applied research is interdisciplinary. All is problem-oriented, and a great deal is computer-based. In all likelihood the number of applications will increase as the complexity of international and foreign affairs increases. The national security decision- and policy-making analytical process will thus become more pluralized and, because of the computer-based nature of much of the research, more accelerated and concentrated. Thusfar the impact can be said to be positive; the future will enlarge or shrink the role of applied quantitative analysis in response to how beneficial such analyses actually are to real national security problems.     

Who should America welcome?

He also serves as a fellow with the Hudson Institute and the California-based Alexis de Tocqueville Institution.     

The Impact of Proportional Representation on Government Effectiveness: The New Zealand Experience

It is often claimed that proportional representation (PR) undermines government effectiveness, including decisional efficacy, fiscal prudence, electoral responsiveness and accountability. Drawing on New Zealand's experience since the introduction of a mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system in 1996, this article examines the impact of the new voting system on government effectiveness. Although government durability has been substantially reduced and the policy-making process has become more complex, governments under MMP appear to be no less able to address major policy problems or respond to changing economic circumstances. Moreover, New Zealand has maintained continuous fiscal surpluses under MMP — a radical departure from the protracted, and often large, deficits that characterised the previous two decades under a majoritarian electoral system.     

Cost disease versus Leviathan explanations of rising government cost: An empirical investigation

In this paper we reexamine the apparently conflicting empirics of Borcherding et al. (1977) versus those of Barry and Lowery (1984). The latter, designed to test the cost disease versus bureau voting power hypotheses on US Citibase annual data between 1947 to 1979, was retested for the longer period available through 1989. Second, and more importantly, we isolate and test for the presence of a second channel for the exercise of bureaucratic power. That channel is the bureau's ability to use its information advantage to capture a portion of newly generated government rents through higher personal benefits (such as higher salaries). Such an analysis (following West, 1991) requires first that those factors generating new rents for government actually result in successful bureaucratic rent-seeking in the form of higher compensation levels. In addition, the analysis requires that these “artificial” increases in bureaucratic wages show up as significant determinants of the higher cost of providing government services. Incorporating a constructed Kau/Rubin variable into the Barry and Lowery database is then shown to improve the predictive power of both the cost disease and bureaucratic power hypotheses for US annual data between 1948 and 1989.     

Reforming Central Banking STEPHEN KIRCHNER

This book is about which monetary institutions and monetary regimes are most likely to promote: price stability. As such it is a welcome addition to the literature on this much debated question, especially because it provides such a lucid account of Kirchner's side of the debate. The questions he explores are important because central banks have become much more significant in recent times. Indeed, momentous changes in political economy, especially in the last decade in the wake of global and domestic financial deregulation, have propelled monetary policy and central banks to a new prominence.     

Next generation of individual account pension reforms in Latin America

Latin America led the world in introducing individual retirement accounts intended to complement or replace defined benefit state-sponsored, pay-as-you-go systems. After Chile implemented the first system in 1981, a number of other Latin American countries incorporated privately managed individual accounts as part of their retirement income systems beginning in the 1990s. This article examines the subsequent "reform of the reform" of these pension systems, with a focus on the recent overhaul of the Chilean system and major reforms in Mexico, Peru, and Colombia. The authors analyze key elements of pension reform in the region relating to individual accounts: system coverage, fees, competition, investment, the impact of gender on benefits, financial education, voluntary savings, and payouts.